Spartakos Kitiou are the clear favourites, with the model rating a home win at 67%. Their recent 2-0 victory over Ahironas / Onisilos shows they are coming off a win, while Ayia Napa, despite a 3-0 win against Doxa, have struggled away, conceding 1.62 goals on average to stronger opponents. The expected total is 3.4 goals, with the most likely total of 3 goals at 22%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Spartakos Kitiou, with a 9.7% chance. Spartakos average 0.0 goals scored and 2.5 conceded at home against weaker sides, whereas Ayia Napa average 1.46 scored and 1.62 conceded away against stronger teams. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (98.1%), Under 7.5 (97.8%), Home +2 handicap (95.1%), Under 6.5 (94.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.9%), Home over 0.5 goals (90.5%), Under 5.5 (87.6%), and Home or Draw (86.3%). The probabilities for the match outcome are Home win 67%, Draw 20%, Away win 14%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Spartakos Kitiou win
62.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa win
16.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Spartakos Kitiou
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.33
1.40
1.47
1.60
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.75
1.25
1.62
1.31
1.91
1.18
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
1.67
0.00
2.50
0.75
1.25
Clean sheet %
30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayia Napa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ayia Napa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.47
1.21
1.50
1.56
1.44
vs Stronger (26)
1.35
1.54
1.23
1.46
1.46
1.62
vs Similar (4)
1.75
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartakos Kitiou) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.9%
Under 1.5
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62.3%
Under 2.5
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
40.0%
Under 3.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.2%
No
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.5%
1-0
7.8%
3-1
7.2%
3-0
6.9%
2-2
5.1%
0-0
4.9%
Spartakos Kitiou goals ↓
Ayia Napa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
3.3%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
1
7.8%
10%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
2
9.5%
9.9%
5.1%
1.8%
0.5%
3
6.9%
7.2%
3.7%
1.3%
0.3%
4
3.7%
3.9%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spartakos Kitiou goals (down), columns = Ayia Napa goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ethnikos Achna
2.66
Akritas
2.54
Enosis
2.44
PAEEK
1.59
Halkanoras
1.55
Doxa
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.41
Ermis
1.37
Polemidion
1.37
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.37
APEA
1.34
Spartakos Kitiou
1.34
Digenis Morphou
1.34
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.28
ASIL Lysi
1.07
MEAP Nisou
1.00
Spartakos Kitiou is 0.07 points worse than Ayia Napa in terms of average points per game (1.34 vs 1.41).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ethnikos Achna
2.62
Akritas
2.50
Enosis
2.40
Halkanoras
1.62
Digenis Morphou
1.55
PAEEK
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.45
Spartakos Kitiou
1.45
Ermis
1.35
Polemidion
1.35
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.35
APEA
1.31
Doxa
1.17
ASIL Lysi
1.10
MEAP Nisou
1.07
Iraklis Yerolakkou
0.93
Spartakos Kitiou and Ayia Napa are level in goals scored per game (both 1.45).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ethnikos Achna
0.70
Akritas
0.73
Enosis
0.76
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.03
PAEEK
1.07
Doxa
1.21
Spartakos Kitiou
1.24
Halkanoras
1.28
APEA
1.31
Digenis Morphou
1.31
Ermis
1.35
Polemidion
1.35
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.35
Ayia Napa
1.48
ASIL Lysi
1.72
MEAP Nisou
1.72
Spartakos Kitiou is 0.24 goals better than Ayia Napa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.24 vs 1.48).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Spartakos Kitiou or Draw
83.8%
Avg Implied -
62%
22%
16%
covers Spartakos Kitiou + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spartakos Kitiou or Ayia Napa
78.4%
Avg Implied -
62%
22%
16%
covers Spartakos Kitiou + Ayia Napa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ayia Napa
37.8%
Avg Implied -
62%
22%
16%
covers Draw + Ayia Napa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Spartakos Kitiou over/under 0.5
Over
88.6%
Under
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartakos Kitiou over/under 1.5
Over
63.8%
Under
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartakos Kitiou over/under 2.5
Over
36.9%
Under
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartakos Kitiou over/under 3.5
Over
17.5%
Under
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 0.5
Over
64.7%
Under
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 1.5
Over
27.9%
Under
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 2.5
Over
8.8%
Under
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 3.5
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Spartakos Kitiou, so a minus line means Spartakos Kitiou give that many goals of a start and Ayia Napa receive them. At -1, Spartakos Kitiou must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Spartakos Kitiou win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Spartakos Kitiou)
Spartakos Kitiou -2
21.0%
Draw -2
19.0%
Ayia Napa +2
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Spartakos Kitiou)
Spartakos Kitiou -1
40.0%
Draw -1
22.2%
Ayia Napa +1
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Spartakos Kitiou)
Spartakos Kitiou +1
83.8%
Draw +1
10.2%
Ayia Napa -1
6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Spartakos Kitiou)
Spartakos Kitiou +2
94.0%
Draw +2
4.4%
Ayia Napa -2
1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Spartakos Kitiou
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.47
0.67
0.60
1.00
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.96
0.54
0.77
0.69
1.18
0.36
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
0.17
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayia Napa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ayia Napa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.00
0.43
0.93
0.62
1.06
vs Stronger (26)
0.54
1.08
0.46
1.00
0.62
1.15
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartakos Kitiou) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spartakos Kitiou over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartakos Kitiou over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartakos Kitiou over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Spartakos Kitiou
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.73
0.87
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.79
0.71
0.85
0.62
0.73
0.82
vs Weaker (6)
0.17
1.50
0.00
2.50
0.25
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayia Napa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ayia Napa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.47
0.79
0.57
0.94
0.38
vs Stronger (26)
0.81
0.46
0.77
0.46
0.85
0.46
vs Similar (4)
1.25
0.50
1.00
2.00
1.33
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartakos Kitiou) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spartakos Kitiou over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartakos Kitiou over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartakos Kitiou over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayia Napa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Cyprus: 2. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 2. Division stats & trends →