Spartak Varna’s recent 0-6 loss to Levski Sofia and a streak of three defeats have dampened their home form, with an average of 0.75 goals scored and 3.5 conceded against stronger opposition. Ludogorets, meanwhile, have gone unbeaten in five games, averaging 2.33 goals scored and only 0.89 conceded when playing away against weaker teams. The model therefore names an away win as the clear favourite, assigning a 66 % probability to Ludogorets triumphing. The overall chance of a draw sits at 21 %, while Spartak’s home win probability is 13 %. The expected total is 2.9 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals occurring 24 % of the time. The single most probable scoreline is 0-2, with a 12 % chance. Suggested picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.2 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 99.0 %, Under 7.5 at 99.0 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.0 %, Under 6.5 at 97.1 % with a 1 % edge, Away +2 handicap at 96.0 %, Home under 2.5 goals at 95.1 % with a 4 % edge, and Away under 2.5 HT goals at 93.6 %.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Ludogorets, did not come through, as the match ended in a 1-1 draw. Spartak Varna, coming off a draw, and Ludogorets, unbeaten in their last five, both found the net once. The model had picked an away win with a 65% probability, but that call was wrong. The suggested selections performed impressively: Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.2%, Under 7.5 at 99.0%, Home under 3.5 goals at 99.0%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.9%, Under 6.5 at 97.2%, Away +2 handicap at 95.9%, Home under 2.5 goals at 94.9%, and Home under 1.5 HT goals at 93.9%. All eight selections were settled, each hitting its target.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Spartak Varna win✗ Miss
12.9%
Avg Implied 16.5% · @ 5.60
Edge
-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
6.10
Unibet
6.00
BetVictor
6.00
1xBet
5.99
Pinnacle
5.67
Draw✓ Hit
21.7%
Avg Implied 23.1% · @ 4.00
Edge
-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.23
Dafabet
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
Bet365
4.10
Superbet
4.10
Ludogorets win✗ Miss
65.3%
Avg Implied 60.5% · @ 1.53
Edge
+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Bet365
1.55
Unibet
1.54
Superbet
1.54
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Spartak Varna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.80
1.27
1.80
0.60
1.80
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
4.00
0.75
3.50
0.00
6.00
vs Similar (25)
1.00
1.36
1.45
1.18
0.64
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ludogorets
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
0.73
1.41
0.59
1.69
0.92
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.60
1.50
0.33
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
1.80
0.80
1.36
0.73
2.33
0.89
Clean sheet %
43% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Varna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.4%
@ 1.24+4.6%
Under 1.5
20.6%
@ 3.68-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.83
BetVictor
3.80
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.2%
@ 1.80+3.2%
Under 2.5
44.8%
@ 1.95-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
2.00
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.96
Marathonbet
1.96
Superbet
1.95
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.9%
@ 2.99+1.8%
Under 3.5
67.1%
@ 1.35-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.10
Betfair
3.10
Pinnacle
3.02
10Bet
3.00
Under
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Betfair
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.9%
@ 1.84-0.0%
No
50.1%
@ 1.84+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.87
Marathonbet
1.85
William Hil
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
No
Betfair
1.87
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
11.9%@ 6.68+5.4%
0-1
10.5%@ 6.22+3.5%
1-1 ✓
10.4%@ 7.00+4.2%
1-2
9.8%@ 7.20+3.7%
0-3
8.2%@ 10.16+3.9%
1-3
6.7%@ 11.13+2.8%
0-0
6.5%@ 10.51+2.4%
0-4
4.2%@ 19.26+2.0%
Spartak Varna goals ↓
Ludogorets goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
11%
12%
8.2%
4.2%
1
3.6%
10%
9.8%
6.7%
3.5%
2
1.9%
3.9%
4.0%
2.8%
1.4%
3
0.5%
1.1%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spartak Varna goals (down), columns = Ludogorets goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Levski Sofia
3.00
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.50
Ludogorets
2.43
Arda Kardzhali
2.29
Spartak Varna
1.17
Septemvri Sofia
1.14
Botev Plovdiv
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Dunav Ruse
0.57
Cherno More Varna
0.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
0.50
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Spartak Varna is 1.26 points worse than Ludogorets in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 2.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levski Sofia
2.86
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.17
Ludogorets
1.71
Arda Kardzhali
1.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.17
Spartak Varna
1.17
Botev Plovdiv
1.14
Cherno More Varna
1.14
Dunav Ruse
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Septemvri Sofia
0.71
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Spartak Varna is 0.55 goals worse than Ludogorets in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arda Kardzhali
0.57
Levski Sofia
0.57
CSKA Sofia
0.67
Ludogorets
0.71
CSKA 1948
0.83
Slavia Sofia
0.86
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.43
Septemvri Sofia
1.43
Botev Plovdiv
1.71
Spartak Varna
1.83
Lokomotiv Sofia
2.00
Dunav Ruse
2.00
Botev Vratsa
2.14
Cherno More Varna
2.29
Spartak Varna is 1.12 goals worse than Ludogorets in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 0.71).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Levski Sofia
63%
Slavia Sofia
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Spartak Varna
For 3.4 · Against 6.4 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 12.8 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ludogorets
For 6.8 · Against 2.5 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 11.9 · Total 22.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Spartak Varna
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.1
10.1
3.0
3.3
2.6
21.8
22.6
20.8
vs Stronger (12)
11.1
10.8
11.3
4.1
5.0
3.4
20.7
23.4
18.5
vs Similar (38)
9.5
9.7
9.2
2.6
2.9
2.3
22.4
22.3
22.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
56%
57%
42%
48%
36%
50%
56%
43%
% under line
43%
44%
43%
58%
52%
64%
50%
44%
57%
This opponent (Ludogorets) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ludogorets
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
10.4
8.8
3.2
3.2
3.2
23.0
23.3
22.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
8.3
8.6
8.0
4.3
4.4
4.2
25.0
26.0
23.8
vs Weaker (32)
10.6
11.8
9.4
2.5
2.6
2.5
21.5
21.2
21.8
% over line
43%
56%
29%
44%
44%
43%
63%
62%
64%
% under line
57%
44%
71%
56%
56%
57%
37%
38%
36%
This opponent (Spartak Varna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Slavia Sofia
10.6
Botev Plovdiv
10.1
Spartak Varna
10.1
CSKA Sofia
9.7
Levski Sofia
9.6
Botev Vratsa
9.5
Ludogorets
9.4
CSKA 1948
9.4
Lokomotiv Sofia
9.3
Septemvri Sofia
9.1
Cherno More Varna
9.0
Arda Kardzhali
8.8
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arda Kardzhali
5.2
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
5.0
Septemvri Sofia
5.0
Botev Vratsa
4.9
Cherno More Varna
4.9
Spartak Varna
4.9
Ludogorets
4.8
Slavia Sofia
4.7
CSKA Sofia
4.7
Levski Sofia
4.6
Botev Plovdiv
4.5
CSKA 1948
4.2
Lokomotiv Sofia
4.1
Dunav Ruse
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cherno More Varna
25.3
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
25.0
Levski Sofia
24.6
Botev Vratsa
24.6
Arda Kardzhali
24.2
Slavia Sofia
23.8
Lokomotiv Sofia
23.8
Spartak Varna
22.9
Septemvri Sofia
22.8
CSKA 1948
22.7
CSKA Sofia
22.5
Ludogorets
22.4
Botev Plovdiv
22.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
47.8%
@ 1.84-2.5%
Under 9.5
52.2%
@ 1.87+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Under
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Unibet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
73.6%
Under 3.5
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
57.3%
Under 21.5
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Spartak Varna or Draw✓ Hit
34.7%
Avg Implied 39.0% · @ 2.38
Edge
-4.3%
13%
22%
65%
covers Spartak Varna + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.45
Marathonbet
2.41
1xBet
2.41
Betfair
2.40
Spartak Varna or Ludogorets✗ Miss
78.3%
Avg Implied 77.6% · @ 1.20
Edge
+0.7%
13%
22%
65%
covers Spartak Varna + Ludogorets
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Draw or Ludogorets✓ Hit
87.1%
Avg Implied 83.4% · @ 1.11
Edge
+3.7%
13%
22%
65%
covers Draw + Ludogorets
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
William Hil
1.12
Superbet
1.12
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Spartak Varna over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
56.1%
@ 1.62-1.1%
Under
43.9%
@ 2.16+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.68
Marathonbet
1.63
Bet365
1.62
BetVictor
1.62
Betano
1.62
Under
Betano
2.22
Betfair
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.19
Spartak Varna over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
19.9%
@ 3.98-3.3%
Under
80.1%
@ 1.20+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.40
BetVictor
4.10
Pinnacle
4.06
Unibet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Under
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Spartak Varna over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.1%
@ 10.50-3.9%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.03+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
10.00
Superbet
10.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Spartak Varna over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.0%
@ 41.00-99.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
87.4%
@ 1.11+4.3%
Under
12.6%
@ 5.47-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Under
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
BetVictor
5.75
1xBet
5.40
Superbet
5.35
Ludogorets over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
61.2%
@ 1.63+4.5%
Under
38.8%
@ 2.14-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
10Bet
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Under
Pinnacle
2.23
Bet365
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Marathonbet
2.17
BetVictor
2.15
Ludogorets over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
34.2%
@ 2.99+3.3%
Under
65.8%
@ 1.34-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.10
Pinnacle
3.09
Bet365
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Under
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
Ludogorets over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
15.6%
@ 6.25+0.6%
Under
84.4%
@ 1.10-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.80
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
1xBet
1.06
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Spartak Varna, so a minus line means Spartak Varna give that many goals of a start and Ludogorets receive them. At -1, Spartak Varna must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Spartak Varna win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Spartak Varna)Actual: Ludogorets
Spartak Varna -2
0.9%
@ 34.00-1.8%
Draw -2
3.2%
@ 17.00-2.4%
Ludogorets +2
95.9%
@ 1.03+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
34.00
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Away
Bet365
1.03
Handicap -1 (Spartak Varna)Actual: Ludogorets
Spartak Varna -1
4.1%
@ 10.80-3.9%
Draw -1
8.8%
@ 6.23-5.2%
Ludogorets +1
87.1%
@ 1.12+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
12.00
Marathonbet
7.40
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
4.45
Away
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Handicap +1 (Spartak Varna)Actual: Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna +1
34.7%
@ 2.38-2.9%
Draw +1
23.5%
@ 3.46-2.4%
Ludogorets -1
41.8%
@ 2.45+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.41
Betfair
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Unibet
2.38
10Bet
2.35
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.48
Betfair
3.40
10Bet
3.40
Unibet
3.25
Away
10Bet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.46
Betfair
2.40
Unibet
2.38
Handicap +2 (Spartak Varna)Actual: Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna +2
58.2%
@ 1.48-2.2%
Draw +2
20.2%
@ 4.44+0.1%
Ludogorets -2
21.6%
@ 4.59+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
Unibet
1.48
Betfair
1.44
Draw
Marathonbet
4.65
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.10
Away
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.60
Unibet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Spartak Varna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.77
0.60
0.60
0.13
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.40
0.00
1.25
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.64
0.82
0.36
0.14
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ludogorets
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.71
0.29
0.54
0.54
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.50
0.67
0.17
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.75
0.35
0.73
0.36
0.78
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Varna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
72.0%
@ 1.34+2.3%
Under 0.5
28.0%
@ 3.06-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
BetVictor
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Under
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.20
Betfair
3.20
William Hil
3.10
10Bet
3.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.7%
@ 2.57-2.3%
Under 1.5
66.3%
@ 1.45+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.73
Betano
2.70
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
1xBet
2.59
Under
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
BetVictor
1.46
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.5%
@ 6.25-1.3%
Under 2.5
86.5%
@ 1.09+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.40
1xBet
6.40
Betfair
6.00
Under
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spartak Varna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
32.5%
@ 2.85+0.0%
Under
67.5%
@ 1.38-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.07
Marathonbet
2.88
Betano
2.85
1xBet
2.80
Superbet
2.77
Under
Superbet
1.39
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.38
Unibet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.37
Spartak Varna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.1%
@ 9.25-4.0%
Under
93.9%
@ 1.04+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Spartak Varna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
61.4%
@ 1.64+4.7%
Under
38.6%
@ 2.15-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.63
Unibet
1.61
Superbet
1.61
Under
Pinnacle
2.25
Superbet
2.17
1xBet
2.13
Unibet
2.12
Betano
2.07
Ludogorets over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
23.2%
@ 4.15+0.9%
Under
76.8%
@ 1.19-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.25
1xBet
4.10
Betano
4.10
Under
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Ludogorets over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.0%
@ 9.25-3.1%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.04+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Spartak Varna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.03
0.67
1.20
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
2.60
0.75
2.25
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.72
0.64
0.82
0.50
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ludogorets
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.33
0.71
0.29
1.15
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.10
0.83
0.17
0.25
0.00
vs Weaker (20)
1.05
0.45
0.64
0.36
1.56
0.56
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Varna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.4%
@ 1.20+3.2%
Under 0.5
19.6%
@ 4.05-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Under
Bet365
4.33
Betano
4.15
1xBet
4.05
Marathonbet
4.05
Superbet
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
48.6%
@ 2.02+2.6%
Under 1.5
51.4%
@ 1.72-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.10
William Hil
2.05
Marathonbet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Unibet
2.00
Under
Betano
1.80
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Superbet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
20.8%
@ 4.15-1.5%
Under 2.5
79.2%
@ 1.19+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.40
Marathonbet
4.25
1xBet
4.25
Superbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Under
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.20
William Hil
1.18
1xBet
1.16
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spartak Varna over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
37.6%
@ 2.34-2.1%
Under
62.4%
@ 1.54+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.40
1xBet
2.36
Superbet
2.32
Betano
2.27
Under
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.54
1xBet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.49
Spartak Varna over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.0%
@ 8.43-2.0%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.04+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.80
1xBet
8.60
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
Spartak Varna over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 12.50-5.4%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Ludogorets over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
67.1%
@ 1.44+2.7%
Under
32.9%
@ 2.61-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.45
Superbet
1.44
Betano
1.44
Under
Betano
2.67
Superbet
2.60
1xBet
2.55
Ludogorets over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
31.0%
@ 3.02+0.3%
Under
69.0%
@ 1.34-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.04
Betano
2.92
Under
Betano
1.37
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Ludogorets over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.3%
@ 7.40-3.2%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.06+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.20
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.03
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
95.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
94.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
93.9%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
93.0%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.7%
1.04
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
BetVictor
1.02
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
91.0%
1.04
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
90.7%
1.06
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
87.4%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
87.1%
1.11
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
William Hil
1.12
Superbet
1.12
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
87.1%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
+9.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.5%
1.09
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
84.4%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
1xBet
1.06
-
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
83.3%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Pinnacle
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.4%
1.20
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.18
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
80.1%
1.20
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.4%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.2%
1.19
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.20
William Hil
1.18
1xBet
1.16
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
78.3%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
+0.7%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
76.8%
1.19
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
-
-
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.2%
1.31
Unibet
1.36
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
+5.1%
-
Under 25.5 fouls
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.0%
1.34
Betano
1.40
BetVictor
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
+2.3%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Spartak Varna · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jota Lopes40%
Georg Stojanovski29%
Berna25%
Jota Lopes14%
Xandy12%
Ilker Budinov11%
Martin Georgiev10%
Dimo Krastev9%
Daniel Ivanov6%
Tailson0%
Deyan Lozev0%
Jacques Ivanov Pehlivanov0%
Emil Yanchev0%
Alexander Georgiev0%
Tsvetelin Chunchukov0%
Louis Pahama0%
Maksym Kovalyov0%
Tales0%
Angel Granchov0%
Saad Moukachar0%
Pedro Victor0%
Emmanuel John0%
Boris Ivanov0%
Ivan Aleksiev0%
Mateo Jurić-Petrašilo0%
Damyan Yordanov0%
Daniel Todorov Halachev0%
Tsvetoslav Marinov0%
Petar Prindzhev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Deyan Lozev40%
Ilker Budinov33%
Damyan Yordanov33%
Alexander Georgiev27%
Angel Granchov26%
Petar Prindzhev25%
Georg Stojanovski24%
Maksym Kovalyov21%
Jota Lopes20%
Tsvetelin Chunchukov18%
Dimo Krastev18%
Pedro Victor17%
Tsvetoslav Marinov15%
Daniel Todorov Halachev14%
Jota Lopes14%
Daniel Ivanov12%
Ivan Aleksiev11%
Emmanuel John10%
Martin Georgiev10%
Mateo Jurić-Petrašilo9%
Emil Yanchev6%
Tailson0%
Jacques Ivanov Pehlivanov0%
Louis Pahama0%
Tales0%
Xandy0%
Saad Moukachar0%
Berna0%
Boris Ivanov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daniel Todorov Halachev14%
Georg Stojanovski12%
Angel Granchov11%
Tsvetelin Chunchukov9%
Boris Ivanov9%
Berna8%
Emil Yanchev6%
Daniel Ivanov6%
Xandy4%
Tailson0%
Deyan Lozev0%
Jacques Ivanov Pehlivanov0%
Alexander Georgiev0%
Dimo Krastev0%
Ilker Budinov0%
Louis Pahama0%
Maksym Kovalyov0%
Tales0%
Saad Moukachar0%
Pedro Victor0%
Emmanuel John0%
Martin Georgiev0%
Ivan Aleksiev0%
Mateo Jurić-Petrašilo0%
Damyan Yordanov0%
Tsvetoslav Marinov0%
Jota Lopes0%
Petar Prindzhev0%
Jota Lopes0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Georg Stojanovski29%
Xandy12%
Tailson0%
Deyan Lozev0%
Jacques Ivanov Pehlivanov0%
Emil Yanchev0%
Alexander Georgiev0%
Tsvetelin Chunchukov0%
Dimo Krastev0%
Ilker Budinov0%
Louis Pahama0%
Maksym Kovalyov0%
Tales0%
Angel Granchov0%
Saad Moukachar0%
Daniel Ivanov0%
Pedro Victor0%
Berna0%
Emmanuel John0%
Boris Ivanov0%
Martin Georgiev0%
Ivan Aleksiev0%
Mateo Jurić-Petrašilo0%
Damyan Yordanov0%
Daniel Todorov Halachev0%
Tsvetoslav Marinov0%
Jota Lopes0%
Petar Prindzhev0%
Jota Lopes0%
Ludogorets · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kwadwo Duah47%
Petar Stanić36%
Ivajlo Chochev34%
Emerson Rodríguez20%
Yves Erick Bile20%
Rwan Cruz18%
Erick Marcus13%
Ivan Yordanov11%
Olivier Verdon11%
Son10%
Idan Nachmias8%
Stanislav Ivanov7%
Joel Andersson5%
Bernard Tekpetey4%
Caio Vidal4%
Dinis Almeida4%
Deroy Duarte3%
Anton Nedyalkov0%
Pedro Naressi0%
Mounir Chouiar0%
Hendrik Bonmann0%
Sergio Padt0%
Edvin Kurtulus0%
Filip Kaloč0%
Filip Gigov0%
Simeon Shishkov0%
Vinicius Nogueira0%
Matheus Machado Ferreira0%
Alberto Salido0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Edvin Kurtulus30%
Dinis Almeida27%
Pedro Naressi24%
Anton Nedyalkov23%
Idan Nachmias23%
Simeon Shishkov20%
Filip Kaloč19%
Vinicius Nogueira18%
Mounir Chouiar17%
Olivier Verdon14%
Erick Marcus13%
Bernard Tekpetey12%
Caio Vidal12%
Yves Erick Bile10%
Deroy Duarte9%
Rwan Cruz9%
Hendrik Bonmann8%
Son7%
Stanislav Ivanov7%
Petar Stanić6%
Kwadwo Duah6%
Ivajlo Chochev6%
Joel Andersson5%
Sergio Padt0%
Ivan Yordanov0%
Emerson Rodríguez0%
Filip Gigov0%
Matheus Machado Ferreira0%
Alberto Salido0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Petar Stanić21%
Emerson Rodríguez20%
Mounir Chouiar17%
Bernard Tekpetey17%
Erick Marcus13%
Caio Vidal12%
Vinicius Nogueira9%
Dinis Almeida8%
Pedro Naressi7%
Son7%
Anton Nedyalkov7%
Stanislav Ivanov7%
Kwadwo Duah6%
Ivajlo Chochev6%
Joel Andersson5%
Olivier Verdon4%
Deroy Duarte3%
Hendrik Bonmann0%
Sergio Padt0%
Edvin Kurtulus0%
Filip Kaloč0%
Ivan Yordanov0%
Idan Nachmias0%
Rwan Cruz0%
Filip Gigov0%
Simeon Shishkov0%
Matheus Machado Ferreira0%
Yves Erick Bile0%
Alberto Salido0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Caio Vidal36%
Kwadwo Duah35%
Petar Stanić24%
Ivajlo Chochev23%
Rwan Cruz18%
Bernard Tekpetey12%
Yves Erick Bile10%
Erick Marcus10%
Son3%
Anton Nedyalkov0%
Olivier Verdon0%
Pedro Naressi0%
Stanislav Ivanov0%
Joel Andersson0%
Mounir Chouiar0%
Hendrik Bonmann0%
Dinis Almeida0%
Deroy Duarte0%
Sergio Padt0%
Edvin Kurtulus0%
Filip Kaloč0%
Ivan Yordanov0%
Idan Nachmias0%
Emerson Rodríguez0%
Filip Gigov0%
Simeon Shishkov0%
Vinicius Nogueira0%
Matheus Machado Ferreira0%
Alberto Salido0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (29)
€46m
LS (27)
€38m
CS (25)
€26m
C1 (30)
€18m
BP (29)
€11m
AK (20)
€10m
LP (23)
€9m
LS (25)
€8m
SS (25)
€7m
CMV (22)
€6m
SV (22)
€6m
BV (23)
€6m
DR (22)
€4m
SS (20)
€3m
Spartak Varna's squad is €40m less valuable than Ludogorets's (€6m vs €46m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (12)
€27m
LS (10)
€11m
CS (9)
€10m
C1 (14)
€9m
BP (12)
€5m
AK (7)
€3m
LS (11)
€3m
CMV (8)
€3m
LP (8)
€3m
SS (11)
€2m
BV (8)
€2m
SV (7)
€2m
DR (6)
€1m
SS (8)
€1m
Spartak Varna's attack is €25m less valuable than Ludogorets's (€2m vs €27m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (5)
€8m
CS (6)
€6m
LUD (4)
€6m
AK (3)
€3m
LS (6)
€2m
C1 (4)
€2m
BP (6)
€2m
LP (5)
€2m
SS (4)
€2m
BV (5)
€1m
CMV (5)
€1m
DR (5)
€1m
SV (4)
€1m
SS (4)
€1m
Spartak Varna's midfield is €5m less valuable than Ludogorets's (€1m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (12)
€19m
LUD (13)
€13m
CS (10)
€10m
C1 (12)
€7m
BP (11)
€4m
LP (10)
€4m
AK (10)
€3m
SS (10)
€3m
LS (8)
€3m
SV (11)
€3m
CMV (9)
€2m
BV (10)
€2m
DR (11)
€2m
SS (8)
€2m
Spartak Varna's defence is €10m less valuable than Ludogorets's (€3m vs €13m).
Bulgaria: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: First League stats & trends →
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Levski Sofia
CSKA Sofia
Arda Kardzhali
CSKA 1948
Septemvri Sofia
Slavia Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
Dunav Ruse
Cherno More Varna
Botev Vratsa
Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv