Spartak Pleven, facing Ludogorets II at home, are expected to keep the match tight, with the model projecting a 40 % chance of a home win, 33 % for a draw and 27 % for an away win. The most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, a 14.7 % probability, while the average goal tally is 2.0. Spartak’s home form shows they average 1.2 goals scored and concede 2.0 against stronger opposition, whereas Ludogorets II, on the road, average 0.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded against weaker teams. Recent form hints at a cautious start: Spartak come off a 0-1 defeat, and Ludogorets II are after two straight losses. The model’s selections favor a low-scoring affair: Under 7.5 goals 99.9 %, Under 6.599.5 %, Away under 3.5 goals98.6 %, Under 5.598.2 %, Home under 3.5 goals97.1 %, Under 4.594.3 %, Away under 2.5 goals93.7 %, and a Home +2 handicap90.1 %.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Spartak Pleven win
37.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
33.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II win
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Spartak Pleven
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.50
1.50
1.14
0.94
1.81
vs Stronger (13)
1.00
2.23
1.20
1.60
0.88
2.62
vs Similar (17)
1.35
0.94
1.67
0.89
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ludogorets II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.10
2.00
1.33
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.11
1.16
1.88
1.50
0.55
0.91
vs Weaker (11)
1.64
1.00
2.14
1.14
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
23% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Pleven) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
60.1%
Under 1.5
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
31.7%
Under 2.5
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
13.8%
Under 3.5
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
40.5%
No
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.2%
1-1
14.8%
1-0
13.5%
0-1
11.3%
2-0
7.9%
2-1
7.2%
1-2
6.1%
0-2
5.7%
Spartak Pleven goals ↓
Ludogorets II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
11%
5.7%
1.7%
0.4%
1
13%
15%
6.1%
1.8%
0.4%
2
7.9%
7.2%
3.3%
1.0%
0.2%
3
2.8%
2.5%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.7%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spartak Pleven goals (down), columns = Ludogorets II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vihren
2.14
CSKA Sofia II
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Yantra 2019
1.86
Montana
1.57
Beroe
1.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Marek
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Rilski Sportist
1.29
Ludogorets II
1.14
Hebar 1918
1.14
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Sportist Svoge
0.86
Dobrudzha
0.71
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Spartak Pleven is 0.14 points worse than Ludogorets II in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA Sofia II
2.14
Vihren
2.14
Nesebar
1.86
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.86
Montana
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.71
Beroe
1.29
Fratria
1.29
Yantra 2019
1.29
Marek
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.57
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.43
Spartak Pleven is 0.29 goals better than Ludogorets II in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.57
Marek
0.86
Beroe
0.86
Sportist Svoge
0.86
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Montana
1.14
Ludogorets II
1.14
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.29
Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Hebar 1918
1.86
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.43
Spartak Pleven is 0.86 goals worse than Ludogorets II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Spartak Pleven or Draw
71.0%
Avg Implied -
37%
34%
29%
covers Spartak Pleven + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven or Ludogorets II
66.4%
Avg Implied -
37%
34%
29%
covers Spartak Pleven + Ludogorets II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ludogorets II
62.7%
Avg Implied -
37%
34%
29%
covers Draw + Ludogorets II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Spartak Pleven over/under 0.5
Over
65.6%
Under
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 1.5
Over
28.9%
Under
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 2.5
Over
9.3%
Under
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 3.5
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 0.5
Over
59.7%
Under
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 1.5
Over
23.1%
Under
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 2.5
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 3.5
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Spartak Pleven, so a minus line means Spartak Pleven give that many goals of a start and Ludogorets II receive them. At -1, Spartak Pleven must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Spartak Pleven win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Spartak Pleven)
Spartak Pleven -2
4.7%
Draw -2
10.8%
Ludogorets II +2
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Spartak Pleven)
Spartak Pleven -1
15.4%
Draw -1
21.9%
Ludogorets II +1
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Spartak Pleven)
Spartak Pleven +1
71.0%
Draw +1
18.4%
Ludogorets II -1
10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Spartak Pleven)
Spartak Pleven +2
89.4%
Draw +2
7.8%
Ludogorets II -2
2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Spartak Pleven
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.86
0.50
0.38
0.88
vs Stronger (13)
0.54
0.85
0.80
0.40
0.38
1.12
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.59
0.89
0.56
0.38
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ludogorets II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
1.20
0.80
0.27
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.58
1.12
0.88
0.18
0.36
vs Weaker (11)
1.00
0.64
1.29
0.71
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Pleven) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spartak Pleven over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Spartak Pleven
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.64
0.64
0.56
0.94
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.38
0.40
1.20
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.35
0.78
0.33
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ludogorets II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.50
0.80
0.53
0.33
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.58
0.75
0.62
0.36
0.55
vs Weaker (11)
0.64
0.36
0.86
0.43
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Pleven) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spartak Pleven over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
VIH (18)
€2m
EVT (23)
€2m
C1B (19)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
BER (13)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Spartak Pleven and Ludogorets II have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
H1 (8)
€2m
VIH (9)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
BER (5)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
Spartak Pleven and Ludogorets II have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
VIH (3)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
DOB (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
H1 (2)
€0m
BER (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Spartak Pleven and Ludogorets II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
H1 (9)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
BER (6)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
VIH (6)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Spartak Pleven and Ludogorets II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vihren
CSKA Sofia II
Fratria
Yantra 2019
Montana
Beroe
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Nesebar
Marek
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Rilski Sportist
Hebar 1918
Sportist Svoge
Dobrudzha
Pirin Blagoevgrad