The model favours an away win for Hebar 1918, with a 43% chance of victory, 29% for a draw and 28% for a Sportist Svoge win. The expected total goals hover at 2.5, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.9% probability. Sportist Svoge, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages 0.7 goals scored and 0.9 conceded, while Hebar 1918 on the road against comparable opposition nets 1.33 goals and concedes 1.22. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.6%), Under 5.5 (96.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.7%), Home under 2.5 goals (90.6%), Under 4.5 (89.5%) and Away +2 handicap (88.9%). Sportist Svoge’s recent form shows a loss, draw, loss, loss, win, coming off a defeat, while Hebar 1918’s last five contain two draws, two wins and a loss, coming off a draw.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sportist Svoge win
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hebar 1918 win
43.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sportist Svoge
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.43
0.93
1.20
0.73
1.67
vs Stronger (13)
0.85
2.31
1.40
1.80
0.50
2.62
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.76
0.70
0.90
1.00
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Hebar 1918) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hebar 1918
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.60
1.50
1.79
1.25
1.44
vs Stronger (10)
1.20
1.80
1.25
1.50
1.17
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.45
1.50
1.60
1.90
1.30
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Sportist Svoge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
71.9%
Under 1.5
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
44.9%
Under 2.5
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
23.6%
Under 3.5
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
50.8%
No
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-1
10.6%
0-0
9.7%
1-2
8.9%
0-2
8.3%
1-0
7.8%
2-1
6.8%
2-0
4.9%
Sportist Svoge goals ↓
Hebar 1918 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.7%
11%
8.3%
3.9%
1.3%
1
7.8%
14%
8.9%
4.1%
1.4%
2
4.9%
6.8%
4.7%
2.2%
0.8%
3
1.7%
2.4%
1.7%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sportist Svoge goals (down), columns = Hebar 1918 goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vihren
2.14
CSKA Sofia II
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Yantra 2019
1.86
Montana
1.57
Beroe
1.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Marek
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Rilski Sportist
1.29
Ludogorets II
1.14
Hebar 1918
1.14
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Sportist Svoge
0.86
Dobrudzha
0.71
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Sportist Svoge is 0.29 points worse than Hebar 1918 in terms of average points per game (0.86 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA Sofia II
2.14
Vihren
2.14
Nesebar
1.86
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.86
Montana
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.71
Beroe
1.29
Fratria
1.29
Yantra 2019
1.29
Marek
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.57
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.43
Sportist Svoge is 1.14 goals worse than Hebar 1918 in terms of goals scored per game (0.57 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.57
Marek
0.86
Beroe
0.86
Sportist Svoge
0.86
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Montana
1.14
Ludogorets II
1.14
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.29
Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Hebar 1918
1.86
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.43
Sportist Svoge is 1.00 goals better than Hebar 1918 in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 1.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sportist Svoge or Draw
56.9%
Avg Implied -
28%
29%
43%
covers Sportist Svoge + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge or Hebar 1918
70.7%
Avg Implied -
28%
29%
43%
covers Sportist Svoge + Hebar 1918
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hebar 1918
72.4%
Avg Implied -
28%
29%
43%
covers Draw + Hebar 1918
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sportist Svoge over/under 0.5
Over
65.8%
Under
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 1.5
Over
29.1%
Under
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 2.5
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 3.5
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hebar 1918 over/under 0.5
Over
75.3%
Under
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hebar 1918 over/under 1.5
Over
40.8%
Under
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hebar 1918 over/under 2.5
Over
16.6%
Under
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hebar 1918 over/under 3.5
Over
5.4%
Under
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sportist Svoge, so a minus line means Sportist Svoge give that many goals of a start and Hebar 1918 receive them. At -1, Sportist Svoge must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sportist Svoge win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sportist Svoge)
Sportist Svoge -2
3.3%
Draw -2
7.8%
Hebar 1918 +2
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sportist Svoge)
Sportist Svoge -1
11.1%
Draw -1
16.5%
Hebar 1918 +1
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sportist Svoge)
Sportist Svoge +1
56.9%
Draw +1
21.9%
Hebar 1918 -1
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sportist Svoge)
Sportist Svoge +2
78.8%
Draw +2
13.3%
Hebar 1918 -2
8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sportist Svoge
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.40
0.73
0.33
0.60
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
1.23
0.60
1.40
0.25
1.12
vs Similar (17)
0.35
0.24
0.30
0.40
0.43
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Hebar 1918) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hebar 1918
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.86
0.86
0.38
0.75
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
0.80
0.25
0.75
0.83
0.83
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.80
1.10
0.90
0.10
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sportist Svoge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sportist Svoge over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hebar 1918 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hebar 1918 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hebar 1918 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sportist Svoge
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.53
0.47
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.08
0.80
0.40
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.53
0.40
0.50
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Hebar 1918) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hebar 1918
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
0.64
0.93
0.88
0.69
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
1.00
1.00
0.75
0.33
1.17
vs Similar (20)
0.85
0.70
0.50
1.00
1.20
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Sportist Svoge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sportist Svoge over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hebar 1918 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hebar 1918 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hebar 1918 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Hebar 1918 · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kenan Dunnwald-Turan50%
Nabil Makni43%
Toma Ushagelov20%
Oleksiy Zbun14%
Atanas Kabov14%
Kaloyan Krastev12%
Dušan Vuković9%
Stefan Tsonkov0%
Kristiyan Andonov0%
Georgi Tartov0%
Nikolay Nikolaev0%
Radoslav Galinov Terziev0%
Milen Gamakov0%
Miloš Petrović0%
Yanko Angelov0%
Oktay Hamdiev0%
Mario Zebić0%
Róbert Mazáň0%
Márcio Rosa0%
Hama Tsumu0%
Daniil Kondrakov0%
Ilker Budinov0%
Petar Debarliev0%
Nathan Markelo0%
Johan N'Zi0%
Yanis Guermouche0%
Martin Mihaylov0%
Enzo El Fattahi0%
Branimir Ćavar0%
Bozhidar Penchev0%
Sheikh Senghor0%
Iliya Rusinov0%
Dominik Pavlek0%
William Fonkeu0%
Kaloyan Pehlivanov0%
Georgi Plamenov Staykov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Enzo El Fattahi67%
Oleksiy Zbun43%
Yanis Guermouche43%
Róbert Mazáň40%
Radoslav Galinov Terziev33%
Ilker Budinov33%
Johan N'Zi33%
Branimir Ćavar33%
Nathan Markelo29%
Milen Gamakov25%
Miloš Petrović25%
Yanko Angelov25%
Georgi Plamenov Staykov25%
Martin Mihaylov22%
Nabil Makni21%
Iliya Rusinov20%
Kaloyan Pehlivanov20%
Dušan Vuković18%
Nikolay Nikolaev17%
Kenan Dunnwald-Turan17%
Atanas Kabov14%
Georgi Tartov14%
Sheikh Senghor14%
Kaloyan Krastev12%
Bozhidar Penchev8%
Stefan Tsonkov0%
Kristiyan Andonov0%
Oktay Hamdiev0%
Mario Zebić0%
Márcio Rosa0%
Hama Tsumu0%
Daniil Kondrakov0%
Petar Debarliev0%
Toma Ushagelov0%
Dominik Pavlek0%
William Fonkeu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kristiyan Andonov29%
Róbert Mazáň20%
Iliya Rusinov20%
Atanas Kabov14%
Nabil Makni14%
William Fonkeu12%
Dušan Vuković9%
Oleksiy Zbun0%
Stefan Tsonkov0%
Georgi Tartov0%
Nikolay Nikolaev0%
Radoslav Galinov Terziev0%
Milen Gamakov0%
Miloš Petrović0%
Yanko Angelov0%
Oktay Hamdiev0%
Mario Zebić0%
Márcio Rosa0%
Hama Tsumu0%
Daniil Kondrakov0%
Ilker Budinov0%
Petar Debarliev0%
Kaloyan Krastev0%
Kenan Dunnwald-Turan0%
Nathan Markelo0%
Toma Ushagelov0%
Johan N'Zi0%
Yanis Guermouche0%
Martin Mihaylov0%
Enzo El Fattahi0%
Branimir Ćavar0%
Bozhidar Penchev0%
Sheikh Senghor0%
Dominik Pavlek0%
Kaloyan Pehlivanov0%
Georgi Plamenov Staykov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kenan Dunnwald-Turan33%
Yanis Guermouche29%
Atanas Kabov14%
Dušan Vuković9%
Oleksiy Zbun0%
Stefan Tsonkov0%
Kristiyan Andonov0%
Georgi Tartov0%
Nikolay Nikolaev0%
Radoslav Galinov Terziev0%
Milen Gamakov0%
Miloš Petrović0%
Yanko Angelov0%
Oktay Hamdiev0%
Mario Zebić0%
Róbert Mazáň0%
Márcio Rosa0%
Hama Tsumu0%
Daniil Kondrakov0%
Ilker Budinov0%
Petar Debarliev0%
Kaloyan Krastev0%
Nathan Markelo0%
Toma Ushagelov0%
Johan N'Zi0%
Martin Mihaylov0%
Enzo El Fattahi0%
Branimir Ćavar0%
Bozhidar Penchev0%
Sheikh Senghor0%
Nabil Makni0%
Iliya Rusinov0%
Dominik Pavlek0%
William Fonkeu0%
Kaloyan Pehlivanov0%
Georgi Plamenov Staykov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
VIH (18)
€2m
EVT (23)
€2m
C1B (19)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
BER (13)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Sportist Svoge's squad is €2m less valuable than Hebar 1918's (€1m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
H1 (8)
€2m
VIH (9)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
BER (5)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
Sportist Svoge's attack is €1m less valuable than Hebar 1918's (€0m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
VIH (3)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
DOB (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
H1 (2)
€0m
BER (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Sportist Svoge and Hebar 1918 have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
H1 (9)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
BER (6)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
VIH (6)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Sportist Svoge's defence is €1m less valuable than Hebar 1918's (€0m vs €1m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vihren
CSKA Sofia II
Fratria
Yantra 2019
Montana
Beroe
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Nesebar
Marek
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Rilski Sportist
Ludogorets II
Spartak Pleven
Dobrudzha
Pirin Blagoevgrad