Spartanii Selemet’s recent home form shows a fragile defense, conceding 2.33 goals per game against weaker opposition, while their attack lags at 1.33 goals. FCM Ungheni, playing away, has been more prolific, scoring 2.07 goals and conceding 1.79 against stronger teams, suggesting they will push for a win. The model favours an away victory with a 49% probability, a draw 22%, and a home win 29%. The expected total goals are 3.9, pointing to a high-scoring affair, yet the most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 8.5%. The single most probable total of goals is three, with a 20% chance. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals (95.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.0%), Over 1.5 (90.5%), Under 6.5 (90.4%), Away over 0.5 goals (88.6%), Away +2 handicap (85.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (82.5%), and Home over 0.5 goals (81.3%). These selections reflect the model’s confidence that FCM Ungheni will secure the win while keeping the scoreline close.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Spartanii Selemet win
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni win
48.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Spartanii Selemet
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
3.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
2.80
1.29
2.64
0.94
2.94
vs Stronger (14)
1.00
3.64
1.17
4.17
0.88
3.25
vs Similar (12)
1.08
2.08
1.40
1.00
0.86
2.86
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
2.00
1.33
2.33
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FCM Ungheni
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.5
Avg scored
3.2
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.53
1.77
3.07
1.57
2.06
1.94
vs Stronger (26)
2.65
1.65
3.33
1.50
2.07
1.79
vs Similar (4)
1.75
2.50
1.50
2.00
2.00
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartanii Selemet) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
90.5%
Under 1.5
9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
73.9%
Under 2.5
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
53.7%
Under 3.5
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
72.8%
No
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.5%
1-2
8.4%
2-2
7.1%
2-1
6.5%
1-3
6.1%
2-3
5.1%
0-2
5.0%
3-2
4.0%
Spartanii Selemet goals ↓
FCM Ungheni goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.9%
3.8%
5.0%
3.6%
2.0%
1
2.8%
8.5%
8.4%
6.1%
3.3%
2
3.0%
6.5%
7.1%
5.1%
2.8%
3
1.7%
3.6%
4.0%
2.9%
1.6%
4
0.7%
1.5%
1.7%
1.2%
0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spartanii Selemet goals (down), columns = FCM Ungheni goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.94
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
Spartanii Selemet is 0.03 points better than FCM Ungheni in terms of average points per game (1.94 vs 1.91).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.53
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
Spartanii Selemet is 0.06 goals worse than FCM Ungheni in terms of goals scored per game (2.53 vs 2.59).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.37
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
Spartanii Selemet is 0.18 goals better than FCM Ungheni in terms of goals conceded per game (1.37 vs 1.55).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Spartanii Selemet or Draw
51.5%
Avg Implied -
29%
22%
49%
covers Spartanii Selemet + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet or FCM Ungheni
77.9%
Avg Implied -
29%
22%
49%
covers Spartanii Selemet + FCM Ungheni
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FCM Ungheni
70.6%
Avg Implied -
29%
22%
49%
covers Draw + FCM Ungheni
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 0.5
Over
81.3%
Under
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 1.5
Over
50.0%
Under
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 2.5
Over
23.7%
Under
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 3.5
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 0.5
Over
88.6%
Under
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 1.5
Over
63.8%
Under
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 2.5
Over
37.0%
Under
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 3.5
Over
17.5%
Under
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Spartanii Selemet, so a minus line means Spartanii Selemet give that many goals of a start and FCM Ungheni receive them. At -1, Spartanii Selemet must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Spartanii Selemet win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Spartanii Selemet)
Spartanii Selemet -2
5.9%
Draw -2
8.8%
FCM Ungheni +2
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Spartanii Selemet)
Spartanii Selemet -1
14.6%
Draw -1
14.7%
FCM Ungheni +1
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Spartanii Selemet)
Spartanii Selemet +1
51.5%
Draw +1
19.3%
FCM Ungheni -1
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Spartanii Selemet)
Spartanii Selemet +2
70.7%
Draw +2
14.7%
FCM Ungheni -2
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Spartanii Selemet
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.40
0.64
1.43
0.25
1.38
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
2.07
0.67
2.67
0.12
1.62
vs Similar (12)
0.33
0.83
0.60
0.40
0.14
1.14
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.75
0.67
0.67
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FCM Ungheni
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.80
1.79
0.86
1.19
0.75
vs Stronger (26)
1.50
0.85
1.92
0.83
1.14
0.86
vs Similar (4)
1.25
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartanii Selemet) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Spartanii Selemet
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.40
0.64
1.21
0.69
1.56
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.57
0.50
1.50
0.75
1.62
vs Similar (12)
0.75
1.25
0.80
0.60
0.71
1.71
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
1.25
0.67
1.67
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FCM Ungheni
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.97
1.29
0.71
0.88
1.19
vs Stronger (26)
1.15
0.81
1.42
0.67
0.93
0.93
vs Similar (4)
0.50
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartanii Selemet) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SS (12)
€1m
FU (2)
€0m
ZI (1)
€0m
Spartanii Selemet's squad is €1m more valuable than FCM Ungheni's (€1m vs €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SS (4)
€0m
ZI (1)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Spartanii Selemet and FCM Ungheni have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SS (4)
€0m
ZI (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Spartanii Selemet and FCM Ungheni have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SS (4)
€0m
FU (2)
€0m
ZI (0)
€0m
Spartanii Selemet and FCM Ungheni have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vulturii Cutezători
Iskra
Oguzsport
Univer Comrat
FC Stăuceni
Făleşti
FC National Ialoveni
Victoria Bardar
Zimbru II
Floreşti