Spartanii Selemet face Iskra with the model pointing squarely at an away win, the most likely outcome. The odds lean heavily toward the visitors, with a 60% chance of victory, a 23% chance of a draw and only 17% for a home triumph. The match is expected to see about 3.0 goals on average, yet the most probable total is 2 goals, a 23% probability. The single score most likely to materialise is a 1-1 draw, with an 11% chance.
Spartanii Selemet have struggled at home against stronger opponents, averaging 1.17 goals scored and conceding 4.17. Iskra, on the other hand, have been more efficient away from home, scoring 1.27 and conceding 2.18 against weaker teams. Recent form shows Spartanii Selemet coming off a 1-6 defeat after three straight losses, while Iskra arrive on a three-game winning streak, having beaten FCM Ungheni 3-2.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 98.8%, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.1%, Under 6.5 at 96.6%, Away +2 handicap at 93.7%, Home under 2.5 goals at 92.0%, Under 5.5 at 91.6%, Away over 0.5 goals at 86.5%, and Away under 3.5 goals at 85.7%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Spartanii Selemet win
17.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Iskra win
59.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Spartanii Selemet
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
3.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
2.80
1.29
2.64
0.94
2.94
vs Stronger (14)
1.00
3.64
1.17
4.17
0.88
3.25
vs Similar (12)
1.08
2.08
1.40
1.00
0.86
2.86
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
2.00
1.33
2.33
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iskra
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.60
2.07
1.47
1.60
1.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
2.10
0.60
1.83
0.67
2.50
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.70
2.10
2.22
2.00
1.27
2.18
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartanii Selemet) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.1%
Under 1.5
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.7%
Under 2.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.3%
Under 3.5
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.6%
No
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
0-2
10.0%
1-2
10.0%
0-1
9.0%
0-3
6.6%
1-3
6.6%
0-0
6.0%
2-2
5.0%
Spartanii Selemet goals ↓
Iskra goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
9.0%
10.0%
6.6%
3.3%
1
4.0%
11%
10.0%
6.6%
3.3%
2
2.5%
5.0%
5.0%
3.3%
1.7%
3
0.8%
1.7%
1.7%
1.1%
0.6%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spartanii Selemet goals (down), columns = Iskra goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.94
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
Spartanii Selemet is 0.14 points better than Iskra in terms of average points per game (1.94 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.53
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
Spartanii Selemet is 0.60 goals better than Iskra in terms of goals scored per game (2.53 vs 1.93).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.37
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
Spartanii Selemet is 0.57 goals better than Iskra in terms of goals conceded per game (1.37 vs 1.93).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Spartanii Selemet or Draw
40.4%
Avg Implied -
17%
23%
60%
covers Spartanii Selemet + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet or Iskra
76.8%
Avg Implied -
17%
23%
60%
covers Spartanii Selemet + Iskra
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Iskra
82.8%
Avg Implied -
17%
23%
60%
covers Draw + Iskra
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 0.5
Over
63.2%
Under
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 1.5
Over
26.4%
Under
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 2.5
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 3.5
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 0.5
Over
86.5%
Under
13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5
Over
59.4%
Under
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5
Over
32.4%
Under
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 3.5
Over
14.3%
Under
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Spartanii Selemet, so a minus line means Spartanii Selemet give that many goals of a start and Iskra receive them. At -1, Spartanii Selemet must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Spartanii Selemet win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Spartanii Selemet)
Spartanii Selemet -2
1.7%
Draw -2
4.6%
Iskra +2
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Spartanii Selemet)
Spartanii Selemet -1
6.3%
Draw -1
10.9%
Iskra +1
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Spartanii Selemet)
Spartanii Selemet +1
40.4%
Draw +1
22.9%
Iskra -1
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Spartanii Selemet)
Spartanii Selemet +2
63.2%
Draw +2
18.5%
Iskra -2
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Spartanii Selemet
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.40
0.64
1.43
0.25
1.38
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
2.07
0.67
2.67
0.12
1.62
vs Similar (12)
0.33
0.83
0.60
0.40
0.14
1.14
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.75
0.67
0.67
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iskra
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.77
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.10
0.83
0.17
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.95
1.10
1.11
1.22
0.82
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartanii Selemet) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Spartanii Selemet
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.40
0.64
1.21
0.69
1.56
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.57
0.50
1.50
0.75
1.62
vs Similar (12)
0.75
1.25
0.80
0.60
0.71
1.71
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
1.25
0.67
1.67
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iskra
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.83
1.07
0.67
0.60
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
0.75
1.00
1.11
0.78
0.45
1.18
Clean sheet %
57% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartanii Selemet) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →
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Vulturii Cutezători
FCM Ungheni
Oguzsport
Univer Comrat
FC Stăuceni
Făleşti
FC National Ialoveni
Victoria Bardar
Zimbru II
Floreşti