CSKA Sofia II are the clear favourites, with a 48% chance of victory, a 28% chance of a draw and a 25% chance for Sportist Svoge to win. The model predicts an average of 2.6 goals, most likely a 2-goal total with a 26% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, occurring 13.3% of the time. Sportist Svoge, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 0.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded, while CSKA Sofia II, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. The suggested picks are Over 1.5 with a 74.8% probability (missed) and Under 3.5 with a 73.3% probability (hit). The match is poised for a tight contest, with CSKA Sofia II’s recent defeat and Sportist Svoge’s draw hinting at a cautious approach, but the odds favour a CSKA Sofia II win.
Results analysis
The match finished 0-1 in favour of CSKA Sofia II, confirming the model’s prediction that the away side would win. The model had given CSKA a 48% chance of victory, and the call was correct. The suggested picks were mixed: Over 1.5 goals, at 74.8%, missed as the game saw only one goal, while Under 3.5 goals, at 73.3%, hit. The final score matched the most likely 1-2 outcome, though the 1-1 draw was the top probability at 13.3%. Sportist Svoge, after a draw against Marek, could not capitalize on home advantage, whereas CSKA, coming off a defeat, finished strong with a clean win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sportist Svoge win✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II win✓ Hit
47.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sportist Svoge
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.43
0.80
1.47
0.80
1.40
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
2.25
0.86
1.57
0.60
3.20
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.89
0.75
1.38
0.90
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSKA Sofia II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.23
1.69
0.94
1.21
1.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.06
1.00
0.89
0.56
1.22
1.44
vs Weaker (12)
2.08
1.58
2.71
1.43
1.20
1.80
Clean sheet %
33% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sportist Svoge) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.8%
Under 1.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.5%
Under 2.5
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.7%
Under 3.5
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.8%
No
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
0-1 ✓
10.2%
1-2
9.4%
0-2
8.8%
0-0
8.5%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
6.4%
2-2
5.0%
Sportist Svoge goals ↓
CSKA Sofia II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
10%
8.8%
4.6%
1.8%
1
6.5%
13%
9.4%
4.9%
1.9%
2
4.1%
6.4%
5.0%
2.6%
1.0%
3
1.5%
2.3%
1.8%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sportist Svoge goals (down), columns = CSKA Sofia II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dunav Ruse
2.16
Yantra 2019
2.00
Fratria
1.97
Vihren
1.81
CSKA Sofia II
1.72
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.44
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.38
Marek
1.28
Ludogorets II
1.28
Hebar 1918
1.25
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.19
Spartak Pleven
1.09
Sportist Svoge
1.06
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.03
Sevlievo
1.00
FK Minyor Pernik
0.94
Belasitsa
0.59
Sportist Svoge is 0.66 points worse than CSKA Sofia II in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 1.72).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Fratria
1.91
Vihren
1.84
CSKA Sofia II
1.78
Dunav Ruse
1.66
Yantra 2019
1.41
Ludogorets II
1.28
Hebar 1918
1.28
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.22
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.19
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.19
Spartak Pleven
1.16
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.03
FK Minyor Pernik
1.00
Sevlievo
0.91
Sportist Svoge
0.88
Marek
0.84
Belasitsa
0.81
Sportist Svoge is 0.91 goals worse than CSKA Sofia II in terms of goals scored per game (0.88 vs 1.78).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dunav Ruse
0.50
Yantra 2019
0.75
Fratria
0.91
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Vihren
1.06
Marek
1.09
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.28
Ludogorets II
1.34
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.34
FK Minyor Pernik
1.41
Spartak Pleven
1.41
Sportist Svoge
1.50
Hebar 1918
1.59
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.62
Sevlievo
1.62
Belasitsa
1.94
Sportist Svoge is 0.50 goals worse than CSKA Sofia II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sportist Svoge
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.70
0.33
0.73
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
1.17
0.14
0.86
0.40
1.60
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.39
0.50
0.62
0.40
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSKA Sofia II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.69
0.56
0.64
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.61
0.33
0.56
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (12)
0.92
0.67
1.14
0.57
0.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
53% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sportist Svoge) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sportist Svoge over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sportist Svoge
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.73
0.47
0.73
0.40
0.73
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
1.08
0.71
0.71
0.20
1.60
vs Similar (18)
0.39
0.50
0.25
0.75
0.50
0.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSKA Sofia II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
1.00
0.38
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.39
0.56
0.00
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (12)
1.17
0.92
1.57
0.86
0.60
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sportist Svoge) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sportist Svoge over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DR (22)
€4m
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
VIH (18)
€2m
EVT (23)
€2m
C1B (19)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Sportist Svoge's squad is €1m less valuable than CSKA Sofia II's (€1m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
H1 (8)
€2m
DR (6)
€1m
VIH (9)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
Sportist Svoge and CSKA Sofia II have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DR (5)
€1m
FRA (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
VIH (3)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
H1 (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Sportist Svoge and CSKA Sofia II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DR (11)
€2m
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
H1 (9)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
VIH (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Sportist Svoge and CSKA Sofia II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →