Sport Academy Kairat’s home form is a clear advantage, with a 78% chance of winning the match and a 14% draw probability. The model picks a home win as the most likely result, driven by Kairat’s 3.2 average goals scored and 1.2 conceded at home against weaker opposition, while Astana II’s away average of 0.33 scored and 3.33 conceded against stronger teams signals a defensive struggle. The expected total goals is 3.9, with the single most likely scoreline 2-0 at 9.1%. The match is expected to see 3 goals, with a 20% chance of that exact total. Suggested picks include “Away under 2.5 HT goals” at 99.2%, “Away under 2.5 2H goals” at 98.9%, “Away under 3.5 goals” at 98.6%, “Home +2 handicap” at 97.4%, “Away under 1.5 HT goals” at 95.7%, “Under 7.5” at 95.6%, “Home over 0.5 goals” at 94.8% and “Away under 2.5 goals” at 93.4%. The 8% chance of an Astana II win reflects their recent four-match losing streak and low away scoring.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sport Academy Kairat win
78.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
14.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Astana II win
8.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sport Academy Kairat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
1.33
2.47
1.33
2.00
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
2.05
1.55
2.10
1.40
2.00
1.70
vs Weaker (10)
2.60
0.90
3.20
1.20
2.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Astana II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Astana II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
2.73
1.47
2.27
1.00
3.20
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
2.60
1.67
2.00
0.50
3.50
vs Similar (25)
1.24
2.76
1.42
2.33
1.08
3.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Sport Academy Kairat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
90.4%
Under 1.5
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
74.3%
Under 2.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
54.2%
Under 3.5
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.5%
No
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.1%
3-0
9.0%
2-1
8.4%
3-1
8.2%
4-0
6.6%
1-1
6.2%
4-1
6.1%
1-0
5.6%
Sport Academy Kairat goals ↓
Astana II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.6%
1.3%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
1
5.6%
6.2%
2.6%
0.8%
0.2%
2
9.1%
8.4%
3.8%
1.2%
0.3%
3
9.0%
8.2%
3.8%
1.2%
0.3%
4
6.6%
6.1%
2.8%
0.9%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sport Academy Kairat goals (down), columns = Astana II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Sport Academy Kairat is 1.00 points better than Astana II in terms of average points per game (2.12 vs 1.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Sport Academy Kairat is 1.12 goals better than Astana II in terms of goals scored per game (2.25 vs 1.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Sport Academy Kairat is 1.88 goals better than Astana II in terms of goals conceded per game (0.38 vs 2.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sport Academy Kairat or Draw
92.0%
Avg Implied -
78%
14%
8%
covers Sport Academy Kairat + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat or Astana II
86.0%
Avg Implied -
78%
14%
8%
covers Sport Academy Kairat + Astana II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Astana II
22.0%
Avg Implied -
78%
14%
8%
covers Draw + Astana II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 0.5
Over
94.8%
Under
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 1.5
Over
79.4%
Under
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 2.5
Over
56.7%
Under
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 3.5
Over
34.3%
Under
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 0.5
Over
60.0%
Under
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 1.5
Over
23.4%
Under
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 2.5
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 3.5
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sport Academy Kairat, so a minus line means Sport Academy Kairat give that many goals of a start and Astana II receive them. At -1, Sport Academy Kairat must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sport Academy Kairat win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sport Academy Kairat)
Sport Academy Kairat -2
38.7%
Draw -2
20.6%
Astana II +2
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sport Academy Kairat)
Sport Academy Kairat -1
59.3%
Draw -1
18.6%
Astana II +1
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sport Academy Kairat)
Sport Academy Kairat +1
92.0%
Draw +1
5.4%
Astana II -1
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sport Academy Kairat)
Sport Academy Kairat +2
97.4%
Draw +2
2.0%
Astana II -2
0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sport Academy Kairat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.53
0.93
0.53
1.20
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.95
0.65
0.80
0.60
1.10
0.70
vs Weaker (10)
1.30
0.30
1.20
0.40
1.40
0.20
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Astana II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Astana II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.03
1.00
1.00
0.60
1.07
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
0.80
1.67
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.76
1.08
0.83
1.00
0.69
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Sport Academy Kairat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.9%
Under 0.5
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
50.6%
Under 1.5
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
26.3%
Under 2.5
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 0.5 HT
Over
75.1%
Under
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 1.5 HT
Over
47.2%
Under
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 2.5 HT
Over
19.7%
Under
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
24.7%
Under
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sport Academy Kairat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.80
1.53
0.80
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.10
0.90
1.30
0.80
0.90
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
1.30
0.60
2.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Astana II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Astana II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.70
0.47
1.27
0.40
2.13
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.80
0.00
1.00
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (25)
0.48
1.68
0.58
1.33
0.38
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Sport Academy Kairat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
87.6%
Under 0.5
12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.5%
Under 1.5
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.1%
Under 2.5
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 0.5 2H
Over
80.2%
Under
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 1.5 2H
Over
48.9%
Under
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 2.5 2H
Over
28.2%
Under
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
33.3%
Under
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 2H goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 0.5 HT goals
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 HT goals
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →