Spartak Varna is coming off a defeat to Botev Plovdiv, but the team has shown resilience in its previous matches. Septemvri Sofia, on the other hand, is struggling with three straight defeats. The model predicts a home win for Spartak Varna, with a 53% probability, making it the favourite to win this match. The probability of a draw is 26%, while the away team's chances stand at 21%.
The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely score being 2 goals, and the most likely scoreline being 1-1 with a 12.2% probability. Spartak Varna has an average of 1.6 goals scored at home and 1.2 conceded, while Septemvri Sofia averages 1.14 goals scored away and 1.14 conceded against similar opponents.
The model's selection is Over 1.5 goals with a 78.2% probability, offering a 9% edge. Another selection is Over 3.5 cards with a 70.8% probability. The home team has a 53% chance of winning, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 21% chance of an away win.
Results analysis
After a string of three defeats, Spartak Varna’s home form was still shaky, yet the model favoured a home win at 53 %. The match ended 0-1 to Septemvri Sofia, so the model’s call was wrong. The upset was compounded by the model’s strong selections: Away under 3.5 goals (97.8 %) hit, Home +2 handicap (91.8 %) hit, Away under 2.5 goals (91.0 %) hit, Home under 3.5 goals (89.7 %) hit, Over 2.5 cards (83.8 %) hit. However, Home over 0.5 goals (82.9 %) missed, Home or Draw (78.7 %) missed, and Home +1 handicap (78.7 %) missed. The final score confirmed the unexpected away triumph.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Spartak Varna win✗ Miss
53.1%
Avg Implied 45.0% · @ 2.05
Edge
+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.12
BetVictor
2.10
Pinnacle
2.07
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.06
Draw✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied 29.1% · @ 3.17
Edge
-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.40
BetVictor
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Septemvri Sofia win✓ Hit
21.3%
Avg Implied 26.0% · @ 3.55
Edge
-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.92
Unibet
3.70
1xBet
3.68
Marathonbet
3.66
BetVictor
3.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Spartak Varna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.67
1.27
1.87
0.80
1.47
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
3.50
0.75
3.50
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.08
1.38
1.45
1.27
0.80
1.47
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Septemvri Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Septemvri Sofia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.70
0.75
1.50
0.79
1.93
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
3.14
0.80
2.40
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (23)
0.83
1.26
0.73
1.09
0.92
1.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Varna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
78.3%
@ 1.35+9.6%
Under 1.5
21.7%
@ 2.96-9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.38
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Under
Unibet
3.10
Betfair
3.10
Pinnacle
3.03
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.4%
@ 2.11+9.2%
Under 2.5
46.6%
@ 1.67-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.20
SBO
2.16
Marathonbet
2.15
Bet365
2.15
1xBet
2.15
Under
Unibet
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
Marathonbet
1.67
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.2%
@ 3.79+6.7%
Under 3.5
68.8%
@ 1.23-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.10
Betfair
4.10
Pinnacle
3.95
888Sport
3.90
Bet365
3.75
Under
Betano
1.26
Unibet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.0%
@ 1.84+5.0%
No
45.0%
@ 1.84-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
BetVictor
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Betfair
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
Betano
1.85
No
Betfair
1.87
Unibet
1.86
888Sport
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Betano
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%@ 5.76+4.6%
2-1
9.8%@ 8.04+4.4%
1-0
9.5%@ 6.05+2.3%
2-0
9.3%@ 8.53+4.2%
0-0
7.1%@ 7.75+1.5%
1-2
5.8%@ 11.30+2.0%
3-1
5.8%@ 15.82+3.0%
3-0
5.5%@ 16.64+2.9%
Spartak Varna goals ↓
Septemvri Sofia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
5.2%
3.3%
1.2%
0.3%
1
9.5%
12%
5.8%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.3%
9.8%
5.1%
1.8%
0.5%
3
5.5%
5.8%
3.0%
1.1%
0.3%
4
2.4%
2.5%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spartak Varna goals (down), columns = Septemvri Sofia goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Levski Sofia
3.00
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.50
Ludogorets
2.43
Arda Kardzhali
2.17
Spartak Varna
1.17
Slavia Sofia
1.17
Septemvri Sofia
1.14
Botev Plovdiv
1.00
Botev Vratsa
0.67
Cherno More Varna
0.57
Dunav Ruse
0.50
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Lokomotiv Sofia
0.40
Spartak Varna is 0.02 points better than Septemvri Sofia in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levski Sofia
3.00
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.17
Ludogorets
1.71
Arda Kardzhali
1.50
Spartak Varna
1.17
Botev Plovdiv
1.14
Cherno More Varna
1.14
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Dunav Ruse
0.83
Septemvri Sofia
0.71
Botev Vratsa
0.67
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Spartak Varna is 0.45 goals better than Septemvri Sofia in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 0.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Levski Sofia
0.50
Arda Kardzhali
0.67
Slavia Sofia
0.67
CSKA Sofia
0.67
Ludogorets
0.71
CSKA 1948
0.83
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.43
Septemvri Sofia
1.43
Botev Plovdiv
1.71
Spartak Varna
1.83
Lokomotiv Sofia
2.00
Dunav Ruse
2.00
Botev Vratsa
2.17
Cherno More Varna
2.29
Spartak Varna is 0.40 goals worse than Septemvri Sofia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Spartak Varna
For 3.4 · Against 6.4 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 12.8 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Septemvri Sofia
For 2.8 · Against 4.2 · Total 7.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 11.3 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Spartak Varna
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.1
10.1
2.8
3.1
2.5
21.8
22.6
20.8
vs Stronger (11)
11.1
10.8
11.3
4.3
5.0
3.7
20.7
23.4
18.5
vs Similar (39)
9.5
9.7
9.2
2.4
2.6
2.2
22.4
22.3
22.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
56%
57%
40%
44%
36%
50%
56%
43%
% under line
43%
44%
43%
60%
56%
64%
50%
44%
57%
This opponent (Septemvri Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Septemvri Sofia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.2
7.5
8.8
2.6
2.6
2.5
22.2
23.1
21.3
vs Stronger (12)
8.9
7.8
10.0
2.8
2.7
2.8
22.4
23.8
21.0
vs Similar (37)
7.9
7.4
8.3
2.6
2.6
2.6
22.1
22.8
21.4
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
31%
31%
31%
36%
36%
36%
58%
62%
54%
% under line
69%
69%
69%
64%
64%
64%
42%
38%
46%
This opponent (Spartak Varna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Slavia Sofia
10.4
Botev Plovdiv
10.2
Spartak Varna
10.1
CSKA Sofia
10.0
Levski Sofia
9.7
Ludogorets
9.5
Botev Vratsa
9.4
Lokomotiv Sofia
9.4
CSKA 1948
9.4
Cherno More Varna
9.0
Septemvri Sofia
8.9
Arda Kardzhali
8.6
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arda Kardzhali
5.1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
5.0
Septemvri Sofia
4.9
Spartak Varna
4.9
Botev Vratsa
4.8
CSKA Sofia
4.8
Cherno More Varna
4.8
Ludogorets
4.7
Levski Sofia
4.7
Slavia Sofia
4.6
Botev Plovdiv
4.5
CSKA 1948
4.2
Lokomotiv Sofia
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cherno More Varna
25.3
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
25.1
Levski Sofia
24.7
Botev Vratsa
24.5
Arda Kardzhali
24.1
Lokomotiv Sofia
23.9
Slavia Sofia
23.8
Spartak Varna
23.0
Septemvri Sofia
22.9
CSKA 1948
22.8
CSKA Sofia
22.5
Ludogorets
22.4
Botev Plovdiv
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
48.2%
@ 1.99+1.5%
Under 9.5
51.8%
@ 1.75-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.04
Bet365
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
10Bet
2.00
Under
Unibet
1.86
Bet365
1.78
Pinnacle
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
67.5%
Under 3.5
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
54.8%
Under 21.5
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Spartak Varna or Draw✗ Miss
78.7%
Avg Implied 74.1% · @ 1.25
Edge
+4.6%
53%
26%
21%
covers Spartak Varna + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
1xBet
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Spartak Varna or Septemvri Sofia✓ Hit
74.4%
Avg Implied 71.6% · @ 1.30
Edge
+2.8%
53%
26%
21%
covers Spartak Varna + Septemvri Sofia
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.35
888Sport
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Draw or Septemvri Sofia✓ Hit
46.9%
Avg Implied 54.3% · @ 1.71
Edge
-7.4%
53%
26%
21%
covers Draw + Septemvri Sofia
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.78
Betano
1.75
Unibet
1.73
888Sport
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Spartak Varna over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
82.9%
@ 1.23+8.0%
Under
17.1%
@ 3.69-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
888Sport
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Under
Pinnacle
3.88
Unibet
3.85
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
888Sport
3.70
Spartak Varna over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
52.7%
@ 2.20+10.6%
Under
47.3%
@ 1.60-10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.28
Betfair
2.25
Bet365
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
Marathonbet
2.23
Under
Unibet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
1xBet
1.61
Spartak Varna over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
26.0%
@ 4.88+7.1%
Under
74.0%
@ 1.14-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
888Sport
5.00
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
1xBet
4.85
Under
Betano
1.17
888Sport
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Spartak Varna over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.3%
@ 11.28+2.0%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.03-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
888Sport
13.00
Betfair
10.00
1xBet
9.40
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Septemvri Sofia over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
65.0%
@ 1.46+1.6%
Under
35.0%
@ 2.52-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.51
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.47
Under
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Pinnacle
2.56
10Bet
2.55
Betano
2.55
Septemvri Sofia over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
28.3%
@ 3.29+0.1%
Under
71.7%
@ 1.29-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.61
1xBet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
Under
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Septemvri Sofia over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.0%
@ 9.00-1.4%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.04+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
888Sport
9.50
Marathonbet
9.20
1xBet
9.20
Betfair
8.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
888Sport
1.05
1xBet
1.01
Septemvri Sofia over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 19.25-2.8%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.01+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Spartak Varna, so a minus line means Spartak Varna give that many goals of a start and Septemvri Sofia receive them. At -1, Spartak Varna must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Spartak Varna win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Spartak Varna)Actual: Septemvri Sofia
Spartak Varna -2
13.6%
@ 8.68+3.3%
Draw -2
16.6%
@ 5.91+1.5%
Septemvri Sofia +2
69.7%
@ 1.20-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
9.50
Betfair
9.50
Marathonbet
8.20
Unibet
7.50
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.05
Betfair
6.00
Unibet
5.10
Away
Unibet
1.24
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Betfair
1.17
Handicap -1 (Spartak Varna)Actual: Septemvri Sofia
Spartak Varna -1
30.3%
@ 3.80+6.8%
Draw -1
22.8%
@ 3.60-2.0%
Septemvri Sofia +1
46.9%
@ 1.73-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.82
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.45
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Unibet
3.45
Away
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Betfair
1.67
Handicap +1 (Spartak Varna)Actual: Draw
Spartak Varna +1
78.7%
@ 1.26+7.7%
Draw +1
13.1%
@ 5.03-4.6%
Septemvri Sofia -1
8.2%
@ 7.90-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Draw
Marathonbet
5.20
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.90
Away
Marathonbet
8.20
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Handicap +2 (Spartak Varna)Actual: Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna +2
91.8%
@ 1.07+4.7%
Draw +2
5.9%
@ 11.00-2.6%
Septemvri Sofia -2
2.3%
@ 21.00-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.07
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Away
Bet365
21.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Spartak Varna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.60
0.73
0.27
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.25
0.00
1.25
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.50
0.69
0.82
0.55
0.27
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Septemvri Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Septemvri Sofia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.63
0.19
0.56
0.29
0.71
vs Stronger (7)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.30
0.52
0.27
0.36
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Varna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spartak Varna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Varna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Varna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Septemvri Sofia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Septemvri Sofia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Septemvri Sofia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Spartak Varna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.67
1.13
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.25
0.75
2.25
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.58
0.69
0.64
0.73
0.53
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Septemvri Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Septemvri Sofia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.07
0.56
0.94
0.50
1.21
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
2.14
0.80
1.40
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.74
0.45
0.73
0.58
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Varna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spartak Varna over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Varna over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Varna over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Septemvri Sofia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Septemvri Sofia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Septemvri Sofia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
97.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.8%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.0%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
888Sport
1.05
1xBet
1.01
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
89.7%
1.03
Betano
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
82.9%
1.23
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
888Sport
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
+8.0%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
78.7%
1.25
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
1xBet
1.25
888Sport
1.25
+4.6%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
78.7%
1.26
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
-
-
+7.7%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
78.3%
1.35
Pinnacle
1.38
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
888Sport
1.36
+9.6%
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
74.9%
1.25
Unibet
1.33
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
-
+1.4%
-
Home or Away
74.4%
1.30
William Hil
1.35
888Sport
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
74.0%
1.14
Betano
1.17
888Sport
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.14
-7.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
71.7%
1.29
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Betfair
1.30
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Spartak Varna · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jota Lopes40%
Georg Stojanovski29%
Berna25%
Jota Lopes14%
Xandy12%
Ilker Budinov11%
Martin Georgiev10%
Dimo Krastev9%
Daniel Ivanov6%
Tailson0%
Deyan Lozev0%
Jacques Ivanov Pehlivanov0%
Emil Yanchev0%
Alexander Georgiev0%
Tsvetelin Chunchukov0%
Louis Pahama0%
Maksym Kovalyov0%
Tales0%
Angel Granchov0%
Saad Moukachar0%
Pedro Victor0%
Emmanuel John0%
Boris Ivanov0%
Ivan Aleksiev0%
Mateo Jurić-Petrašilo0%
Damyan Yordanov0%
Daniel Todorov Halachev0%
Tsvetoslav Marinov0%
Petar Prindzhev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Deyan Lozev40%
Ilker Budinov33%
Damyan Yordanov33%
Alexander Georgiev27%
Angel Granchov26%
Petar Prindzhev25%
Georg Stojanovski24%
Maksym Kovalyov21%
Jota Lopes20%
Tsvetelin Chunchukov18%
Dimo Krastev18%
Pedro Victor17%
Tsvetoslav Marinov15%
Daniel Todorov Halachev14%
Jota Lopes14%
Daniel Ivanov12%
Ivan Aleksiev11%
Emmanuel John10%
Martin Georgiev10%
Mateo Jurić-Petrašilo9%
Emil Yanchev6%
Tailson0%
Jacques Ivanov Pehlivanov0%
Louis Pahama0%
Tales0%
Xandy0%
Saad Moukachar0%
Berna0%
Boris Ivanov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daniel Todorov Halachev14%
Georg Stojanovski12%
Angel Granchov11%
Tsvetelin Chunchukov9%
Boris Ivanov9%
Berna8%
Emil Yanchev6%
Daniel Ivanov6%
Xandy4%
Tailson0%
Deyan Lozev0%
Jacques Ivanov Pehlivanov0%
Alexander Georgiev0%
Dimo Krastev0%
Ilker Budinov0%
Louis Pahama0%
Maksym Kovalyov0%
Tales0%
Saad Moukachar0%
Pedro Victor0%
Emmanuel John0%
Martin Georgiev0%
Ivan Aleksiev0%
Mateo Jurić-Petrašilo0%
Damyan Yordanov0%
Tsvetoslav Marinov0%
Jota Lopes0%
Petar Prindzhev0%
Jota Lopes0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Georg Stojanovski29%
Xandy12%
Tailson0%
Deyan Lozev0%
Jacques Ivanov Pehlivanov0%
Emil Yanchev0%
Alexander Georgiev0%
Tsvetelin Chunchukov0%
Dimo Krastev0%
Ilker Budinov0%
Louis Pahama0%
Maksym Kovalyov0%
Tales0%
Angel Granchov0%
Saad Moukachar0%
Daniel Ivanov0%
Pedro Victor0%
Berna0%
Emmanuel John0%
Boris Ivanov0%
Martin Georgiev0%
Ivan Aleksiev0%
Mateo Jurić-Petrašilo0%
Damyan Yordanov0%
Daniel Todorov Halachev0%
Tsvetoslav Marinov0%
Jota Lopes0%
Petar Prindzhev0%
Jota Lopes0%
Septemvri Sofia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bertrand Fourrier32%
Ali Aruna25%
Nicolas Fontaine20%
Victor Ochayi11%
Edney Ribeiro11%
Kubrat Onashchi5%
Martin Hristov5%
Yoan Baurenski0%
Yanko Georgiev0%
Mateo Stamatov0%
Galin Ivanov0%
Robin Schouten0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Valentine Ozornwafor0%
Dominik Ivkić0%
Kleri Serber0%
Faiz Mattoir0%
Ayoub Abou Oulam0%
Georgi Varbanov0%
Stoyan Stoichkov0%
Krasian Kolev0%
Bozhidar Tomovski0%
Simeon Vasilev0%
Stefan Stojanović0%
Moi Parra0%
Borislav Marinov0%
Zahari Atanasov0%
Sebas Wade0%
Gerard Franzetti0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Valon Hamdiu50%
Ali Aruna50%
Victor Ochayi44%
Ayoub Abou Oulam33%
Yoan Baurenski32%
Mateo Stamatov29%
Sebas Wade22%
Valentine Ozornwafor21%
Kleri Serber20%
Krasian Kolev20%
Georgi Varbanov17%
Simeon Vasilev17%
Galin Ivanov16%
Kubrat Onashchi15%
Nicolas Fontaine13%
Bozhidar Tomovski11%
Edney Ribeiro11%
Bertrand Fourrier11%
Moi Parra10%
Martin Hristov10%
Stefan Stojanović9%
Robin Schouten8%
Yanko Georgiev6%
Dominik Ivkić0%
Faiz Mattoir0%
Stoyan Stoichkov0%
Borislav Marinov0%
Zahari Atanasov0%
Gerard Franzetti0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kleri Serber20%
Robin Schouten15%
Mateo Stamatov14%
Nicolas Fontaine7%
Galin Ivanov5%
Yoan Baurenski0%
Yanko Georgiev0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Valentine Ozornwafor0%
Bertrand Fourrier0%
Dominik Ivkić0%
Faiz Mattoir0%
Ayoub Abou Oulam0%
Georgi Varbanov0%
Stoyan Stoichkov0%
Krasian Kolev0%
Bozhidar Tomovski0%
Martin Hristov0%
Simeon Vasilev0%
Stefan Stojanović0%
Moi Parra0%
Borislav Marinov0%
Zahari Atanasov0%
Sebas Wade0%
Victor Ochayi0%
Kubrat Onashchi0%
Ali Aruna0%
Gerard Franzetti0%
Edney Ribeiro0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bertrand Fourrier21%
Kleri Serber20%
Victor Ochayi11%
Edney Ribeiro11%
Stoyan Stoichkov7%
Nicolas Fontaine7%
Yoan Baurenski0%
Yanko Georgiev0%
Mateo Stamatov0%
Galin Ivanov0%
Robin Schouten0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Valentine Ozornwafor0%
Dominik Ivkić0%
Faiz Mattoir0%
Ayoub Abou Oulam0%
Georgi Varbanov0%
Krasian Kolev0%
Bozhidar Tomovski0%
Martin Hristov0%
Simeon Vasilev0%
Stefan Stojanović0%
Moi Parra0%
Borislav Marinov0%
Zahari Atanasov0%
Sebas Wade0%
Kubrat Onashchi0%
Ali Aruna0%
Gerard Franzetti0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (29)
€46m
LS (27)
€38m
CS (25)
€26m
C1 (30)
€18m
BP (29)
€11m
AK (20)
€10m
LP (23)
€9m
LS (25)
€8m
SS (25)
€7m
CMV (22)
€6m
SV (22)
€6m
BV (23)
€6m
DR (22)
€4m
SS (20)
€3m
Spartak Varna's squad is €2m more valuable than Septemvri Sofia's (€6m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (12)
€27m
LS (10)
€11m
CS (9)
€10m
C1 (14)
€9m
BP (12)
€5m
AK (7)
€3m
LS (11)
€3m
CMV (8)
€3m
LP (8)
€3m
SS (11)
€2m
BV (8)
€2m
SV (7)
€2m
DR (6)
€1m
SS (8)
€1m
Spartak Varna's attack is €1m more valuable than Septemvri Sofia's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (5)
€8m
CS (6)
€6m
LUD (4)
€6m
AK (3)
€3m
LS (6)
€2m
C1 (4)
€2m
BP (6)
€2m
LP (5)
€2m
SS (4)
€2m
BV (5)
€1m
CMV (5)
€1m
DR (5)
€1m
SV (4)
€1m
SS (4)
€1m
Spartak Varna and Septemvri Sofia have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (12)
€19m
LUD (13)
€13m
CS (10)
€10m
C1 (12)
€7m
BP (11)
€4m
LP (10)
€4m
AK (10)
€3m
SS (10)
€3m
LS (8)
€3m
SV (11)
€3m
CMV (9)
€2m
BV (10)
€2m
DR (11)
€2m
SS (8)
€2m
Spartak Varna's defence is €1m more valuable than Septemvri Sofia's (€3m vs €2m).
Bulgaria: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Levski Sofia
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
CSKA 1948
Arda Kardzhali
Slavia Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
Cherno More Varna
Botev Vratsa
Dunav Ruse
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Sofia