Spartanii Selemet’s recent five matches (LLDLL) and a 0-10 loss to Iskra signal a defensive collapse, while Univer Comrat’s last five (DLWLL) include a 3-3 draw and a respectable 2.83 average away goals scored against weaker opposition. The model projects a 43 % chance of an away win, 33 % for home, and 24 % for a draw, making an away victory the clear favourite. With an expected total of 3.5 goals, the most likely total is three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.3 % probability. Spartanii’s home form shows they concede three goals per game against stronger teams, whereas Univer Comrat’s away form sees them conceding only 1.33 goals while scoring 2.83. Suggested picks include a 98.2 % chance of Home under 2.5 HT goals, 97.5 % Under 7.5 total goals, 95.1 % Home under 2.5 2H goals, 94.8 % Away under 2.5 HT goals, 93.8 % Under 6.5 total goals, 93.2 % Away under 2.5 2H goals, 92.0 % Home under 3.5 goals, and 89.1 % Home under 1.5 HT goals.
Results analysis
Spartanii Selemet’s recent slump of three consecutive defeats was put to rest as they fell to a 1-6 loss to Univer Comrat, who were riding a win-draw-lose-win-lose run. The match delivered a far higher total than the model’s 3.5-goal expectation, with six goals scored. The pre-match favourite was the away side, given a 43% chance, and the model’s call was correct. The model’s selections were mixed: Under 7.5 (97.5%) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.4%) hit, Home under 3.5 goals (92.0%) hit, Home under 2.5 2H goals (90.6%) hit, while Under 6.5 (93.8%) missed, Away under 2.5 2H goals (92.2%) missed, Away under 2.5 HT goals (90.5%) missed and Away under 3.5 goals (88.4%) missed.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Spartanii Selemet win✗ Miss
33.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat win✓ Hit
42.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Spartanii Selemet
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
3.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
2.63
1.21
2.29
0.94
2.94
vs Stronger (13)
1.00
3.46
1.20
3.80
0.88
3.25
vs Similar (13)
1.00
2.00
1.17
1.00
0.86
2.86
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
2.00
1.33
2.33
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Univer Comrat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Univer Comrat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.04
1.96
2.06
1.94
2.00
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.22
1.89
1.40
1.40
1.00
2.50
vs Weaker (18)
2.44
2.00
2.36
2.18
2.57
1.71
Clean sheet %
22% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartanii Selemet) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.9%
Under 1.5
13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.0%
Under 2.5
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
45.3%
Under 3.5
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
68.3%
No
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
7.6%
2-2
7.0%
0-2
5.4%
1-3
5.3%
0-1
4.9%
2-3
4.3%
Spartanii Selemet goals ↓
Univer Comrat goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
4.9%
5.4%
3.3%
1.5%
1
4.2%
10%
8.7%
5.3%
2.5%
2
4.1%
7.6%
7.0%
4.3%
2.0%
3
2.2%
4.1%
3.7%
2.3%
1.1%
4
0.9%
1.6%
1.5%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spartanii Selemet goals (down), columns = Univer Comrat goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.94
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
Spartanii Selemet is 0.22 points better than Univer Comrat in terms of average points per game (1.94 vs 1.73).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.53
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
Spartanii Selemet is 0.53 goals better than Univer Comrat in terms of goals scored per game (2.53 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.37
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
Spartanii Selemet is 0.31 goals better than Univer Comrat in terms of goals conceded per game (1.37 vs 1.68).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Spartanii Selemet or Draw✗ Miss
57.2%
Avg Implied -
33%
24%
43%
covers Spartanii Selemet + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet or Univer Comrat✓ Hit
75.8%
Avg Implied -
33%
24%
43%
covers Spartanii Selemet + Univer Comrat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Univer Comrat✓ Hit
66.9%
Avg Implied -
33%
24%
43%
covers Draw + Univer Comrat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.0%
Under
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
47.8%
Under
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.9%
Under
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.2%
Under
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
55.0%
Under
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
28.1%
Under
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Spartanii Selemet, so a minus line means Spartanii Selemet give that many goals of a start and Univer Comrat receive them. At -1, Spartanii Selemet must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Spartanii Selemet win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Univer Comrat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Univer Comrat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.96
0.92
1.13
0.73
0.73
1.18
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.22
1.00
0.20
0.60
0.25
1.50
vs Weaker (17)
1.35
0.88
1.60
0.80
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
42% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartanii Selemet) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.8%
Under 0.5
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
37.3%
Under 1.5
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
17.0%
Under 2.5
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
46.7%
Under
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
54.3%
Under
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
16.6%
Under
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
9.5%
Under
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Spartanii Selemet
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.33
0.64
1.07
0.69
1.56
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
1.46
0.60
1.20
0.75
1.62
vs Similar (13)
0.69
1.23
0.67
0.67
0.71
1.71
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
1.25
0.67
1.67
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Univer Comrat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Univer Comrat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.15
1.04
1.07
1.20
1.27
0.82
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.89
1.20
0.80
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
1.24
1.12
1.00
1.40
1.57
0.71
Clean sheet %
35% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartanii Selemet) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
83.2%
Under 0.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
60.1%
Under 1.5
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
27.0%
Under 2.5
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
61.8%
Under
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
30.4%
Under
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
58.9%
Under
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
28.3%
Under
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →