This match between Sportist Svoge and Nesebar in the Bulgaria Second League is finely balanced, with Sportist Svoge coming off a win against Pirin Blagoevgrad, while Nesebar is also on a high after beating Dobrudzha. The home win percentage stands at 41%, draw at 31%, and away win at 29%.
The model's selection is the home win, with a predicted total of 2.3 goals and the most likely total of 2 goals. The single most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 14.4%. Sportist Svoge has scored 0.62 goals on average at home and conceded 1 goal per match, while Nesebar has scored 0.5 goals on average away and conceded none.
The model's selection is the Under 3.5 goals, with a probability of 80%. Other suggested picks include the Home win, with a probability of 41%, the Draw, with a probability of 31%, and the Away win, with a probability of 29%.
Results analysis
The away team, Nesebar, pulled off a stunning upset, securing a 0-1 victory over the home team, Sportist Svoge. This win extends Nesebar's run, having won their last two games. The pre-match favourite, Sportist Svoge, did not come through, with the model's call for a home win proving incorrect. The model's selection had a 41% chance of winning, but Nesebar's 29% probability was enough to secure the win.
The model's selection, Home win, was wrong. The model's other selection, Under 3.5, hit with an 80% probability. The expected total goals was 2.3, with the most likely total being 2, but the actual score was 0-1. The most likely scores included 1-1, 1-0, and 0-0, but none of these occurred.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sportist Svoge win✗ Miss
40.7%
Avg Implied 58.5% · @ 1.54
Edge
-17.7%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Dafabet
1.56
Bet365
1.55
William Hil
1.53
Draw✗ Miss
30.7%
Avg Implied 24.9% · @ 3.61
Edge
+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.81
Marathonbet
3.78
1xBet
3.75
Dafabet
3.70
Betano
3.60
Nesebar win✓ Hit
28.6%
Avg Implied 16.7% · @ 5.38
Edge
+11.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.93
Marathonbet
5.80
William Hil
5.50
888Sport
5.50
Dafabet
5.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sportist Svoge
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.50
1.00
1.27
0.73
1.73
vs Stronger (12)
0.83
2.33
1.17
1.67
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (18)
0.89
0.94
0.89
1.00
0.89
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Nesebar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nesebar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.50
0.87
1.47
0.67
1.53
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
1.43
1.75
0.75
1.00
2.33
vs Similar (23)
0.57
1.52
0.55
1.73
0.58
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sportist Svoge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.2%
@ 1.38+2.4%
Under 1.5
31.8%
@ 2.65-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Under
1xBet
2.69
Marathonbet
2.69
Pinnacle
2.64
888Sport
2.60
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.4%
@ 2.19-1.6%
Under 2.5
59.6%
@ 1.58+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.28
Marathonbet
2.25
1xBet
2.25
888Sport
2.25
10Bet
2.15
Under
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.0%
@ 4.35-0.9%
Under 3.5
80.0%
@ 1.15+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
4.40
1xBet
4.33
Marathonbet
4.33
Under
888Sport
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.5%
@ 2.25+6.9%
No
52.5%
@ 1.54-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
2.27
888Sport
2.25
William Hil
2.25
1xBet
2.24
No
1xBet
1.55
William Hil
1.55
888Sport
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%@ 6.78+8.1%
1-0
11.5%@ 4.83+2.7%
0-0
11.3%@ 8.14+6.1%
0-1 ✓
9.0%@ 10.40+4.9%
2-1
8.3%@ 7.65+2.8%
2-0
8.1%@ 5.97+1.0%
1-2
6.7%@ 16.45+4.1%
0-2
5.3%@ 27.60+3.7%
Sportist Svoge goals ↓
Nesebar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.0%
5.3%
1.8%
0.5%
1
11%
14%
6.7%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.1%
8.3%
4.3%
1.5%
0.4%
3
3.4%
3.5%
1.8%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.1%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sportist Svoge goals (down), columns = Nesebar goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vihren
2.14
CSKA Sofia II
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Yantra 2019
1.86
Montana
1.57
Beroe
1.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Marek
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Rilski Sportist
1.29
Ludogorets II
1.14
Hebar 1918
1.14
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Sportist Svoge
0.86
Dobrudzha
0.71
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Sportist Svoge is 0.57 points worse than Nesebar in terms of average points per game (0.86 vs 1.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA Sofia II
2.14
Vihren
2.14
Nesebar
1.86
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.86
Montana
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.71
Beroe
1.29
Fratria
1.29
Yantra 2019
1.29
Marek
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.57
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.43
Sportist Svoge is 1.29 goals worse than Nesebar in terms of goals scored per game (0.57 vs 1.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.57
Marek
0.86
Beroe
0.86
Sportist Svoge
0.86
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Montana
1.14
Ludogorets II
1.14
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.29
Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Hebar 1918
1.86
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.43
Sportist Svoge is 0.57 goals better than Nesebar in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sportist Svoge or Draw✗ Miss
71.4%
Avg Implied -
41%
31%
29%
covers Sportist Svoge + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge or Nesebar✓ Hit
69.3%
Avg Implied -
41%
31%
29%
covers Sportist Svoge + Nesebar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Nesebar✓ Hit
59.3%
Avg Implied -
41%
31%
29%
covers Draw + Nesebar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sportist Svoge
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.73
0.47
0.80
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
1.25
0.50
1.17
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.39
0.44
0.56
0.44
0.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Nesebar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nesebar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.40
0.67
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.43
1.00
0.25
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (23)
0.26
0.74
0.18
0.82
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sportist Svoge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sportist Svoge over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sportist Svoge
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.53
0.47
0.33
1.07
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
1.08
0.67
0.50
0.17
1.67
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.56
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Nesebar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nesebar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.83
0.47
0.80
0.33
0.87
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (23)
0.30
0.78
0.36
0.91
0.25
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sportist Svoge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sportist Svoge over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
80.0%
1.15
888Sport
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →