This opponent (Ascoli) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ascoli
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.30
1.36
1.64
0.88
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
2.50
1.00
3.33
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (24)
1.17
1.00
1.45
1.18
0.92
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Spezia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
65.3%
Under 1.5
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
37.1%
Under 2.5
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.6%
Under 3.5
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.6%
No
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
1-0
12.7%
0-0
12.7%
0-1
9.4%
2-0
8.6%
2-1 ✓
8.1%
1-2
6.2%
0-2
5.0%
Spezia goals ↓
Ascoli goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
9.4%
5.0%
1.6%
0.4%
1
13%
15%
6.2%
2.0%
0.5%
2
8.6%
8.1%
3.8%
1.2%
0.3%
3
3.5%
3.3%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.1%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spezia goals (down), columns = Ascoli goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Spal
1.86
Frosinone
1.76
Hellas Verona
1.76
Benevento
1.57
Perugia
1.55
Cittadella
1.50
Carpi
1.48
Spezia
1.43
Novara
1.33
Salernitana
1.29
Virtus Entella
1.29
Cesena
1.26
Bari
1.26
Avellino
1.24
Brescia
1.19
Ternana
1.17
Ascoli
1.17
Pro Vercelli
1.17
Trapani
1.05
Vicenza Virtus
0.98
Pisa
0.93
Latina
0.93
Spezia is 0.26 points better than Ascoli in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Spal
1.57
Hellas Verona
1.52
Cittadella
1.43
Frosinone
1.36
Benevento
1.33
Perugia
1.29
Virtus Entella
1.29
Cesena
1.21
Brescia
1.17
Novara
1.14
Trapani
1.07
Ascoli
1.05
Salernitana
1.05
Ternana
1.00
Carpi
0.98
Avellino
0.95
Bari
0.93
Latina
0.90
Spezia
0.90
Pro Vercelli
0.83
Vicenza Virtus
0.79
Pisa
0.55
Spezia is 0.14 goals worse than Ascoli in terms of goals scored per game (0.90 vs 1.05).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spezia
0.81
Pisa
0.86
Spal
0.93
Carpi
0.95
Perugia
0.95
Hellas Verona
0.95
Frosinone
1.00
Benevento
1.00
Bari
1.05
Salernitana
1.05
Pro Vercelli
1.07
Cesena
1.14
Ascoli
1.17
Latina
1.19
Novara
1.19
Virtus Entella
1.21
Vicenza Virtus
1.24
Ternana
1.26
Cittadella
1.29
Trapani
1.31
Avellino
1.31
Brescia
1.38
Spezia is 0.36 goals better than Ascoli in terms of goals conceded per game (0.81 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Spezia
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Ascoli
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Spezia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (35)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Ascoli) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ascoli
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (9)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (41)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Spezia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
12.0
Hellas Verona
11.4
Carpi
10.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Frosinone
5.6
Carpi
5.4
Hellas Verona
4.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Frosinone
32.1
Carpi
31.9
Hellas Verona
31.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Spezia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.47
0.50
0.38
0.36
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (7)
0.14
0.43
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.25
vs Weaker (22)
0.55
0.36
0.54
0.31
0.56
0.44
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Ascoli) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ascoli
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.47
0.50
0.64
0.31
0.31
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.33
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.25
0.55
0.27
0.38
0.23
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Spezia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spezia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spezia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spezia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ascoli over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ascoli over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ascoli over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Spezia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.47
0.75
0.50
0.29
0.43
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (7)
0.29
0.57
0.33
0.67
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (22)
0.64
0.41
0.85
0.46
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Ascoli) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ascoli
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.86
1.00
0.56
0.69
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.17
0.67
1.33
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.75
0.91
0.91
0.54
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Spezia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spezia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spezia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spezia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ascoli over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ascoli over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ascoli over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Spezia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gabriele Artistico36%
Gianluca Lapadula32%
Mattia Valoti25%
Giuseppe Aurelio20%
Giuseppe Di Serio11%
Vanja Vlahović9%
Giovanni Bonfanti8%
Salvatore Esposito8%
Filippo Bandinelli6%
Pietro Beruatto6%
Rachid Kouda6%
Edoardo Soleri5%
Leonardo Sernicola5%
Luca Vignali3%
Ádám Nagy0%
Antonio Candela0%
Francesco Cassata0%
Andrea Cistana0%
Aleš Matějů0%
Petko Hristov0%
Boris Radunović0%
Przemysław Wiśniewski0%
Daniele Verde0%
Alessandro Bellemo0%
Mouhamadou Sarr0%
Marco Ruggero0%
Emanuele Adamo0%
Laurs Skjellerup0%
Alessandro Romano0%
Pietro Candelari0%
Diego Mascardi0%
Christian Comotto0%
Fellipe Jack0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Francesco Cassata41%
Salvatore Esposito38%
Filippo Bandinelli38%
Fellipe Jack38%
Alessandro Bellemo27%
Giovanni Bonfanti25%
Aleš Matějů23%
Marco Ruggero22%
Alessandro Romano21%
Mattia Valoti19%
Emanuele Adamo19%
Petko Hristov17%
Luca Vignali17%
Laurs Skjellerup17%
Ádám Nagy15%
Giuseppe Di Serio15%
Pietro Beruatto15%
Pietro Candelari14%
Rachid Kouda12%
Andrea Cistana11%
Leonardo Sernicola10%
Przemysław Wiśniewski10%
Christian Comotto10%
Gabriele Artistico9%
Giuseppe Aurelio6%
Antonio Candela5%
Gianluca Lapadula5%
Edoardo Soleri5%
Boris Radunović0%
Daniele Verde0%
Mouhamadou Sarr0%
Vanja Vlahović0%
Diego Mascardi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daniele Verde17%
Giovanni Bonfanti17%
Salvatore Esposito15%
Mattia Valoti12%
Pietro Beruatto12%
Gianluca Lapadula11%
Leonardo Sernicola10%
Alessandro Bellemo9%
Vanja Vlahović9%
Giuseppe Aurelio9%
Ádám Nagy7%
Rachid Kouda6%
Antonio Candela5%
Alessandro Romano5%
Francesco Cassata5%
Giuseppe Di Serio4%
Luca Vignali3%
Aleš Matějů3%
Christian Comotto3%
Gabriele Artistico3%
Filippo Bandinelli0%
Andrea Cistana0%
Petko Hristov0%
Boris Radunović0%
Przemysław Wiśniewski0%
Edoardo Soleri0%
Mouhamadou Sarr0%
Marco Ruggero0%
Emanuele Adamo0%
Laurs Skjellerup0%
Pietro Candelari0%
Diego Mascardi0%
Fellipe Jack0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gabriele Artistico24%
Giovanni Bonfanti17%
Mattia Valoti12%
Gianluca Lapadula11%
Edoardo Soleri11%
Salvatore Esposito8%
Vanja Vlahović4%
Aleš Matějů3%
Giuseppe Aurelio3%
Ádám Nagy0%
Leonardo Sernicola0%
Filippo Bandinelli0%
Antonio Candela0%
Luca Vignali0%
Francesco Cassata0%
Andrea Cistana0%
Petko Hristov0%
Boris Radunović0%
Przemysław Wiśniewski0%
Daniele Verde0%
Alessandro Bellemo0%
Pietro Beruatto0%
Mouhamadou Sarr0%
Giuseppe Di Serio0%
Marco Ruggero0%
Emanuele Adamo0%
Laurs Skjellerup0%
Rachid Kouda0%
Alessandro Romano0%
Pietro Candelari0%
Diego Mascardi0%
Christian Comotto0%
Fellipe Jack0%
Ascoli · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Andrea Silipo67%
Gabriele Gori33%
Simone D'Uffizi33%
Marcos Curado0%
Samuele Damiani0%
Don Bolsius0%
Abdoul Guiebre0%
Nicholas Rizzo0%
Samuele Vitale0%
Tommaso Milanese0%
Giovanni Corradini0%
Andrea Oliveri0%
Sergiu Perciun0%
Amine Chakir0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Abdoul Guiebre67%
Giovanni Corradini67%
Simone D'Uffizi67%
Gabriele Gori33%
Marcos Curado33%
Samuele Damiani0%
Don Bolsius0%
Nicholas Rizzo0%
Andrea Silipo0%
Samuele Vitale0%
Tommaso Milanese0%
Andrea Oliveri0%
Sergiu Perciun0%
Amine Chakir0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Samuele Damiani33%
Simone D'Uffizi33%
Amine Chakir33%
Gabriele Gori0%
Marcos Curado0%
Don Bolsius0%
Abdoul Guiebre0%
Nicholas Rizzo0%
Andrea Silipo0%
Samuele Vitale0%
Tommaso Milanese0%
Giovanni Corradini0%
Andrea Oliveri0%
Sergiu Perciun0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Amine Chakir67%
Andrea Silipo33%
Gabriele Gori0%
Marcos Curado0%
Samuele Damiani0%
Don Bolsius0%
Abdoul Guiebre0%
Nicholas Rizzo0%
Samuele Vitale0%
Tommaso Milanese0%
Giovanni Corradini0%
Simone D'Uffizi0%
Andrea Oliveri0%
Sergiu Perciun0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRO (33)
€84m
PIS (36)
€71m
HV (34)
€57m
CES (32)
€28m
AVE (27)
€26m
BEN (30)
€12m
VV (26)
€11m
SPE (34)
€11m
VE (27)
€11m
ASC (29)
€11m
BAR (22)
€8m
Spezia and Ascoli have a similar squad value (both €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRO (8)
€34m
PIS (13)
€24m
HV (10)
€13m
CES (10)
€10m
AVE (10)
€6m
ASC (11)
€5m
BEN (8)
€4m
SPE (10)
€3m
VE (7)
€3m
VV (6)
€2m
BAR (6)
€2m
Spezia's attack is €2m less valuable than Ascoli's (€3m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRO (11)
€27m
PIS (9)
€26m
HV (9)
€14m
AVE (6)
€9m
VE (11)
€6m
CES (9)
€5m
VV (12)
€5m
SPE (11)
€4m
BEN (9)
€3m
BAR (6)
€3m
ASC (6)
€3m
Spezia's midfield is €2m more valuable than Ascoli's (€4m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HV (15)
€30m
FRO (14)
€24m
PIS (14)
€22m
CES (13)
€12m
AVE (11)
€11m
BEN (13)
€5m
SPE (13)
€4m
VV (8)
€4m
BAR (10)
€3m
ASC (12)
€3m
VE (9)
€2m
Spezia's defence is €1m more valuable than Ascoli's (€4m vs €3m).
Italy: Serie B 2016/17 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
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Spal
Hellas Verona
Frosinone
Benevento
Perugia
Cittadella
Virtus Entella
Salernitana
Cesena
Bari
Avellino
Brescia
Ternana
Vicenza Virtus
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