Sport Academy Kairat are the clear favourites, with the model giving a 69 % chance of a home win and a 12 % chance for Arys to come away victorious, while a draw sits at 18 %. The predicted outcome is a home win, reflecting Kairat’s strong home form and the opponent’s weaker venue performance. The model expects an average of 3.5 goals, with the most likely total being 3 goals at 22 %. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0, carrying a 9.6 % probability. Kairat’s home form shows they score 2.6 goals and concede 1.4 against weaker teams, whereas Arys, playing away against stronger sides, averages only 1.0 goal scored and 4.25 conceded. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.1 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.9 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.2 %, Under 7.5 at 97.4 %, Home +2 handicap at 95.6 %, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 94.3 %, Under 6.5 at 93.7 %, and Away under 1.5 2H goals at 93.5 %. All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on, as Sport Academy Kairat secured a 1-0 home win, extending their two-game winning streak. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 69% probability and the result matched the model’s call. The most likely scoreline of 2-0 or 2-1 was not reached, but the 1-0 result still fell within the model’s expected range. Every suggested selection performed as predicted: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.2%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.8%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.2%, Under 7.5 at 97.4%, Home +2 handicap at 95.6%, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 94.8%, Under 6.5 at 93.7% and Away under 1.5 2H goals at 92.1%. The model’s comprehensive forecast delivered a clean sweep of hits.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sport Academy Kairat win✓ Hit
69.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
18.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arys win✗ Miss
12.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sport Academy Kairat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.40
1.37
2.87
1.33
1.93
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
2.18
1.45
2.55
1.27
1.82
1.64
vs Weaker (8)
3.00
1.12
3.75
1.50
2.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Arys) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arys
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
2.47
1.14
1.93
0.75
2.94
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
3.57
1.00
2.67
1.00
4.25
vs Similar (22)
0.82
2.23
1.00
1.90
0.67
2.50
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Sport Academy Kairat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
86.9%
Under 1.5
13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
67.5%
Under 2.5
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.8%
Under 3.5
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.4%
No
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.6%
2-1
9.5%
1-1
8.4%
3-0
7.9%
3-1
7.8%
1-0 ✓
6.9%
4-0
4.9%
4-1
4.9%
Sport Academy Kairat goals ↓
Arys goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
2.3%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
1
6.9%
8.4%
3.8%
1.2%
0.3%
2
9.6%
9.5%
4.7%
1.5%
0.4%
3
7.9%
7.8%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
4
4.9%
4.9%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sport Academy Kairat goals (down), columns = Arys goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Sport Academy Kairat is 1.12 points better than Arys in terms of average points per game (2.12 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Sport Academy Kairat is 1.25 goals better than Arys in terms of goals scored per game (2.25 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Sport Academy Kairat is 1.25 goals better than Arys in terms of goals conceded per game (0.38 vs 1.62).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sport Academy Kairat or Draw✓ Hit
87.7%
Avg Implied -
69%
18%
12%
covers Sport Academy Kairat + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat or Arys✓ Hit
81.6%
Avg Implied -
69%
18%
12%
covers Sport Academy Kairat + Arys
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Arys✗ Miss
30.7%
Avg Implied -
69%
18%
12%
covers Draw + Arys
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
91.7%
Under
8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
71.0%
Under
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
45.3%
Under
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
23.9%
Under
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
62.9%
Under
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
26.1%
Under
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sport Academy Kairat, so a minus line means Sport Academy Kairat give that many goals of a start and Arys receive them. At -1, Sport Academy Kairat must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sport Academy Kairat win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sport Academy Kairat)Actual: Arys
Sport Academy Kairat -2
27.8%
Draw -2
20.2%
Arys +2
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sport Academy Kairat)Actual: Draw
Sport Academy Kairat -1
48.1%
Draw -1
21.2%
Arys +1
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sport Academy Kairat)Actual: Sport Academy Kairat
Sport Academy Kairat +1
87.7%
Draw +1
8.0%
Arys -1
4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sport Academy Kairat)Actual: Sport Academy Kairat
Sport Academy Kairat +2
95.6%
Draw +2
3.2%
Arys -2
1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sport Academy Kairat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.57
1.07
0.53
1.13
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.00
0.64
1.00
0.55
1.00
0.73
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
0.38
1.25
0.50
1.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Arys) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arys
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.00
0.50
0.79
0.25
1.19
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
1.57
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.75
vs Similar (22)
0.36
0.86
0.40
0.70
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Sport Academy Kairat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.2%
Under 0.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
44.2%
Under 1.5
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.7%
Under 2.5
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
74.5%
Under
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
34.4%
Under
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
29.7%
Under
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sport Academy Kairat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.80
1.80
0.80
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.18
0.82
1.55
0.73
0.82
0.91
vs Weaker (8)
1.62
0.75
2.50
1.00
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Arys) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arys
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.47
0.64
1.14
0.50
1.75
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
2.00
0.67
1.33
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (22)
0.45
1.36
0.60
1.20
0.33
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Sport Academy Kairat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
85.8%
Under 0.5
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
54.6%
Under 1.5
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
34.2%
Under 2.5
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
79.3%
Under
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
44.7%
Under
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
21.2%
Under
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
31.9%
Under
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 2H goals
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 2H goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 HT goals
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 0.5 HT goals
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →