Spartak Pleven's recent form note suggests they're coming off a draw, which could indicate a stabilizing influence on their defensive numbers. They've conceded an average of 1.18 goals at home against similar opponents. Marek, on the other hand, have struggled to score away from home, averaging just 0.4 goals per game against similar opponents. The model predicts a low-scoring match, with a 28% chance of exactly 2 goals being scored.
The home side, Spartak Pleven, are the favourites to win, with a 46% chance of victory. The model's selection is a home win. The expected total goals is 2.1, with a most likely score of 1-1, which has a 14.2% chance. Spartak Pleven's form at home is mixed, scoring an average of 1.82 goals and conceding 1.18. Marek's away form is poor, scoring 0.4 goals and conceding 1.7 against similar opponents.
The model's suggested picks include Under 3.5, which has an 83.3% chance of being correct. This pick has an edge of 4%, suggesting a slight advantage for this selection. The probabilities for the match result are: 46% for a home win, 31% for a draw, and 23% for an away win.
Results analysis
The win extends Spartak Pleven's recent run of inconsistent form, but they managed to secure a crucial three points at home. The final score was 2-1, confirming the actual result of Home win. The model's selection, Home win, was correct, given its pre-match probability of 46%. The model's call was vindicated, as the favourite was indeed Spartak Pleven. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 83.3%, while the most likely total goals was 2, with a probability of 28%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Spartak Pleven win✓ Hit
45.7%
Avg Implied 40.5% · @ 2.21
Edge
+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.27
Dafabet
2.26
William Hil
2.25
1xBet
2.22
Betano
2.22
Draw✗ Miss
31.3%
Avg Implied 31.6% · @ 2.83
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.00
Betfair
2.90
Unibet
2.88
Bet365
2.88
Betano
2.87
Marek win✗ Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied 27.9% · @ 3.21
Edge
-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.38
Marathonbet
3.30
Pinnacle
3.30
Dafabet
3.30
Superbet
3.25
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Spartak Pleven
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.30
1.57
1.29
1.00
1.31
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
2.18
1.20
2.00
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (19)
1.47
0.79
1.78
0.89
1.20
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Marek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marek
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.17
1.29
1.00
0.75
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.00
1.17
1.29
1.00
0.75
1.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Pleven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.1%
@ 1.45+1.2%
Under 1.5
35.9%
@ 2.45-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
Superbet
1.44
Unibet
1.43
Under
Superbet
2.47
1xBet
2.46
Marathonbet
2.46
Pinnacle
2.45
Unibet
2.43
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
35.8%
@ 2.39-2.3%
Under 2.5
64.2%
@ 1.47+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.48
Unibet
2.40
Superbet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.38
Under
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
1xBet
1.46
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.7%
@ 4.39-3.9%
Under 3.5
83.3%
@ 1.14+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.45
Marathonbet
4.45
Unibet
4.40
Superbet
4.25
Under
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
42.5%
@ 2.03-2.6%
No
57.5%
@ 1.67+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
1xBet
2.03
Unibet
2.02
Superbet
2.02
No
Superbet
1.71
William Hil
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
Unibet
1.63
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%@ 5.29+7.0%
1-0
14.0%@ 5.58+7.3%
0-0
13.2%@ 6.19+7.1%
2-0
9.9%@ 8.77+5.6%
0-1
8.7%@ 7.16+3.4%
2-1 ✓
8.3%@ 8.70+4.0%
1-2
5.4%@ 11.25+2.1%
3-0
4.2%@ 18.64+2.2%
Spartak Pleven goals ↓
Marek goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
8.7%
4.2%
1.2%
0.2%
1
14%
14%
5.4%
1.5%
0.3%
2
9.9%
8.3%
3.5%
1.0%
0.2%
3
4.2%
3.6%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.4%
1.1%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spartak Pleven goals (down), columns = Marek goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Yantra 2019
2.00
Fratria
1.97
Vihren
1.81
CSKA Sofia II
1.72
Beroe
1.71
Dobrudzha
1.61
Montana
1.55
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.44
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.38
Nesebar
1.36
Rilski Sportist
1.36
Ludogorets II
1.28
Marek
1.28
Hebar 1918
1.25
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.19
Spartak Pleven
1.09
Sportist Svoge
1.06
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.03
Spartak Pleven is 0.19 points worse than Marek in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 1.28).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Fratria
1.91
Vihren
1.84
CSKA Sofia II
1.78
Beroe
1.57
Dobrudzha
1.49
Montana
1.43
Yantra 2019
1.41
Ludogorets II
1.28
Hebar 1918
1.28
Nesebar
1.26
Rilski Sportist
1.26
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.22
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.19
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.19
Spartak Pleven
1.16
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.03
Sportist Svoge
0.88
Marek
0.84
Spartak Pleven is 0.31 goals better than Marek in terms of goals scored per game (1.16 vs 0.84).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Yantra 2019
0.75
Fratria
0.91
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Beroe
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.06
Vihren
1.06
Marek
1.09
Montana
1.11
Nesebar
1.26
Rilski Sportist
1.26
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.28
Ludogorets II
1.34
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.34
Spartak Pleven
1.41
Sportist Svoge
1.50
Hebar 1918
1.59
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.62
Spartak Pleven is 0.31 goals worse than Marek in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 1.09).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Spartak Pleven
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.93
0.64
0.31
0.62
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
0.91
0.80
0.80
0.17
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.47
1.00
0.56
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Marek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marek
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.57
0.36
0.50
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.53
0.57
0.57
0.36
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Pleven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spartak Pleven over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Spartak Pleven
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
0.64
0.64
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
1.27
0.40
1.20
0.50
1.33
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.32
0.78
0.33
0.80
0.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Marek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marek
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.71
0.64
0.25
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.47
0.60
0.71
0.64
0.25
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Pleven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spartak Pleven over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Pleven over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
83.3%
1.14
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Unibet
1.12
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BER (37)
€11m
CSI (46)
€9m
LI (41)
€9m
DOB (38)
€8m
MON (42)
€6m
FRA (39)
€4m
H1 (46)
€4m
Y2 (30)
€4m
VIH (39)
€3m
PB (39)
€3m
EVT (38)
€3m
C1B (33)
€3m
MAR (39)
€2m
LGO (37)
€2m
SP (34)
€2m
SS (41)
€2m
Spartak Pleven and Marek have a similar squad value (both €2m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →