Spartak Pleven is expected to emerge victorious in this match, with the home side's recent form a notable storyline. The team has been on a 2-game winning run, including a 2-1 victory over Marek. Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, on the other hand, is coming off a defeat, having lost 1-2 to Ludogorets II. The model predicts a home win with a probability of 59%, while the draw and away win probabilities stand at 23% and 18% respectively.
The expected total number of goals is 3.1, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 10.8%. Spartak Pleven's home form is impressive, with an average of 1.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded, particularly against similar-strength opponents. Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa's away form is less convincing, with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded.
The model's selection is the home win, and it also suggests Over 1.5 with a probability of 82.1%. This is a strong edge for the model, with a probability of 82.1%. The home win percentage is 59%, the draw percentage is 23%, and the away win percentage is 18%.
Results analysis
Spartak Pleven's recent struggles continued as they suffered a 0-1 defeat to Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, extending their run of consecutive losses to four. The win extends Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa's streak to two games, coming off the back of a 1-0 victory over Spartak Pleven. The pre-match favourite, home win, failed to materialise, as the model's selection was wrong. The model's call was correct for Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa to win, which had a pre-match probability of 19%. The model's selection, home win, had a pre-match probability of 58%. Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa's win was the model's selection's only correct call, with the model's selection for Over 1.5 goals missing with a probability of 81.9%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Spartak Pleven win✗ Miss
58.2%
Avg Implied 50.7% · @ 1.77
Edge
+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.83
Dafabet
1.82
888Sport
1.80
William Hil
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Draw✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied 27.8% · @ 3.23
Edge
-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.40
1xBet
3.28
Marathonbet
3.28
Unibet
3.25
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win✓ Hit
18.5%
Avg Implied 21.5% · @ 4.17
Edge
-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.34
Unibet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.25
William Hil
4.20
Bet365
4.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Spartak Pleven
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.27
1.64
1.21
1.12
1.31
vs Stronger (12)
1.00
2.17
1.20
2.00
0.86
2.29
vs Similar (18)
1.61
0.67
1.89
0.78
1.33
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.80
1.00
1.33
1.00
2.27
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
2.25
0.50
1.67
0.83
2.83
vs Similar (18)
1.22
1.50
1.33
1.11
1.11
1.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-25pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Pleven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
81.9%
@ 1.32+13.5%
Under 1.5
18.1%
@ 2.87-13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.33
888Sport
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Unibet
1.30
Under
Unibet
2.90
Pinnacle
2.90
888Sport
2.90
Marathonbet
2.83
1xBet
2.83
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.0%
@ 2.04+14.1%
Under 2.5
41.0%
@ 1.66-14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.10
Pinnacle
2.09
Marathonbet
2.07
1xBet
2.07
Betano
2.02
Under
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.65
10Bet
1.65
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.6%
@ 3.62+11.5%
Under 3.5
63.4%
@ 1.21-11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
3.80
Marathonbet
3.58
1xBet
3.58
Unibet
3.50
Under
888Sport
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Unibet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.5%
@ 1.91+9.7%
No
42.5%
@ 1.74-9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
1.91
Unibet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.91
William Hil
1.91
1xBet
1.91
No
1xBet
1.77
William Hil
1.75
888Sport
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
Unibet
1.71
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%@ 6.08+4.6%
2-1
9.9%@ 7.67+4.9%
2-0
9.4%@ 7.31+4.2%
1-0
8.4%@ 5.77+1.8%
3-1
6.6%@ 13.96+3.9%
3-0
6.3%@ 13.04+3.3%
0-0
5.7%@ 7.97+0.9%
1-2
5.3%@ 12.75+2.3%
Spartak Pleven goals ↓
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
4.0%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
1
8.4%
11%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.4%
9.9%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
3
6.3%
6.6%
3.5%
1.2%
0.3%
4
3.1%
3.3%
1.8%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spartak Pleven goals (down), columns = Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Fratria
2.17
Vihren
2.00
CSKA Sofia II
1.83
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.83
Beroe
1.67
Yantra 2019
1.67
Montana
1.67
Nesebar
1.67
Ludogorets II
1.33
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.33
Marek
1.17
Spartak Pleven
1.17
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.17
Hebar 1918
1.17
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Sportist Svoge
1.00
Dobrudzha
0.83
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Spartak Pleven and Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa are level in average points per game (both 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nesebar
2.17
Montana
2.00
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
2.00
Hebar 1918
1.83
Vihren
1.83
CSKA Sofia II
1.67
Beroe
1.50
Fratria
1.33
Yantra 2019
1.17
Dobrudzha
1.17
Marek
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.83
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
0.83
Rilski Sportist
0.83
Sportist Svoge
0.50
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.50
Spartak Pleven is 0.17 goals better than Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.50
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.67
Sportist Svoge
0.67
Marek
1.00
Beroe
1.00
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.17
Ludogorets II
1.17
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.17
Dobrudzha
1.33
Montana
1.33
Spartak Pleven
1.50
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.50
Nesebar
1.50
Hebar 1918
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.67
Spartak Pleven and Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Spartak Pleven or Draw✗ Miss
81.5%
Avg Implied -
58%
23%
19%
covers Spartak Pleven + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven or Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa✓ Hit
76.7%
Avg Implied -
58%
23%
19%
covers Spartak Pleven + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa✓ Hit
41.8%
Avg Implied -
58%
23%
19%
covers Draw + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Spartak Pleven
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.93
0.57
0.38
0.62
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.92
0.80
0.80
0.29
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.39
1.00
0.44
0.44
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.03
0.53
0.67
0.47
1.40
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.72
0.56
0.44
0.56
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Pleven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spartak Pleven over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Spartak Pleven
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.71
0.64
0.75
0.69
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
1.25
0.40
1.20
0.57
1.29
vs Similar (18)
0.89
0.28
0.89
0.33
0.89
0.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.47
0.67
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.67
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.78
0.78
0.67
0.56
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Pleven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spartak Pleven over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.9%
1.32
Pinnacle
1.33
888Sport
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Unibet
1.30
+13.5%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
VIH (18)
€2m
EVT (23)
€2m
C1B (19)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
BER (13)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Spartak Pleven and Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
H1 (8)
€2m
VIH (9)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
BER (5)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
Spartak Pleven and Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
VIH (3)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
DOB (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
H1 (2)
€0m
BER (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Spartak Pleven and Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
H1 (9)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
BER (6)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
VIH (6)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Spartak Pleven and Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Fratria
Vihren
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
CSKA Sofia II
Nesebar
Montana
Beroe
Yantra 2019
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Ludogorets II
Marek
Hebar 1918
Rilski Sportist
Sportist Svoge
Dobrudzha
Pirin Blagoevgrad