Sporting CP B are set to defend a tight, low-scoring game, with the model projecting a 34 % chance of a home win, a 33 % chance of a draw and a 33 % chance of an away victory. The most likely result is a 1-1 draw, with a 14.9 % probability. The expected total goals is 2.0, the model’s favourite total being 2 goals at 28 %. Sporting CP B have been scoring 1.64 goals and conceding 1.09 at home against weaker opposition, while Farense are averaging 1.33 goals and conceding 1.67 away against stronger teams. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.9 %), Under 6.5 (99.5 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.7 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.2 %), Under 5.5 (98.2 % with a 2 % edge), Away under 3.5 goals (98.1 % with a 1 % edge), Home under 3.5 goals (97.9 % with a 2 % edge) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.7 %). Sporting CP B are coming off a defeat, while Farense are on a two-game winning run.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on as Sporting CP B secured a 2-1 home win, extending their recent run of victories. The pre-match favourite was a home win, assigned a 35% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The final score matched the most likely outcome of 2-1, with the match ending in a home triumph. Every suggested selection hit: Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.1%), Under 5.5 (98.1%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.6%), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.6%). The model’s comprehensive coverage was flawless, confirming the predicted outcome and all ancillary picks.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sporting CP B win✓ Hit
35.4%
Avg Implied 35.6% · @ 2.58
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.71
1xBet
2.65
Marathonbet
2.65
Dafabet
2.65
Superbet
2.60
Draw✗ Miss
32.9%
Avg Implied 30.2% · @ 3.04
Edge
+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.25
Superbet
3.15
Pinnacle
3.13
BetVictor
3.10
Betano
3.10
Farense win✗ Miss
31.6%
Avg Implied 34.2% · @ 2.68
Edge
-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
2.90
Pinnacle
2.79
Betano
2.75
Dafabet
2.75
10Bet
2.70
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sporting CP B
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.10
1.33
1.20
0.80
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.80
1.50
1.00
1.40
0.60
1.60
vs Weaker (20)
1.20
0.90
1.50
1.10
0.90
0.70
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Farense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Farense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.00
1.12
0.94
0.92
1.08
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.04
1.13
1.00
1.00
1.09
1.27
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.33
1.75
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting CP B) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
62.4%
@ 1.38-4.9%
Under 1.5
37.6%
@ 2.84+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.44
10Bet
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Under
Pinnacle
3.02
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
2.90
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
34.1%
@ 2.20-8.4%
Under 2.5
65.9%
@ 1.62+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.40
Pinnacle
2.25
Betano
2.22
Betfair
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.66
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Bet365
1.65
Betano
1.65
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.5%
@ 4.02-7.6%
Under 3.5
84.5%
@ 1.21+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Pinnacle
4.11
BetVictor
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.24
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
42.7%
@ 1.87-6.6%
No
57.3%
@ 1.82+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
2.00
Betfair
1.91
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.87
William Hil
1.85
No
1xBet
1.86
Superbet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
BetVictor
1.83
William Hil
1.83
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.9%@ 5.53+7.0%
0-0
14.0%@ 7.65+8.3%
1-0
12.2%@ 6.90+5.9%
0-1
11.3%@ 7.03+5.1%
2-0
7.3%@ 11.21+3.4%
2-1 ✓
7.2%@ 9.26+2.5%
1-2
6.7%@ 9.35+2.1%
0-2
6.3%@ 11.73+2.6%
Sporting CP B goals ↓
Farense goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
11%
6.3%
2.1%
0.5%
1
12%
15%
6.7%
2.2%
0.6%
2
7.3%
7.2%
3.6%
1.2%
0.3%
3
2.6%
2.6%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.7%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sporting CP B goals (down), columns = Farense goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Torreense
1.74
AVS
1.50
Vizela
1.50
FC Porto B
1.50
Leixoes
1.47
União de Leiria
1.47
Tondela
1.36
Feirense
1.35
Chaves
1.32
Benfica B
1.29
Felgueiras 1932
1.29
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.26
Sporting CP B
1.24
Farense
1.22
Penafiel
1.21
Portimonense
1.18
Academica
0.98
Amarante
0.82
Sporting CP B is 0.01 points better than Farense in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
União de Leiria
1.53
Leixoes
1.35
Torreense
1.35
AVS
1.30
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.29
Benfica B
1.26
Chaves
1.24
Sporting CP B
1.21
FC Porto B
1.21
Tondela
1.17
Vizela
1.15
Portimonense
1.15
Penafiel
1.09
Feirense
1.09
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Farense
0.89
Academica
0.85
Amarante
0.71
Sporting CP B is 0.32 goals better than Farense in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 0.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Torreense
0.97
Sporting CP B
1.00
Farense
1.03
AVS
1.05
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Penafiel
1.15
Tondela
1.16
Vizela
1.18
Feirense
1.18
Chaves
1.18
FC Porto B
1.24
Benfica B
1.29
União de Leiria
1.35
Portimonense
1.44
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.53
Academica
1.61
Leixoes
1.62
Amarante
1.92
Sporting CP B is 0.03 goals better than Farense in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chaves
55%
Sporting CP B
54%
Benfica B
54%
Vizela
54%
Felgueiras 1932
54%
União de Leiria
51%
Leixoes
50%
Farense
49%
Penafiel
49%
Portimonense
48%
Lusitânia Lourosa
48%
FC Porto B
47%
Torreense
46%
Feirense
42%
Sporting CP B is 5.6 percentage points better than Farense in terms of average possession (54% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sporting CP B
For 3.8 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 3.2 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 11.9 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Farense
For 5.4 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.4 · Against 14.4 · Total 30.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sporting CP B
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (37)
8.3
9.0
7.8
4.5
4.8
4.2
25.0
25.5
24.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
9.0
-
9.0
5.2
5.5
4.8
20.0
-
20.0
vs Weaker (25)
8.2
9.0
7.6
4.1
4.4
3.8
25.6
25.5
25.6
% over line
40%
75%
17%
51%
56%
47%
80%
100%
67%
% under line
60%
25%
83%
49%
44%
53%
20%
0%
33%
This opponent (Farense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Farense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.5
9.7
5.3
5.8
4.8
31.0
31.9
29.7
vs Stronger (3)
16.0
14.5
19.0
8.3
8.5
8.0
30.7
35.0
22.0
vs Similar (38)
9.7
11.1
7.6
5.3
5.8
4.8
32.2
32.3
32.0
vs Weaker (9)
9.5
8.0
11.0
4.2
4.8
3.5
24.5
23.0
26.0
% over line
53%
50%
57%
76%
85%
67%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
47%
50%
43%
24%
15%
33%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Sporting CP B) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Penafiel
11.5
Portimonense
11.1
Torreense
11.0
Farense
10.8
Lusitânia Lourosa
10.4
FC Porto B
10.3
Felgueiras 1932
10.1
Vizela
9.9
União de Leiria
9.8
Benfica B
9.6
Tondela
9.6
AVS
9.5
Leixoes
9.0
Feirense
9.0
Chaves
8.8
Sporting CP B
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Benfica B
6.7
Feirense
6.6
Vizela
6.3
Leixoes
6.1
FC Porto B
6.0
Lusitânia Lourosa
5.9
Chaves
5.9
Sporting CP B
5.9
Felgueiras 1932
5.8
União de Leiria
5.6
Farense
5.6
Portimonense
5.4
Penafiel
5.3
Torreense
5.2
Tondela
5.2
AVS
5.1
Academica
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Farense
31.3
Lusitânia Lourosa
30.1
Leixoes
26.4
Tondela
25.7
AVS
25.7
Sporting CP B
25.0
União de Leiria
24.1
Felgueiras 1932
23.5
FC Porto B
21.9
Portimonense
21.8
Penafiel
21.8
Benfica B
21.2
Torreense
21.1
Chaves
20.9
Vizela
20.8
Feirense
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
46.0%
@ 1.93-2.2%
Under 9.5
54.0%
@ 1.79+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.73
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
80.5%
Under 3.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
81.6%
Under 21.5
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sporting CP B or Draw✓ Hit
68.4%
Avg Implied 65.6% · @ 1.42
Edge
+2.8%
35%
33%
32%
covers Sporting CP B + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.47
William Hil
1.44
10Bet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Sporting CP B or Farense✓ Hit
67.1%
Avg Implied 70.1% · @ 1.32
Edge
-3.0%
35%
33%
32%
covers Sporting CP B + Farense
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.40
William Hil
1.36
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Draw or Farense✗ Miss
64.6%
Avg Implied 64.3% · @ 1.44
Edge
+0.2%
35%
33%
32%
covers Draw + Farense
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.52
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.46
Betfair
1.44
888Sport
1.44
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sporting CP B over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
65.7%
@ 1.34-3.5%
Under
34.3%
@ 3.00+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.34
1xBet
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.14
Betfair
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Sporting CP B over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
29.0%
@ 2.66-5.9%
Under
71.0%
@ 1.42+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.84
Betfair
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Marathonbet
2.69
10Bet
2.65
Under
1xBet
1.46
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.43
Sporting CP B over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.3%
@ 6.47-5.0%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.08+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.85
BetVictor
6.50
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
BetVictor
1.08
Betfair
1.08
Sporting CP B over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 16.69-3.4%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.02+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
21.00
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Farense over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
63.0%
@ 1.36-5.0%
Under
37.0%
@ 2.89+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.40
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.03
Bet365
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
Superbet
2.92
Farense over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
26.2%
@ 2.78-7.2%
Under
73.8%
@ 1.40+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
3.10
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.87
10Bet
2.80
Betano
2.80
Under
1xBet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.40
Farense over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.9%
@ 7.04-5.3%
Under
92.1%
@ 1.07+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
9.00
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
Farense over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 21.05-2.7%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
29.00
1xBet
29.00
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sporting CP B, so a minus line means Sporting CP B give that many goals of a start and Farense receive them. At -1, Sporting CP B must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sporting CP B win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sporting CP B)Actual: Farense
Sporting CP B -2
4.4%
@ 13.00-2.5%
Draw -2
10.2%
@ 7.50-1.9%
Farense +2
85.4%
@ 1.12+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
12.00
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
7.00
Away
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Handicap -1 (Sporting CP B)Actual: Draw
Sporting CP B -1
14.6%
@ 5.23-2.2%
Draw -1
20.8%
@ 4.00-1.2%
Farense +1
64.6%
@ 1.44+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
5.70
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.15
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
Superbet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Away
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Handicap +1 (Sporting CP B)Actual: Sporting CP B
Sporting CP B +1
68.4%
@ 1.42+6.4%
Draw +1
19.3%
@ 4.05-2.4%
Farense -1
12.3%
@ 5.40-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Unibet
1.34
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
Superbet
4.15
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
3.45
Away
10Bet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.70
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.35
Unibet
4.70
Handicap +2 (Sporting CP B)Actual: Sporting CP B
Sporting CP B +2
87.7%
@ 1.12+6.8%
Draw +2
8.8%
@ 7.60-3.1%
Farense -2
3.5%
@ 12.50-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Superbet
7.20
Away
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
12.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sporting CP B
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.67
0.53
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.80
0.60
0.60
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.55
0.50
0.70
0.50
0.40
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Farense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Farense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.43
0.47
0.35
0.23
0.54
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.39
0.48
0.50
0.33
0.27
0.64
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
0.17
0.50
0.25
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting CP B) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.1%
@ 1.45+3.3%
Under 0.5
32.9%
@ 2.56-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
Pinnacle
1.49
BetVictor
1.46
1xBet
1.45
Superbet
1.45
Under
10Bet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.62
Bet365
2.62
William Hil
2.62
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
28.7%
@ 3.13-1.1%
Under 1.5
71.3%
@ 1.32+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.28
Bet365
3.25
Betano
3.25
Betfair
3.20
1xBet
3.16
Under
10Bet
1.36
BetVictor
1.34
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.33
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.6%
@ 8.31-1.6%
Under 2.5
90.4%
@ 1.05+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
William Hil
8.50
Betfair
8.50
1xBet
8.50
BetVictor
8.50
Under
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
William Hil
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sporting CP B over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
42.6%
@ 2.22+0.7%
Under
57.4%
@ 1.60-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.31
Betano
2.27
Marathonbet
2.24
Superbet
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Under
10Bet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.61
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Superbet
1.60
Sporting CP B over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.8%
@ 7.48-3.6%
Under
91.2%
@ 1.06+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.50
1xBet
8.00
Superbet
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
Sporting CP B over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 26.00-1.6%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
26.00
10Bet
26.00
Under
10Bet
1.01
Farense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
40.5%
@ 2.26-0.5%
Under
59.5%
@ 1.57+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.35
Pinnacle
2.34
1xBet
2.25
Superbet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.24
Under
10Bet
1.62
Superbet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.58
Marathonbet
1.56
Betano
1.55
Farense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.2%
@ 7.70-2.8%
Under
90.8%
@ 1.06+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.50
1xBet
8.50
Superbet
7.30
Betano
7.20
10Bet
7.00
Under
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Farense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 27.00-98.8%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
27.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sporting CP B
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.40
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.70
0.40
0.80
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (20)
0.65
0.40
0.80
0.60
0.50
0.20
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Farense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Farense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.57
0.65
0.59
0.69
0.54
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.65
0.50
0.67
0.82
0.64
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.17
1.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting CP B) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.4%
@ 1.28+3.3%
Under 0.5
24.6%
@ 3.32-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Under
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.40
1xBet
3.36
Marathonbet
3.36
Superbet
3.30
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
38.7%
@ 2.33-1.3%
Under 1.5
61.3%
@ 1.55+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.40
Betano
2.35
1xBet
2.33
Marathonbet
2.33
Superbet
2.32
Under
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.57
William Hil
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.1%
@ 5.24-3.6%
Under 2.5
85.9%
@ 1.13+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.35
Marathonbet
5.35
Superbet
5.15
Betano
5.10
Under
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sporting CP B over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
48.9%
@ 1.87-0.6%
Under
51.1%
@ 1.83+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.90
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Under
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
10Bet
1.80
Sporting CP B over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.2%
@ 5.46-3.7%
Under
86.8%
@ 1.12+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.75
1xBet
5.75
10Bet
5.50
Superbet
5.30
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Sporting CP B over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 15.58-3.7%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.02+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Farense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
46.8%
@ 1.89-2.2%
Under
53.2%
@ 1.81+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.95
Betano
1.90
Superbet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Betano
1.83
Superbet
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Farense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.6%
@ 5.60-3.9%
Under
87.4%
@ 1.11+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.80
1xBet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Superbet
5.45
Betano
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Farense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 16.75-3.1%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
98.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
94.1%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
888Sport
1.05
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.1%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.2%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.8%
1.06
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.7%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
BetVictor
1.08
Betfair
1.08
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
William Hil
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.7%
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.4%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.8%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.9%
1.13
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
85.4%
1.12
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.10
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
84.5%
1.21
Pinnacle
1.24
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.7%
1.28
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
-
+4.8%
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.4%
1.28
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
73.8%
1.40
1xBet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.40
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.3%
1.32
10Bet
1.36
BetVictor
1.34
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.33
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
71.0%
1.42
1xBet
1.46
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.43
+5.9%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sporting CP B · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paulo Cardoso33%
Lucas Anjos25%
Salvador Blopa20%
Rafael Nel17%
Bruno Ramos14%
Flavio Goncalves14%
Samuel Justo10%
Mateo Tanlongo0%
Rômulo0%
Diego Callai0%
João Muniz0%
Manuel Mendonça0%
Mauro Couto0%
Zaid Bafdili0%
Rayan Lucas0%
David Moreira0%
Gabriel Silva0%
Eduardo Felicíssimo0%
José Silva0%
Rodrigo Dias0%
Kauã Oliveira0%
Daniel Costa0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Salvador Blopa40%
Kauã Oliveira33%
Bruno Ramos29%
Flavio Goncalves29%
Mateo Tanlongo25%
Rafael Nel17%
João Muniz14%
Gabriel Silva14%
Diego Callai12%
Rodrigo Dias11%
Paulo Cardoso11%
Samuel Justo10%
Manuel Mendonça10%
Mauro Couto10%
David Moreira10%
Rômulo0%
Zaid Bafdili0%
Rayan Lucas0%
Lucas Anjos0%
Eduardo Felicíssimo0%
José Silva0%
Daniel Costa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Zaid Bafdili40%
José Silva33%
Mauro Couto20%
Rafael Nel17%
Flavio Goncalves14%
Rodrigo Dias11%
Paulo Cardoso11%
Manuel Mendonça10%
Mateo Tanlongo0%
Rômulo0%
Diego Callai0%
Samuel Justo0%
João Muniz0%
Bruno Ramos0%
Rayan Lucas0%
David Moreira0%
Lucas Anjos0%
Gabriel Silva0%
Eduardo Felicíssimo0%
Salvador Blopa0%
Kauã Oliveira0%
Daniel Costa0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rafael Nel50%
Samuel Justo20%
Lucas Anjos12%
Manuel Mendonça10%
Mateo Tanlongo0%
Rômulo0%
Diego Callai0%
João Muniz0%
Mauro Couto0%
Zaid Bafdili0%
Bruno Ramos0%
Rayan Lucas0%
David Moreira0%
Gabriel Silva0%
Eduardo Felicíssimo0%
José Silva0%
Salvador Blopa0%
Flavio Goncalves0%
Rodrigo Dias0%
Paulo Cardoso0%
Kauã Oliveira0%
Daniel Costa0%
Farense · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Claudio Falcão25%
Anthony Carter25%
Marco Matias14%
Derick Poloni14%
André Candeias12%
Diego Dorregaray0%
Rúben Fernandes0%
Alex Pinto0%
Rui Costa0%
Nikola Gjorgjev0%
Franco Romero0%
Jaime Pinto0%
Darío Poveda0%
Bruno Almeida0%
Yannick Semedo0%
Brian Araújo0%
Toni Herrero0%
Assane Ndiaye Dione0%
Fran Delgado0%
Balla Sangaré0%
Miguel Menino0%
Dário Miranda0%
Alysson Silva0%
Rafinha0%
Lucas D'Agrella0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Claudio Falcão75%
Alysson Silva67%
Franco Romero60%
Alex Pinto50%
André Candeias38%
Fran Delgado33%
Miguel Menino29%
Anthony Carter25%
Yannick Semedo25%
Brian Araújo25%
Rafinha25%
Lucas D'Agrella17%
Marco Matias14%
Jaime Pinto14%
Balla Sangaré12%
Rúben Fernandes11%
Diego Dorregaray0%
Rui Costa0%
Derick Poloni0%
Nikola Gjorgjev0%
Darío Poveda0%
Bruno Almeida0%
Toni Herrero0%
Assane Ndiaye Dione0%
Dário Miranda0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Toni Herrero20%
Derick Poloni14%
Bruno Almeida12%
Diego Dorregaray0%
Marco Matias0%
Claudio Falcão0%
Rúben Fernandes0%
Alex Pinto0%
Anthony Carter0%
Rui Costa0%
Nikola Gjorgjev0%
Franco Romero0%
Jaime Pinto0%
Darío Poveda0%
Yannick Semedo0%
Brian Araújo0%
Assane Ndiaye Dione0%
Fran Delgado0%
Balla Sangaré0%
Miguel Menino0%
Dário Miranda0%
André Candeias0%
Alysson Silva0%
Rafinha0%
Lucas D'Agrella0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Claudio Falcão38%
Marco Matias14%
Balla Sangaré12%
Diego Dorregaray0%
Rúben Fernandes0%
Alex Pinto0%
Anthony Carter0%
Rui Costa0%
Derick Poloni0%
Nikola Gjorgjev0%
Franco Romero0%
Jaime Pinto0%
Darío Poveda0%
Bruno Almeida0%
Yannick Semedo0%
Brian Araújo0%
Toni Herrero0%
Assane Ndiaye Dione0%
Fran Delgado0%
Miguel Menino0%
Dário Miranda0%
André Candeias0%
Alysson Silva0%
Rafinha0%
Lucas D'Agrella0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
TOR (32)
€19m
SCB (23)
€17m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
FAR (24)
€8m
AVS (20)
€7m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
LL (19)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
ACA (11)
€2m
AMA (6)
€1m
Sporting CP B's squad is €9m more valuable than Farense's (€17m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
TOR (12)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
SCB (9)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (10)
€3m
AVS (8)
€3m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
ACA (6)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
LL (6)
€1m
AMA (1)
€0m
Sporting CP B's attack is €2m more valuable than Farense's (€5m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
SCB (5)
€5m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
FAR (3)
€2m
AVS (2)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
LL (2)
€1m
AMA (3)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PEN (2)
€0m
ACA (1)
€0m
Sporting CP B's midfield is €3m more valuable than Farense's (€5m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (10)
€13m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
SCB (9)
€7m
TON (9)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (11)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
LL (11)
€3m
AVS (10)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
ACA (4)
€1m
AMA (2)
€0m
Sporting CP B's defence is €4m more valuable than Farense's (€7m vs €4m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
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Lusitânia Lourosa
Academica
Penafiel
Vizela
Benfica B
Portimonense
União de Leiria
Felgueiras 1932
Leixoes
AVS
Amarante
Tondela
FC Porto B
Torreense
Feirense
Chaves