This opponent (Brescia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brescia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.40
0.69
1.19
0.93
1.64
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
1.67
0.50
1.50
0.75
2.00
vs Similar (17)
0.88
1.29
0.88
0.88
0.89
1.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Spezia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.6%
Under 1.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.1%
@ 2.01-3.8%
Under 2.5
56.9%
@ 1.78+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.2%
Under 3.5
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.2%
No
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0 ✓
10.3%
1-0
9.6%
0-1
9.5%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
7.8%
2-0
6.6%
0-2
6.4%
Spezia goals ↓
Brescia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
9.5%
6.4%
2.6%
0.8%
1
9.6%
14%
7.8%
3.1%
0.9%
2
6.6%
7.9%
4.7%
1.9%
0.6%
3
2.7%
3.2%
1.9%
0.8%
0.2%
4
0.8%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spezia goals (down), columns = Brescia goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Parma
2.00
Como
1.92
Venezia
1.90
Cremonese
1.71
Catanzaro
1.51
Sampdoria
1.46
Palermo
1.44
Brescia
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.24
Modena
1.24
Reggiana
1.24
Cittadella
1.21
Pisa
1.21
Spezia
1.16
Bari
1.12
Ternana
1.10
Ascoli
1.08
FeralpiSalo
0.87
Lecco
0.68
Spezia is 0.18 points worse than Brescia in terms of average points per game (1.16 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Venezia
1.74
Parma
1.74
Palermo
1.59
Catanzaro
1.56
Como
1.53
Sampdoria
1.36
Pisa
1.34
Cremonese
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.21
Brescia
1.18
FeralpiSalo
1.16
Ternana
1.10
Modena
1.08
Cittadella
1.05
Bari
1.05
Ascoli
1.00
Reggiana
1.00
Spezia
0.95
Lecco
0.92
Spezia is 0.23 goals worse than Brescia in terms of goals scored per game (0.95 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cremonese
0.86
Parma
0.92
Como
1.05
Brescia
1.08
Cosenza
1.11
Ascoli
1.11
Venezia
1.12
Reggiana
1.18
Cittadella
1.24
Modena
1.24
Bari
1.25
Sudtirol
1.26
Spezia
1.29
Sampdoria
1.33
Ternana
1.35
Palermo
1.37
Catanzaro
1.41
Pisa
1.42
FeralpiSalo
1.71
Lecco
1.95
Spezia is 0.21 goals worse than Brescia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Catanzaro
58%
Pisa
56%
Cremonese
56%
Venezia
52%
Reggiana
52%
Como
51%
Spezia
51%
Sampdoria
51%
Parma
50%
Bari
50%
Palermo
50%
Modena
50%
Cosenza
49%
Brescia
48%
Sudtirol
48%
Cittadella
47%
Lecco
47%
FeralpiSalo
45%
Ascoli
45%
Ternana
44%
Spezia is 2.7 percentage points better than Brescia in terms of average possession (51% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Spezia
For 4.8 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 3.4 · Total 6.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 18.0 · Against 17.0 · Total 35.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Brescia
For 5.7 · Against 7.3 · Total 13.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 17.0 · Total 32.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Spezia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
9.2
7.8
1.1
1.2
1.0
28.4
25.0
32.4
vs Stronger (23)
8.6
8.6
-
1.0
1.6
0.0
24.2
24.2
-
vs Similar (25)
8.5
12.0
7.8
1.3
0.7
1.8
31.8
29.0
32.4
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
45%
50%
40%
16%
15%
17%
82%
67%
100%
% under line
55%
50%
60%
84%
85%
83%
18%
33%
0%
This opponent (Brescia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brescia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.7
11.8
11.5
0.9
1.0
0.7
26.0
25.0
27.5
vs Stronger (20)
10.2
11.5
9.0
0.8
0.9
0.8
22.2
21.5
23.0
vs Similar (29)
12.0
12.0
12.0
0.7
1.1
0.3
26.8
26.8
27.0
vs Weaker (1)
16.0
-
16.0
5.0
-
5.0
37.0
-
37.0
% over line
80%
83%
75%
14%
15%
12%
70%
67%
75%
% under line
20%
17%
25%
86%
85%
88%
30%
33%
25%
This opponent (Spezia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Lecco
13.7
Modena
12.0
Brescia
11.6
Pisa
11.0
Parma
10.7
Venezia
10.3
Como
10.2
FeralpiSalo
10.2
Bari
10.1
Ascoli
10.1
Ternana
9.9
Palermo
9.6
Cremonese
9.6
Reggiana
9.6
Sampdoria
9.4
Catanzaro
9.3
Cittadella
9.3
Spezia
9.2
Cosenza
8.6
Sudtirol
7.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cittadella
6.2
Pisa
5.8
Ascoli
5.6
Cremonese
5.4
Modena
5.4
Parma
5.4
Como
5.3
Cosenza
5.2
Sudtirol
5.2
FeralpiSalo
5.2
Venezia
5.1
Reggiana
5.1
Spezia
4.9
Ternana
4.9
Palermo
4.9
Sampdoria
4.6
Bari
4.6
Brescia
4.6
Catanzaro
4.5
Lecco
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cittadella
33.4
Pisa
32.5
Reggiana
31.4
Ascoli
31.0
Palermo
30.6
Como
30.2
Sudtirol
30.0
Parma
28.8
Cremonese
28.7
Ternana
28.6
Bari
28.3
Spezia
27.5
Sampdoria
26.9
Cosenza
26.9
Brescia
26.7
FeralpiSalo
26.5
Venezia
26.5
Lecco
26.0
Catanzaro
25.7
Modena
25.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
60.6%
Under 9.5
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
80.8%
Under 3.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
93.1%
Under 21.5
6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Spezia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.63
0.20
0.67
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.67
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.59
0.17
0.83
0.55
0.45
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Brescia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brescia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.57
0.25
0.44
0.29
0.71
vs Stronger (12)
0.08
0.83
0.12
0.50
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (17)
0.35
0.41
0.38
0.38
0.33
0.44
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Spezia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spezia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spezia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spezia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Spezia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.03
0.40
1.07
0.40
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
1.17
0.50
1.25
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.35
1.00
0.17
1.00
0.45
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Brescia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brescia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.83
0.44
0.75
0.64
0.93
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.83
0.38
1.00
0.75
0.50
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.88
0.50
0.50
0.56
1.22
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Spezia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spezia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spezia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spezia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Spezia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Giuseppe Di Serio30%
Arkadiusz Reca29%
Daniele Verde17%
Petko Hristov16%
Luca Moro12%
Iva Gelashvili11%
Francesco Pio Esposito8%
Filip Jagiełło8%
Rachid Kouda8%
Lukas Mühl7%
Nicolò Bertola6%
Luca Vignali6%
Aleš Matějů6%
Mirko Antonucci5%
Salvatore Elia3%
Salvatore Esposito3%
Jeroen Zoet0%
Albin Ekdal0%
Szymon Żurkowski0%
Kelvin Amian0%
Ádám Nagy0%
Diego Falcinelli0%
Filippo Bandinelli0%
Bartłomiej Drągowski0%
Dimitris Nikolaou0%
Francesco Cassata0%
João Moutinho0%
Raimonds Krollis0%
Pietro Calzolari0%
Tio Cipot0%
Gregorio Tanco0%
Niccolò Pietra0%
Pietro Candelari0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Pietro Candelari50%
Niccolò Pietra40%
Francesco Cassata35%
Szymon Żurkowski31%
Rachid Kouda31%
Lukas Mühl29%
Dimitris Nikolaou26%
Nicolò Bertola25%
Luca Vignali24%
Aleš Matějů24%
Albin Ekdal22%
Iva Gelashvili22%
Salvatore Esposito22%
Kelvin Amian21%
Giuseppe Di Serio20%
Gregorio Tanco20%
Ádám Nagy19%
Diego Falcinelli19%
Filippo Bandinelli18%
Petko Hristov16%
Mirko Antonucci16%
Salvatore Elia16%
Bartłomiej Drągowski15%
Arkadiusz Reca14%
Luca Moro12%
Francesco Pio Esposito11%
Daniele Verde10%
Jeroen Zoet0%
Filip Jagiełło0%
João Moutinho0%
Raimonds Krollis0%
Pietro Calzolari0%
Tio Cipot0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Salvatore Esposito14%
Diego Falcinelli12%
Giuseppe Di Serio10%
Filip Jagiełło8%
Rachid Kouda8%
Szymon Żurkowski6%
Salvatore Elia6%
Luca Vignali6%
Filippo Bandinelli3%
Dimitris Nikolaou3%
Jeroen Zoet0%
Albin Ekdal0%
Arkadiusz Reca0%
Kelvin Amian0%
Lukas Mühl0%
Ádám Nagy0%
Bartłomiej Drągowski0%
Francesco Cassata0%
Aleš Matějů0%
Petko Hristov0%
Luca Moro0%
Mirko Antonucci0%
Daniele Verde0%
João Moutinho0%
Raimonds Krollis0%
Pietro Calzolari0%
Iva Gelashvili0%
Tio Cipot0%
Gregorio Tanco0%
Nicolò Bertola0%
Niccolò Pietra0%
Francesco Pio Esposito0%
Pietro Candelari0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Daniele Verde28%
Rachid Kouda15%
Szymon Żurkowski12%
Diego Falcinelli12%
Francesco Pio Esposito11%
Giuseppe Di Serio10%
Luca Vignali6%
Petko Hristov5%
Mirko Antonucci5%
Luca Moro4%
Salvatore Esposito3%
Jeroen Zoet0%
Albin Ekdal0%
Arkadiusz Reca0%
Kelvin Amian0%
Lukas Mühl0%
Ádám Nagy0%
Filippo Bandinelli0%
Bartłomiej Drągowski0%
Dimitris Nikolaou0%
Francesco Cassata0%
Aleš Matějů0%
Salvatore Elia0%
Filip Jagiełło0%
João Moutinho0%
Raimonds Krollis0%
Pietro Calzolari0%
Iva Gelashvili0%
Tio Cipot0%
Gregorio Tanco0%
Nicolò Bertola0%
Niccolò Pietra0%
Pietro Candelari0%
Brescia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gennaro Borrelli29%
Gabriele Moncini26%
Birkir Bjarnason13%
Flavio Bianchi10%
Dimitri Bisoli9%
Nicolas Galazzi9%
Alexander Jallow8%
Davide Adorni4%
Fabrizio Paghera4%
Massimo Bertagnoli4%
Andrea Papetti3%
Lorenzo Dickmann3%
Mohamed Fares0%
Lorenzo Andrenacci0%
Andrea Cistana0%
Luca Lezzerini0%
Tom Van De Looi0%
Massimiliano Mangraviti0%
Michele Avella0%
Matthieu Huard0%
Giacomo Olzer0%
Michele Besaggio0%
Riccardo Fogliata0%
Matteo Ferro0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Andrea Cistana39%
Fabrizio Paghera36%
Mohamed Fares31%
Lorenzo Dickmann22%
Giacomo Olzer21%
Dimitri Bisoli21%
Tom Van De Looi19%
Massimo Bertagnoli18%
Nicolas Galazzi18%
Davide Adorni16%
Alexander Jallow16%
Matthieu Huard16%
Gennaro Borrelli14%
Michele Besaggio14%
Lorenzo Andrenacci11%
Matteo Ferro10%
Andrea Papetti9%
Gabriele Moncini9%
Birkir Bjarnason8%
Riccardo Fogliata8%
Luca Lezzerini4%
Massimiliano Mangraviti4%
Flavio Bianchi3%
Michele Avella0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nicolas Galazzi15%
Dimitri Bisoli12%
Lorenzo Dickmann8%
Riccardo Fogliata8%
Gennaro Borrelli7%
Andrea Papetti6%
Gabriele Moncini6%
Andrea Cistana4%
Fabrizio Paghera4%
Alexander Jallow4%
Massimiliano Mangraviti4%
Flavio Bianchi3%
Birkir Bjarnason0%
Davide Adorni0%
Mohamed Fares0%
Lorenzo Andrenacci0%
Luca Lezzerini0%
Tom Van De Looi0%
Massimo Bertagnoli0%
Michele Avella0%
Matthieu Huard0%
Giacomo Olzer0%
Michele Besaggio0%
Matteo Ferro0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gabriele Moncini23%
Flavio Bianchi13%
Gennaro Borrelli11%
Giacomo Olzer7%
Lorenzo Dickmann5%
Birkir Bjarnason5%
Dimitri Bisoli3%
Davide Adorni0%
Mohamed Fares0%
Lorenzo Andrenacci0%
Andrea Cistana0%
Fabrizio Paghera0%
Luca Lezzerini0%
Tom Van De Looi0%
Alexander Jallow0%
Massimiliano Mangraviti0%
Massimo Bertagnoli0%
Michele Avella0%
Matthieu Huard0%
Andrea Papetti0%
Nicolas Galazzi0%
Michele Besaggio0%
Riccardo Fogliata0%
Matteo Ferro0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie B 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Venezia
Parma
Como
Cremonese
Catanzaro
Palermo
Sampdoria
Cosenza
Sudtirol
Modena
Reggiana
Pisa
Cittadella
Bari
Ternana
Ascoli
FeralpiSalo
Lecco