In the Bulgaria: Second League, Pirin Blagoevgrad visits Sportist Svoge on August 9. The recent form storylines are worth noting, with Sportist Svoge coming off a draw and Pirin Blagoevgrad after three straight defeats. However, Sportist Svoge's recent form has been somewhat inconsistent, with a last 5 record of DDWLW.
The model predicts a home win, with a 41% probability of Sportist Svoge taking the three points. The expected total goals are 2.8, and the most likely outcome is a draw, with a 13.1% chance of a 1-1 scoreline. Sportist Svoge has scored 0.75 goals on average at home, conceding 1.25, while Pirin Blagoevgrad has scored 1.3 goals on average away, conceding 1.8.
The model's selection is the Over 1.5 goals, with a 77.6% probability and a 12% edge. The suggested picks also include the Home win, with a 41% probability, and the Away win, with a 32% probability. The draw percentage is 28%.
Results analysis
The win extends Sportist Svoge's run, coming off a victory over Pirin Blagoevgrad in their previous encounter. The final score was 1-0, with Sportist Svoge taking home the win. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 41%.
While the model's call was on point, other selections didn't quite pan out. The model's selection of Sportist Svoge to win was correct, but the suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals, which had a 77.6% probability, missed.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sportist Svoge win✓ Hit
40.7%
Avg Implied 47.4% · @ 1.90
Edge
-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Dafabet
1.92
Betano
1.87
Draw✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied 28.7% · @ 3.15
Edge
-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.20
Superbet
3.15
Marathonbet
3.15
1xBet
3.15
Dafabet
3.15
Pirin Blagoevgrad win✗ Miss
31.6%
Avg Implied 23.9% · @ 3.77
Edge
+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
3.95
Bet365
3.90
Dafabet
3.80
Superbet
3.70
1xBet
3.68
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sportist Svoge
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.57
1.00
1.43
0.75
1.69
vs Stronger (12)
0.83
2.42
1.17
1.83
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (18)
0.89
1.00
0.88
1.12
0.90
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Pirin Blagoevgrad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.53
0.93
1.00
1.12
2.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.62
0.25
1.75
0.75
1.50
vs Similar (22)
1.23
1.50
1.20
0.70
1.25
2.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sportist Svoge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.6%
@ 1.38+11.9%
Under 1.5
22.4%
@ 2.64-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.40
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
Under
Marathonbet
2.66
1xBet
2.66
Superbet
2.60
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.4%
@ 2.27+11.9%
Under 2.5
47.6%
@ 1.55-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.35
1xBet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.27
Superbet
2.27
Betano
2.20
Under
Bet365
1.57
1xBet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
Betano
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.2%
@ 4.20+8.6%
Under 3.5
69.8%
@ 1.15-8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.30
1xBet
4.30
Superbet
4.00
Under
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.2%
@ 2.00+11.2%
No
42.8%
@ 1.70-11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
2.05
Marathonbet
1.97
1xBet
1.97
No
1xBet
1.72
Superbet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%@ 5.38+5.7%
2-1
8.9%@ 7.65+3.7%
1-0 ✓
8.1%@ 5.05+0.2%
1-2
7.7%@ 11.64+4.3%
0-0
7.4%@ 7.30+2.0%
2-0
6.9%@ 7.08+1.3%
0-1
6.8%@ 7.33+1.4%
2-2
5.7%@ 14.94+3.0%
Sportist Svoge goals ↓
Pirin Blagoevgrad goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
6.8%
5.2%
2.2%
0.7%
1
8.1%
13%
7.7%
3.3%
1.1%
2
6.9%
8.9%
5.7%
2.4%
0.8%
3
3.4%
4.4%
2.8%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.3%
1.6%
1.1%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sportist Svoge goals (down), columns = Pirin Blagoevgrad goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Fratria
2.17
Vihren
2.00
CSKA Sofia II
1.83
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.83
Beroe
1.67
Yantra 2019
1.67
Montana
1.67
Nesebar
1.67
Ludogorets II
1.33
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.33
Marek
1.17
Spartak Pleven
1.17
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.17
Hebar 1918
1.17
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Sportist Svoge
1.00
Dobrudzha
0.83
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Sportist Svoge is 1.00 points better than Pirin Blagoevgrad in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nesebar
2.17
Montana
2.00
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
2.00
Hebar 1918
1.83
Vihren
1.83
CSKA Sofia II
1.67
Beroe
1.50
Fratria
1.33
Yantra 2019
1.17
Dobrudzha
1.17
Marek
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.83
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
0.83
Rilski Sportist
0.83
Sportist Svoge
0.50
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.50
Sportist Svoge and Pirin Blagoevgrad are level in goals scored per game (both 0.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.50
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.67
Sportist Svoge
0.67
Marek
1.00
Beroe
1.00
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.17
Ludogorets II
1.17
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.17
Dobrudzha
1.33
Montana
1.33
Spartak Pleven
1.50
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.50
Nesebar
1.50
Hebar 1918
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.67
Sportist Svoge is 3.00 goals better than Pirin Blagoevgrad in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 3.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sportist Svoge
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.80
0.50
1.00
0.38
0.62
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
1.42
0.50
1.50
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.39
0.50
0.62
0.40
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Pirin Blagoevgrad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.53
0.57
0.00
0.56
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.50
0.25
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.55
0.70
0.00
0.58
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Sportist Svoge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sportist Svoge over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sportist Svoge
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.50
0.43
0.38
1.06
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
1.00
0.67
0.33
0.17
1.67
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.61
0.38
0.50
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Pirin Blagoevgrad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.00
0.36
1.00
0.56
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
1.12
0.00
1.75
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.95
0.50
0.70
0.67
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sportist Svoge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sportist Svoge over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.6%
1.38
Superbet
1.40
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
-
-
+11.9%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Pirin Blagoevgrad · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Vitālijs Jagodinskis33%
Martin Georgiev33%
Ivan Tasev30%
Aymen Souda29%
Arnaud Luzayadio20%
Andrey Yordanov11%
Ventsislav Bengyuzov10%
Hugo Komano10%
Boris Tyutyukov0%
Nikolay Bodurov0%
Stanislav Kostov0%
Aleksandar Dyulgerov0%
Hristo Popadiyn0%
Modou Diagne0%
Dmytro Semeniv0%
Maksym Kovalov0%
Ayoub Abou Oulam0%
Asen Donchev0%
Georgi Varbanov0%
Danylo Polonskyi0%
Ilian Kostov0%
Martin Bachev0%
Evgeni Georgiev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dmytro Semeniv67%
Georgi Varbanov60%
Boris Tyutyukov50%
Hristo Popadiyn43%
Ventsislav Bengyuzov40%
Vitālijs Jagodinskis33%
Nikolay Bodurov25%
Modou Diagne25%
Evgeni Georgiev25%
Ivan Tasev20%
Ayoub Abou Oulam20%
Danylo Polonskyi17%
Aymen Souda14%
Andrey Yordanov11%
Stanislav Kostov11%
Maksym Kovalov11%
Hugo Komano10%
Aleksandar Dyulgerov0%
Arnaud Luzayadio0%
Asen Donchev0%
Ilian Kostov0%
Martin Bachev0%
Martin Georgiev0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Asen Donchev25%
Hugo Komano20%
Georgi Varbanov20%
Andrey Yordanov11%
Ivan Tasev10%
Ventsislav Bengyuzov0%
Boris Tyutyukov0%
Nikolay Bodurov0%
Stanislav Kostov0%
Aleksandar Dyulgerov0%
Hristo Popadiyn0%
Modou Diagne0%
Aymen Souda0%
Vitālijs Jagodinskis0%
Dmytro Semeniv0%
Arnaud Luzayadio0%
Maksym Kovalov0%
Ayoub Abou Oulam0%
Danylo Polonskyi0%
Ilian Kostov0%
Martin Bachev0%
Martin Georgiev0%
Evgeni Georgiev0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ivan Tasev20%
Aymen Souda14%
Hugo Komano10%
Ventsislav Bengyuzov0%
Boris Tyutyukov0%
Nikolay Bodurov0%
Andrey Yordanov0%
Stanislav Kostov0%
Aleksandar Dyulgerov0%
Hristo Popadiyn0%
Modou Diagne0%
Vitālijs Jagodinskis0%
Dmytro Semeniv0%
Arnaud Luzayadio0%
Maksym Kovalov0%
Ayoub Abou Oulam0%
Asen Donchev0%
Georgi Varbanov0%
Danylo Polonskyi0%
Ilian Kostov0%
Martin Bachev0%
Martin Georgiev0%
Evgeni Georgiev0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
VIH (18)
€2m
EVT (23)
€2m
C1B (19)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
BER (13)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Sportist Svoge's squad is €1m less valuable than Pirin Blagoevgrad's (€1m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
H1 (8)
€2m
VIH (9)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
BER (5)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
Sportist Svoge and Pirin Blagoevgrad have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
VIH (3)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
DOB (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
H1 (2)
€0m
BER (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Sportist Svoge and Pirin Blagoevgrad have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
H1 (9)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
BER (6)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
VIH (6)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Sportist Svoge and Pirin Blagoevgrad have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →