Spartak Varna face CSKA Sofia in a match the model predicts will end in an away win, with a 52% chance for CSKA, 29% for a draw and 19% for a Spartak victory. The expected total goals hover around 2.3, and the most likely scoreline is 0-1 for CSKA, a 13.8% probability. Spartak, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages only 0.75 goals scored and concedes 3.5, while CSKA, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.14 goals scored and 0.86 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (99.1%), Under 6.5 (99.1% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (98.2%), Under 5.5 (97.0% with a 5% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.1%) and Home under 2.5 goals (95.2%). Spartak’s recent form shows three straight defeats, while CSKA is coming off a loss but has won two of its last five.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Spartak Varna win
17.8%
Avg Implied 17.0% · @ 5.42
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
6.40
Bet365
6.00
Dafabet
5.60
Marathonbet
5.55
BetVictor
5.50
Draw
28.3%
Avg Implied 23.9% · @ 3.86
Edge
+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
4.10
Dafabet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.94
CSKA Sofia win
53.9%
Avg Implied 59.1% · @ 1.56
Edge
-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
William Hil
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Dafabet
1.56
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Spartak Varna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.77
1.13
1.73
0.60
1.80
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
3.50
0.80
3.00
0.00
6.00
vs Similar (24)
0.92
1.33
1.30
1.10
0.64
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSKA Sofia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.93
1.69
0.94
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.85
1.08
0.83
1.33
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (17)
1.71
0.82
2.20
0.70
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Varna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.9%
@ 1.24-6.5%
Under 1.5
32.1%
@ 3.62+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.10
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.68
BetVictor
3.60
Betano
3.55
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
40.2%
@ 1.83-11.0%
Under 2.5
59.8%
@ 1.92+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.87
Bet365
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.96
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
SBO
1.93
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.9%
@ 3.03-10.7%
Under 3.5
80.1%
@ 1.34+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.10
Betfair
3.10
BetVictor
3.10
Pinnacle
3.03
Bet365
3.00
Under
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Both teams to score
Yes
43.2%
@ 1.84-6.8%
No
56.8%
@ 1.84+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.90
Superbet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.83
No
William Hil
1.91
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
14.2%@ 6.25+7.1%
1-1
13.0%@ 6.97+6.7%
0-2
11.7%@ 6.76+5.2%
0-0
11.3%@ 9.79+6.8%
1-2
9.0%@ 7.29+3.0%
1-0
6.6%@ 13.28+3.3%
0-3
5.9%@ 10.59+1.8%
2-1
4.6%@ 15.51+1.7%
Spartak Varna goals ↓
CSKA Sofia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
14%
12%
5.9%
2.3%
1
6.6%
13%
9.0%
4.6%
1.7%
2
3.0%
4.6%
3.5%
1.8%
0.7%
3
0.8%
1.2%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spartak Varna goals (down), columns = CSKA Sofia goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Levski Sofia
3.00
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.50
Ludogorets
2.43
Arda Kardzhali
2.29
Spartak Varna
1.17
Septemvri Sofia
1.14
Botev Plovdiv
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Dunav Ruse
0.57
Cherno More Varna
0.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
0.50
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Spartak Varna is 1.50 points worse than CSKA Sofia in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 2.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levski Sofia
2.86
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.17
Ludogorets
1.71
Arda Kardzhali
1.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.17
Spartak Varna
1.17
Botev Plovdiv
1.14
Cherno More Varna
1.14
Dunav Ruse
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Septemvri Sofia
0.71
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Spartak Varna is 1.50 goals worse than CSKA Sofia in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 2.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arda Kardzhali
0.57
Levski Sofia
0.57
CSKA Sofia
0.67
Ludogorets
0.71
CSKA 1948
0.83
Slavia Sofia
0.86
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.43
Septemvri Sofia
1.43
Botev Plovdiv
1.71
Spartak Varna
1.83
Lokomotiv Sofia
2.00
Dunav Ruse
2.00
Botev Vratsa
2.14
Cherno More Varna
2.29
Spartak Varna is 1.17 goals worse than CSKA Sofia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Levski Sofia
63%
Slavia Sofia
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Spartak Varna
For 3.4 · Against 6.4 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 12.8 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
CSKA Sofia
For 5.5 · Against 3.1 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 11.2 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Spartak Varna
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.1
10.1
3.1
3.5
2.6
21.8
22.6
20.8
vs Stronger (13)
11.1
10.8
11.3
4.2
5.0
3.4
20.7
23.4
18.5
vs Similar (37)
9.5
9.7
9.2
2.7
3.1
2.3
22.4
22.3
22.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
56%
57%
44%
52%
36%
50%
56%
43%
% under line
43%
44%
43%
56%
48%
64%
50%
44%
57%
This opponent (CSKA Sofia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSKA Sofia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.2
8.9
3.1
2.8
3.4
24.5
23.9
25.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
6.5
9.5
5.0
3.4
2.4
4.4
28.7
26.5
29.8
vs Weaker (34)
9.8
9.2
10.4
3.0
2.9
3.0
23.3
23.4
23.2
% over line
54%
58%
50%
42%
36%
48%
73%
75%
71%
% under line
46%
42%
50%
58%
64%
52%
27%
25%
29%
This opponent (Spartak Varna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Slavia Sofia
10.6
Botev Plovdiv
10.1
Spartak Varna
10.0
CSKA Sofia
9.6
Levski Sofia
9.5
CSKA 1948
9.4
Ludogorets
9.4
Lokomotiv Sofia
9.4
Botev Vratsa
9.4
Septemvri Sofia
9.1
Cherno More Varna
9.0
Arda Kardzhali
8.7
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arda Kardzhali
5.2
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
5.0
Septemvri Sofia
5.0
Botev Vratsa
4.8
Spartak Varna
4.8
CSKA Sofia
4.8
Ludogorets
4.8
Cherno More Varna
4.7
Slavia Sofia
4.7
Levski Sofia
4.6
Botev Plovdiv
4.5
Dunav Ruse
4.5
CSKA 1948
4.2
Lokomotiv Sofia
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cherno More Varna
25.1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
25.0
Botev Vratsa
24.7
Levski Sofia
24.5
Arda Kardzhali
24.4
Slavia Sofia
23.9
Lokomotiv Sofia
23.9
Septemvri Sofia
22.8
CSKA 1948
22.7
Spartak Varna
22.7
CSKA Sofia
22.6
Botev Plovdiv
22.4
Ludogorets
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
44.9%
@ 1.71-9.3%
Under 9.5
55.1%
@ 2.02+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.78
Superbet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.75
Unibet
1.55
Under
Unibet
2.23
Pinnacle
1.98
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
73.5%
Under 3.5
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
59.7%
Under 21.5
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Spartak Varna or Draw
46.1%
Avg Implied 40.4% · @ 2.30
Edge
+5.7%
18%
28%
54%
covers Spartak Varna + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Unibet
2.38
Betano
2.37
Marathonbet
2.31
Spartak Varna or CSKA Sofia
71.7%
Avg Implied 76.8% · @ 1.21
Edge
-5.1%
18%
28%
54%
covers Spartak Varna + CSKA Sofia
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Draw or CSKA Sofia
82.2%
Avg Implied 82.8% · @ 1.12
Edge
-0.6%
18%
28%
54%
covers Draw + CSKA Sofia
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.17
William Hil
1.15
BetVictor
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Spartak Varna over/under 0.5
Over
53.8%
@ 1.62-3.5%
Under
46.2%
@ 2.16+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.68
Unibet
1.64
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Under
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.20
BetVictor
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.16
Spartak Varna over/under 1.5
Over
18.1%
@ 4.04-4.9%
Under
81.9%
@ 1.21+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.30
Pinnacle
4.10
BetVictor
4.10
Marathonbet
4.05
Under
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Spartak Varna over/under 2.5
Over
4.3%
@ 11.00-4.3%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.04+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
1xBet
11.00
Marathonbet
11.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Spartak Varna over/under 3.5
Over
0.8%
@ 41.00-99.2%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia over/under 0.5
Over
78.1%
@ 1.12-4.4%
Under
21.9%
@ 5.28+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
Under
BetVictor
5.50
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.35
Unibet
5.20
Superbet
5.15
CSKA Sofia over/under 1.5
Over
44.9%
@ 1.67-10.6%
Under
55.1%
@ 2.09+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.68
Superbet
1.68
BetVictor
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.15
BetVictor
2.10
Betano
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Unibet
2.10
CSKA Sofia over/under 2.5
Over
19.6%
@ 3.10-10.2%
Under
80.4%
@ 1.32+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Pinnacle
3.15
Superbet
3.10
1xBet
3.04
Under
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
CSKA Sofia over/under 3.5
Over
6.8%
@ 5.93-9.0%
Under
93.2%
@ 1.11+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Betano
5.80
1xBet
4.80
Under
1xBet
1.13
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Spartak Varna, so a minus line means Spartak Varna give that many goals of a start and CSKA Sofia receive them. At -1, Spartak Varna must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Spartak Varna win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Spartak Varna)
Spartak Varna -2
1.2%
@ 34.00-1.5%
Draw -2
4.4%
@ 19.00-0.6%
CSKA Sofia +2
94.4%
@ 1.03+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
34.00
Draw
Bet365
19.00
Away
Bet365
1.03
Handicap -1 (Spartak Varna)
Spartak Varna -1
5.6%
@ 11.15-2.1%
Draw -1
12.2%
@ 5.92-2.5%
CSKA Sofia +1
82.2%
@ 1.11+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Marathonbet
7.30
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Marathonbet
4.33
Away
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Handicap +1 (Spartak Varna)
Spartak Varna +1
46.1%
@ 2.39+8.7%
Draw +1
25.1%
@ 3.40-1.1%
CSKA Sofia -1
28.8%
@ 2.45-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
2.48
Betfair
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Marathonbet
2.31
Draw
Bet365
3.60
Betfair
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
Unibet
3.25
Away
Betfair
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.48
Unibet
2.32
Handicap +2 (Spartak Varna)
Spartak Varna +2
71.2%
@ 1.48+10.6%
Draw +2
17.0%
@ 4.42-3.3%
CSKA Sofia -2
11.8%
@ 4.68-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.43
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.50
Unibet
4.00
Away
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.65
Unibet
4.40
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Spartak Varna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.73
0.53
0.53
0.13
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
1.17
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.42
0.62
0.80
0.30
0.14
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSKA Sofia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.47
0.69
0.56
0.36
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.38
0.54
0.33
0.67
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (17)
0.65
0.41
0.90
0.50
0.29
0.29
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Varna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.3%
@ 1.35-1.3%
Under 0.5
32.7%
@ 2.95+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
BetVictor
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Under
Pinnacle
3.11
Bet365
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
30.6%
@ 2.63-4.6%
Under 1.5
69.4%
@ 1.43+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.75
Betano
2.72
Unibet
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Under
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.45
BetVictor
1.44
William Hil
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.3%
@ 6.35-3.3%
Under 2.5
88.7%
@ 1.09+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.50
Bet365
7.00
William Hil
6.50
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spartak Varna over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.3%
@ 2.84+1.6%
Under
65.7%
@ 1.38-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.05
Unibet
2.90
Superbet
2.80
Betano
2.80
1xBet
2.76
Under
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.36
Spartak Varna over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.8%
@ 10.33-2.2%
Under
93.2%
@ 1.02+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.25
1xBet
11.20
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Spartak Varna over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia over/under 0.5 HT
Over
50.8%
@ 1.65-5.4%
Under
49.2%
@ 2.12+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.64
Superbet
1.64
Unibet
1.61
Under
Pinnacle
2.19
Superbet
2.12
Unibet
2.12
1xBet
2.10
Betano
2.07
CSKA Sofia over/under 1.5 HT
Over
15.3%
@ 4.25-6.5%
Under
84.7%
@ 1.19+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.25
Marathonbet
4.25
Betano
4.15
Under
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
CSKA Sofia over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.9%
@ 9.50-4.8%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.02+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.50
1xBet
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Spartak Varna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.03
0.60
1.20
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
2.33
0.80
2.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.71
0.50
0.80
0.50
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSKA Sofia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.47
1.00
0.38
0.57
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.54
0.50
0.67
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (17)
1.06
0.41
1.30
0.20
0.71
0.71
Clean sheet %
63% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Varna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.9%
@ 1.22+1.8%
Under 0.5
22.1%
@ 3.87-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
Under
Betano
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
1xBet
3.82
Marathonbet
3.82
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
42.8%
@ 2.04-2.8%
Under 1.5
57.2%
@ 1.71+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.10
Superbet
2.05
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
Unibet
2.02
Under
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
Superbet
1.70
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.5%
@ 4.24-5.4%
Under 2.5
83.5%
@ 1.19+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.60
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
1xBet
4.15
Under
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spartak Varna over/under 0.5 2H
Over
39.6%
@ 2.30-0.7%
Under
60.4%
@ 1.55+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.35
Superbet
2.32
1xBet
2.27
Betano
2.25
Under
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.56
Superbet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.51
Spartak Varna over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.2%
@ 7.77-2.7%
Under
90.8%
@ 1.05+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.50
1xBet
8.00
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Spartak Varna over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.8%
@ 12.50-5.7%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
CSKA Sofia over/under 0.5 2H
Over
58.2%
@ 1.45-5.9%
Under
41.8%
@ 2.58+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.46
1xBet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Under
Betano
2.65
1xBet
2.55
Superbet
2.52
CSKA Sofia over/under 1.5 2H
Over
23.6%
@ 3.08-6.4%
Under
76.4%
@ 1.32+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.14
1xBet
3.10
Betano
3.00
Under
Betano
1.36
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.30
CSKA Sofia over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.4%
@ 7.60-6.8%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.05+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.40
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.03
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.6%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.7%
Under 5.5
97.0%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
BetVictor
1.02
+5.6%
Home under 2.5 goals
95.7%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+4.3%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.1%
1.02
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.8%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.6%
1.05
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
+6.8%
Away +2 handicap
94.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+2.2%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
93.2%
1.02
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
+2.2%
Away under 3.5 goals
93.2%
1.11
1xBet
1.13
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
-
-
+9.0%
Under 4.5
91.7%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Betfair
1.13
Pinnacle
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
+7.9%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
90.8%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
-
-
+2.7%
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.7%
1.09
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
+3.3%
Over 2.5 cards
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
84.7%
1.19
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
-
-
+6.5%
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.5%
1.19
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
+5.4%
Draw or Away
82.2%
1.12
Betano
1.17
William Hil
1.15
BetVictor
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-0.6%
Away +1 handicap
82.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
-
-
-
+4.6%
Home under 1.5 goals
81.9%
1.21
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
+4.9%
Away under 2.5 goals
80.4%
1.32
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
+10.2%
Under 3.5
80.1%
1.34
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Superbet
1.34
+10.7%
Away over 0.5 goals
78.1%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
-4.4%
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.9%
1.22
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
+1.8%
Under 11.5 corners
77.6%
1.41
Unibet
1.52
Superbet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.31
-
-
+12.4%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
76.4%
1.32
Betano
1.36
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.30
-
-
+6.4%
Over 19.5 fouls
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.7%
1.21
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-5.1%
Home +2 handicap
71.2%
1.48
Unibet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.43
-
-
+10.6%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Spartak Varna · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jota Lopes40%
Georg Stojanovski29%
Berna25%
Jota Lopes14%
Xandy12%
Ilker Budinov11%
Martin Georgiev10%
Dimo Krastev9%
Daniel Ivanov6%
Tailson0%
Deyan Lozev0%
Jacques Ivanov Pehlivanov0%
Emil Yanchev0%
Alexander Georgiev0%
Tsvetelin Chunchukov0%
Louis Pahama0%
Maksym Kovalyov0%
Tales0%
Angel Granchov0%
Saad Moukachar0%
Pedro Victor0%
Emmanuel John0%
Boris Ivanov0%
Ivan Aleksiev0%
Mateo Jurić-Petrašilo0%
Damyan Yordanov0%
Daniel Todorov Halachev0%
Tsvetoslav Marinov0%
Petar Prindzhev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Deyan Lozev40%
Ilker Budinov33%
Damyan Yordanov33%
Alexander Georgiev27%
Angel Granchov26%
Petar Prindzhev25%
Georg Stojanovski24%
Maksym Kovalyov21%
Jota Lopes20%
Tsvetelin Chunchukov18%
Dimo Krastev18%
Pedro Victor17%
Tsvetoslav Marinov15%
Daniel Todorov Halachev14%
Jota Lopes14%
Daniel Ivanov12%
Ivan Aleksiev11%
Emmanuel John10%
Martin Georgiev10%
Mateo Jurić-Petrašilo9%
Emil Yanchev6%
Tailson0%
Jacques Ivanov Pehlivanov0%
Louis Pahama0%
Tales0%
Xandy0%
Saad Moukachar0%
Berna0%
Boris Ivanov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daniel Todorov Halachev14%
Georg Stojanovski12%
Angel Granchov11%
Tsvetelin Chunchukov9%
Boris Ivanov9%
Berna8%
Emil Yanchev6%
Daniel Ivanov6%
Xandy4%
Tailson0%
Deyan Lozev0%
Jacques Ivanov Pehlivanov0%
Alexander Georgiev0%
Dimo Krastev0%
Ilker Budinov0%
Louis Pahama0%
Maksym Kovalyov0%
Tales0%
Saad Moukachar0%
Pedro Victor0%
Emmanuel John0%
Martin Georgiev0%
Ivan Aleksiev0%
Mateo Jurić-Petrašilo0%
Damyan Yordanov0%
Tsvetoslav Marinov0%
Jota Lopes0%
Petar Prindzhev0%
Jota Lopes0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Georg Stojanovski29%
Xandy12%
Tailson0%
Deyan Lozev0%
Jacques Ivanov Pehlivanov0%
Emil Yanchev0%
Alexander Georgiev0%
Tsvetelin Chunchukov0%
Dimo Krastev0%
Ilker Budinov0%
Louis Pahama0%
Maksym Kovalyov0%
Tales0%
Angel Granchov0%
Saad Moukachar0%
Daniel Ivanov0%
Pedro Victor0%
Berna0%
Emmanuel John0%
Boris Ivanov0%
Martin Georgiev0%
Ivan Aleksiev0%
Mateo Jurić-Petrašilo0%
Damyan Yordanov0%
Daniel Todorov Halachev0%
Tsvetoslav Marinov0%
Jota Lopes0%
Petar Prindzhev0%
Jota Lopes0%
CSKA Sofia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Leandro Godoy35%
Alejandro Piedrahita20%
Max Ebong18%
Ioannis Pittas18%
Léo Pereira18%
James Eto'o14%
Olaus Jair Skarsem11%
Bruno Jordão7%
Mohamed Brahimi7%
Adrián Lapeña7%
Petko Panayotov6%
Lumbardh Dellova5%
Ángelo Martino0%
Facundo Rodríguez0%
Ivan Turitsov0%
Andrey Yordanov0%
Thibaut Vion0%
Ivan Tasev0%
Gustavo Busatto0%
Ilian Iliev0%
David Seger0%
Isaac Solet0%
Pastor0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Georgi Brankov Chorbadzhiyski0%
Sainey Sanyang0%
Teodor Ivanov0%
Kevin Dodaj0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Bruno Jordão36%
Ángelo Martino35%
Adrián Lapeña29%
Léo Pereira27%
David Seger25%
Georgi Brankov Chorbadzhiyski25%
James Eto'o24%
Olaus Jair Skarsem22%
Mohamed Brahimi21%
Lumbardh Dellova21%
Max Ebong18%
Leandro Godoy18%
Facundo Rodríguez17%
Alejandro Piedrahita10%
Ivan Turitsov8%
Ilian Iliev7%
Petko Panayotov6%
Fedor Lapoukhov6%
Ioannis Pittas5%
Andrey Yordanov0%
Thibaut Vion0%
Ivan Tasev0%
Gustavo Busatto0%
Isaac Solet0%
Pastor0%
Sainey Sanyang0%
Teodor Ivanov0%
Kevin Dodaj0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
James Eto'o33%
Ivan Tasev25%
Pastor11%
Isaac Solet10%
Léo Pereira9%
Ivan Turitsov8%
Mohamed Brahimi7%
Leandro Godoy6%
Petko Panayotov6%
Bruno Jordão0%
Ángelo Martino0%
Facundo Rodríguez0%
Max Ebong0%
Andrey Yordanov0%
Lumbardh Dellova0%
Ioannis Pittas0%
Thibaut Vion0%
Olaus Jair Skarsem0%
Gustavo Busatto0%
Ilian Iliev0%
Adrián Lapeña0%
David Seger0%
Alejandro Piedrahita0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Georgi Brankov Chorbadzhiyski0%
Sainey Sanyang0%
Teodor Ivanov0%
Kevin Dodaj0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ioannis Pittas41%
Leandro Godoy35%
Ivan Tasev25%
James Eto'o19%
Petko Panayotov12%
Isaac Solet10%
Léo Pereira9%
Bruno Jordão7%
Mohamed Brahimi7%
Lumbardh Dellova5%
Ángelo Martino0%
Facundo Rodríguez0%
Max Ebong0%
Ivan Turitsov0%
Andrey Yordanov0%
Thibaut Vion0%
Olaus Jair Skarsem0%
Gustavo Busatto0%
Ilian Iliev0%
Adrián Lapeña0%
David Seger0%
Pastor0%
Alejandro Piedrahita0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Georgi Brankov Chorbadzhiyski0%
Sainey Sanyang0%
Teodor Ivanov0%
Kevin Dodaj0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (29)
€46m
LS (27)
€38m
CS (25)
€26m
C1 (30)
€18m
BP (29)
€11m
AK (20)
€10m
LP (23)
€9m
LS (25)
€8m
SS (25)
€7m
CMV (22)
€6m
SV (22)
€6m
BV (23)
€6m
DR (22)
€4m
SS (20)
€3m
Spartak Varna's squad is €20m less valuable than CSKA Sofia's (€6m vs €26m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (12)
€27m
LS (10)
€11m
CS (9)
€10m
C1 (14)
€9m
BP (12)
€5m
AK (7)
€3m
LS (11)
€3m
CMV (8)
€3m
LP (8)
€3m
SS (11)
€2m
BV (8)
€2m
SV (7)
€2m
DR (6)
€1m
SS (8)
€1m
Spartak Varna's attack is €8m less valuable than CSKA Sofia's (€2m vs €10m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (5)
€8m
CS (6)
€6m
LUD (4)
€6m
AK (3)
€3m
LS (6)
€2m
C1 (4)
€2m
BP (6)
€2m
LP (5)
€2m
SS (4)
€2m
BV (5)
€1m
CMV (5)
€1m
DR (5)
€1m
SV (4)
€1m
SS (4)
€1m
Spartak Varna's midfield is €5m less valuable than CSKA Sofia's (€1m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (12)
€19m
LUD (13)
€13m
CS (10)
€10m
C1 (12)
€7m
BP (11)
€4m
LP (10)
€4m
AK (10)
€3m
SS (10)
€3m
LS (8)
€3m
SV (11)
€3m
CMV (9)
€2m
BV (10)
€2m
DR (11)
€2m
SS (8)
€2m
Spartak Varna's defence is €7m less valuable than CSKA Sofia's (€3m vs €10m).
Bulgaria: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Levski Sofia
Ludogorets
Arda Kardzhali
CSKA 1948
Septemvri Sofia
Slavia Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
Dunav Ruse
Cherno More Varna
Botev Vratsa
Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv