Sportist Svoge are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with the model assigning a 43% chance to a victory, 31% for a draw and 27% to an away win. The match is expected to see 2.3 goals on average, with the most probable total being two and the single most likely scoreline 1-1, a 14.3% chance. Sportist Svoge, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, have been scoring 0.7 goals per game while conceding 0.9, whereas Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, on the road, average 1.11 goals scored and 1.78 conceded. Sportist’s recent run of DLLWD leaves them coming off a draw, while Lokomotiv’s last five of LWWLL follows a 0-3 defeat. The model’s selections highlight a near-certain low-scoring affair: Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.1%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.2%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.0%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.4%), Under 5.5 (97.1%) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.7%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sportist Svoge win
42.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sportist Svoge
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.43
0.93
1.20
0.73
1.67
vs Stronger (13)
0.85
2.31
1.40
1.80
0.50
2.62
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.76
0.70
0.90
1.00
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.80
1.20
1.33
0.93
2.27
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
2.17
0.50
1.33
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (18)
1.44
1.56
1.67
1.33
1.22
1.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Sportist Svoge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
68.0%
Under 1.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
40.2%
Under 2.5
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.9%
Under 3.5
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
46.9%
No
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0
12.0%
0-0
11.4%
2-0
8.7%
0-1
8.6%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
6.4%
0-2
4.9%
Sportist Svoge goals ↓
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.6%
4.9%
1.6%
0.4%
1
12%
14%
6.4%
2.1%
0.5%
2
8.7%
8.5%
4.2%
1.4%
0.3%
3
3.8%
3.7%
1.8%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.2%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sportist Svoge goals (down), columns = Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vihren
2.14
CSKA Sofia II
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Yantra 2019
1.86
Montana
1.57
Beroe
1.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Marek
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Rilski Sportist
1.29
Ludogorets II
1.14
Hebar 1918
1.14
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Sportist Svoge
0.86
Dobrudzha
0.71
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Sportist Svoge is 0.57 points worse than Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa in terms of average points per game (0.86 vs 1.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA Sofia II
2.14
Vihren
2.14
Nesebar
1.86
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.86
Montana
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.71
Beroe
1.29
Fratria
1.29
Yantra 2019
1.29
Marek
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.57
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.43
Sportist Svoge is 0.43 goals worse than Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa in terms of goals scored per game (0.57 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.57
Marek
0.86
Beroe
0.86
Sportist Svoge
0.86
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Montana
1.14
Ludogorets II
1.14
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.29
Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Hebar 1918
1.86
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.43
Sportist Svoge is 0.43 goals better than Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sportist Svoge or Draw
73.4%
Avg Implied -
43%
31%
27%
covers Sportist Svoge + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge or Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
69.5%
Avg Implied -
43%
31%
27%
covers Sportist Svoge + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
57.1%
Avg Implied -
43%
31%
27%
covers Draw + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sportist Svoge over/under 0.5
Over
73.0%
Under
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 1.5
Over
37.7%
Under
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 2.5
Over
14.5%
Under
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 3.5
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 0.5
Over
62.5%
Under
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 1.5
Over
25.7%
Under
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 2.5
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 3.5
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sportist Svoge, so a minus line means Sportist Svoge give that many goals of a start and Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa receive them. At -1, Sportist Svoge must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sportist Svoge win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sportist Svoge)
Sportist Svoge -2
7.3%
Draw -2
13.1%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa +2
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sportist Svoge)
Sportist Svoge -1
20.4%
Draw -1
22.5%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa +1
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sportist Svoge)
Sportist Svoge +1
73.4%
Draw +1
16.5%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa -1
10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sportist Svoge)
Sportist Svoge +2
89.9%
Draw +2
7.3%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa -2
2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sportist Svoge
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.40
0.73
0.33
0.60
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
1.23
0.60
1.40
0.25
1.12
vs Similar (17)
0.35
0.24
0.30
0.40
0.43
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.00
0.67
0.60
0.53
1.40
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
1.25
0.33
0.67
0.17
1.83
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.83
0.89
0.56
0.78
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Sportist Svoge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.4%
Under 0.5
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
30.0%
Under 1.5
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.5%
Under 2.5
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sportist Svoge over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.1%
Under
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.9%
Under
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.8%
Under
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sportist Svoge
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.53
0.47
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.08
0.80
0.40
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.53
0.40
0.50
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.80
0.53
0.73
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
0.92
0.17
0.67
0.33
1.17
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.72
0.78
0.78
0.44
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sportist Svoge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.5%
Under 0.5
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.0%
Under 1.5
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.4%
Under 2.5
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sportist Svoge over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.5%
Under
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.6%
Under
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
42.3%
Under
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.6%
Under
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
VIH (18)
€2m
EVT (23)
€2m
C1B (19)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
BER (13)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Sportist Svoge and Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
H1 (8)
€2m
VIH (9)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
BER (5)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
Sportist Svoge and Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
VIH (3)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
DOB (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
H1 (2)
€0m
BER (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Sportist Svoge and Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
H1 (9)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
BER (6)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
VIH (6)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Sportist Svoge and Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vihren
CSKA Sofia II
Fratria
Yantra 2019
Montana
Beroe
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Nesebar
Marek
Rilski Sportist
Hebar 1918
Ludogorets II
Spartak Pleven
Dobrudzha
Pirin Blagoevgrad