PythiaFootballBETA
Sporting CP B are favourites to win against FC Porto B, with the match expected to be a closely contested affair. The home side has been on a two-game winning run, with their last win coming against Chaves in a 1-0 scoreline. However, they have struggled to score at home, averaging just 0.67 goals per game against similar opponents, while conceding 1.67 goals.
FC Porto B, on the other hand, have struggled to find form, coming off a defeat against Lusitânia Lourosa. They have averaged 1.4 goals scored and conceded away from home against similar opponents.
The model predicts a home win with a 44% probability, a draw with 27%, and an away win with 29%. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring with a 12.9% probability.
The model's selection for this match is the home win, with suggested picks including Over 3.5 cards (83.5%), Over 21.5 fouls (81.4%), and Over 1.5 (78.2%). Sporting CP B have a 44% chance of winning, a 27% chance of drawing, and a 29% chance of losing.
The upset of the day came as FC Porto B stunned Sporting CP B with a 0-1 away win, defying expectations. The home side's 2-game winning run came to an abrupt end, extending their recent struggles. The pre-match favourite, Sporting CP B, failed to deliver, with the model's selection of a home win proving incorrect. The model's call was wrong, as it had predicted a home win with a 44% probability.
In contrast, suggested picks Over 3.5 cards and Over 1.5 were correct and incorrect respectively, with the former hitting at 83.5% probability and the latter missing at 78.2%. The most likely total goals was 2, with a 25% probability, and the expected total goals was 2.8.
Sporting CP B| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.30 | 1.10 | 1.47 | 1.20 | 1.13 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 0.67 | 1.83 | 0.67 | 1.67 | 0.67 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (24) | 1.46 | 0.92 | 1.67 | 1.08 | 1.25 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
FC Porto B| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.20 | 0.93 | 1.33 | 1.60 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 1.60 | 1.40 | 1.80 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| vs Weaker (20) | 1.10 | 1.20 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 1.30 | 1.70 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
| FC Porto B goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 8.4% | 13% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.5% | 9.2% | 5.7% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Sporting CP BFC Porto BSporting CP B| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (32) | 8.3 | 9.0 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 25.0 | 25.5 | 24.7 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (8) | 9.0 | - | 9.0 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 20.0 | - | 20.0 |
| vs Weaker (24) | 8.2 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 25.6 | 25.5 | 25.6 |
| % over line | 40% | 75% | 17% | 56% | 56% | 56% | 80% | 100% | 67% |
| % under line | 60% | 25% | 83% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 20% | 0% | 33% |
FC Porto B| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.2 | 9.8 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 18.0 | 13.1 | 22.2 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (16) | 7.5 | 10.0 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 19.0 | 15.5 | 20.8 |
| vs Weaker (34) | 11.3 | 9.7 | 12.2 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 17.7 | 12.5 | 22.9 |
| % over line | 62% | 75% | 56% | 64% | 62% | 67% | 59% | 40% | 75% |
| % under line | 38% | 25% | 44% | 36% | 38% | 33% | 41% | 60% | 25% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 cards | 83.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 81.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 78.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/26 | A | 2-1 |
Sporting CP B| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 20/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 13/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 08/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 21/02/26 | A | 1-0 |
FC Porto B| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 20/04/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 13/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 16/03/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 08/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 28/02/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 23/02/26 | H | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Maritimo | 34 | 66 | 59% | 1.9 | 50 | 29 | +21 | 2.3 | 65% | 38% | 24% | 7.7 | 20% | 6.4 | 91% | 30.1 | 93% | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 52% |
| 2 |  Academico Viseu | 34 | 59 | 50% | 1.7 | 58 | 33 | +25 | 2.7 | 68% | 56% | 35% | 9.8 | 54% | 6.1 | 91% | 29.1 | 100% | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 3 |  Torreense | 34 | 59 | 53% | 1.7 | 46 | 33 | +13 | 2.3 | 59% | 44% | 21% | 10.2 | 38% | 5.4 | 82% | 23.1 | 62% | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 4 | FC Porto B | 34 | 51 | 44% | 1.5 | 41 | 42 | -1 | 2.4 | 68% | 50% | 21% | 9.6 | 55% | 6.3 | 82% | 29.4 | 100% | 57 | 19 | 10 | 27 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 47% |
| 5 |  Vizela | 34 | 51 | 41% | 1.5 | 39 | 40 | -1 | 2.3 | 65% | 41% | 21% | 9.1 | 33% | 6.6 | 88% | 29.9 | 78% | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 54% |
| 6 |  União de Leiria | 34 | 50 | 38% | 1.5 | 52 | 46 | +6 | 2.9 | 74% | 59% | 44% | 10.2 | 69% | 5.9 | 82% | 30.6 | 100% | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 51% |
| 7 |  Leixoes | 34 | 50 | 44% | 1.5 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 3.0 | 82% | 59% | 35% | 8.7 | 27% | 6.1 | 91% | 30.1 | 91% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 50% |
| 8 |  Feirense | 34 | 46 | 35% | 1.4 | 37 | 40 | -3 | 2.3 | 62% | 44% | 18% | 9.3 | 29% | 7.0 | 94% | 29.1 | 86% | 11 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 42% |
| 9 |  Chaves | 34 | 45 | 38% | 1.3 | 42 | 40 | +2 | 2.4 | 65% | 35% | 24% | 8.3 | 38% | 6.3 | 82% | 27.9 | 85% | 9 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 55% |
| 10 |  Benfica B | 34 | 44 | 32% | 1.3 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 2.6 | 79% | 44% | 15% | 9.6 | 50% | 6.9 | 91% | 31.8 | 92% | 76 | 15 | 8 | 53 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 54% |
| 11 |  Felgueiras 1932 | 34 | 44 | 32% | 1.3 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 2.1 | 62% | 32% | 18% | 10.2 | 56% | 5.9 | 79% | 29.4 | 89% | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 54% |
| 12 |  Farense | 36 | 44 | 31% | 1.2 | 32 | 37 | -5 | 1.9 | 61% | 31% | 8% | 9.7 | 44% | 5.9 | 86% | 31.0 | 100% | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 13 |  Lusitânia Lourosa | 34 | 43 | 32% | 1.3 | 44 | 52 | -8 | 2.8 | 76% | 59% | 32% | 10.4 | 54% | 5.9 | 85% | 30.1 | 100% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 14 | Sporting CP B | 34 | 42 | 38% | 1.2 | 41 | 34 | +7 | 2.2 | 53% | 44% | 18% | 8.3 | 40% | 6.0 | 70% | 25.0 | 80% | 76 | 37 | 18 | 21 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 54% |
| 15 |  Penafiel | 34 | 41 | 32% | 1.2 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 2.2 | 65% | 38% | 15% | 11.2 | 80% | 5.6 | 71% | 27.1 | 70% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 49% |
| 16 |  Portimonense | 34 | 40 | 32% | 1.2 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 2.6 | 68% | 41% | 24% | 10.6 | 78% | 5.7 | 88% | 32.9 | 100% | 10 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 48% |
| 17 |  Pacos Ferreira | 34 | 39 | 26% | 1.1 | 34 | 48 | -14 | 2.4 | 68% | 50% | 24% | 9.5 | 46% | 6.3 | 82% | 29.5 | 85% | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 46% |
| 18 |  Oliveirense | 34 | 34 | 24% | 1.0 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 2.4 | 65% | 44% | 24% | 9.2 | 55% | 5.2 | 61% | 29.3 | 91% | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 19 |  CF Os Belenenses | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | - |