This match between Sport Academy Kairat and Akademiya Ontustik in the Kazakhstan: 1. Division is expected to be high-scoring, with an average of 4 goals expected according to the model. The most likely total number of goals is 6 or more, with a probability of 21%. One possible scoreline is 2-1, with a probability of 8.7%.
Sport Academy Kairat, at home, have scored an average of 3.4 goals and conceded 1.3 goals against weaker opponents. Akademiya Ontustik, away, have scored 2 goals and conceded 1.25 goals against stronger opponents.
The model's selection is a home win, with a probability of 57%. The model also suggests Over 1.5, with a probability of 91.2%, Over 2.5, with a probability of 75.4%, and BTTS Yes, with a probability of 72%. The home win percentage is 57%, the draw percentage is 20%, and the away win percentage is 23%.
Results analysis
The draw between Sport Academy Kairat and Akademiya Ontustik extends the recent run of stalemates between these two teams, with both matches ending 0-0. The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect, given the pre-match probability of 57%. In contrast, the actual result was a draw, which is consistent with the pre-match probability of 20%. The model's call on Home win was wrong. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals also missed, with a probability of 91.2%, while the selection of Over 2.5 goals, with a probability of 75.4%, also missed. The selection of BTTS Yes, with a probability of 72%, also failed to materialize.
ðŊ 1. Model Analysis
Sport Academy Kairat winâ Miss
57.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâ Hit
20.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik winâ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
â― 2. Goal Analysis
Sport Academy Kairat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
1.50
3.00
1.40
1.67
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
2.19
1.57
2.73
1.36
1.60
1.80
vs Weaker (9)
2.67
1.33
3.75
1.50
1.80
1.20
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Akademiya Ontustik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Akademiya Ontustik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.73
2.00
1.93
1.67
1.53
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
2.33
1.00
2.50
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.83
1.71
2.17
1.92
1.50
1.50
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.33
2.00
1.00
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Sport Academy Kairat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
91.2%
Under 1.5
8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
75.4%
Under 2.5
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
55.7%
Under 3.5
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
72.0%
No
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.7%
1-1
7.8%
3-1
7.0%
2-2
6.6%
2-0
5.7%
1-2
5.4%
3-2
5.3%
3-0
4.6%
Sport Academy Kairat goals ↓
Akademiya Ontustik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.6%
2.2%
2.2%
1.1%
0.4%
1
4.0%
7.8%
5.4%
2.7%
1.0%
2
5.7%
8.7%
6.6%
3.3%
1.3%
3
4.6%
7.0%
5.3%
2.7%
1.0%
4
2.8%
4.3%
3.2%
1.6%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sport Academy Kairat goals (down), columns = Akademiya Ontustik goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Akademiya Ontustik
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.00
Taraz
1.71
Ekibastuz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Jaiyq
1.14
Aktobe Jas
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Astana II
0.86
Arys
0.71
Tobol 2
0.43
Sport Academy Kairat is 0.29 points worse than Akademiya Ontustik in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 2.29).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.33
Sport Academy Kairat
2.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.83
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.57
Aktobe Jas
1.29
Taraz
1.14
Khan Tengri
1.14
Jaiyq
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Arys
0.71
Astana II
0.71
Sport Academy Kairat is 0.43 goals better than Akademiya Ontustik in terms of goals scored per game (2.43 vs 2.00).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.33
Sport Academy Kairat
0.43
Taraz
0.86
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Akademiya Ontustik
1.29
Khan Tengri
1.43
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.71
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.00
Tobol 2
2.43
Astana II
2.57
Aktobe Jas
3.00
Sport Academy Kairat is 0.86 goals better than Akademiya Ontustik in terms of goals conceded per game (0.43 vs 1.29).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sport Academy Kairat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.63
1.20
0.60
1.00
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.05
0.71
1.18
0.64
0.90
0.80
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.44
1.25
0.50
1.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Akademiya Ontustik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Akademiya Ontustik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.70
0.87
0.87
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.75
1.00
0.92
0.42
0.58
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Sport Academy Kairat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sport Academy Kairat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.87
1.80
0.80
0.67
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.14
0.86
1.55
0.73
0.70
1.00
vs Weaker (9)
1.44
0.89
2.50
1.00
0.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Akademiya Ontustik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Akademiya Ontustik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.03
1.13
1.07
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.12
0.96
1.17
1.00
1.08
0.92
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.33
2.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Sport Academy Kairat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Over 2.5
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
BTTS Yes
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shakhter Karagandy
Turan Turkistan
Taraz
Kaspij Aktau 2
Ekibastuz
Jaiyq
Khan Tengri
Aktobe Jas
Yelimay Semey 2
Astana II
Arys
Tobol 2