Sportist Svoge’s recent run of two straight defeats has left them struggling at home, while Vihren have gone unbeaten in five outings, including a 2-2 draw away. The model therefore favours an away win, with a 50 % probability, followed by a draw at 28 % and a home win at 22 %. The expected total goals hover at 2.5, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.2 % chance. Sportist Svoge, playing against a stronger opponent, averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded at home, whereas Vihren, facing a weaker side away, averages 1.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.6 %, Under 6.5 at 98.5 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.4 %, Under 5.5 at 95.7 %, Home under 2.5 goals at 92.8 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 92.6 %, Away +2 handicap at 92.0 %, and Under 4.5 at 88.8 %.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sportist Svoge win
19.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vihren win
52.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sportist Svoge
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.43
0.93
1.20
0.73
1.67
vs Stronger (13)
0.85
2.31
1.40
1.80
0.50
2.62
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.76
0.70
0.90
1.00
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Vihren) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vihren
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.07
2.38
0.88
1.64
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.47
0.93
1.78
0.67
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (15)
2.60
1.20
3.14
1.14
2.12
1.25
Clean sheet %
33% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sportist Svoge) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
70.0%
Under 1.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
42.6%
Under 2.5
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.8%
Under 3.5
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
46.0%
No
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
0-1
13.0%
0-2
10.9%
0-0
10.4%
1-2
9.2%
1-0
6.6%
0-3
5.6%
2-1
5.1%
Sportist Svoge goals ↓
Vihren goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
13%
11%
5.6%
2.1%
1
6.6%
13%
9.2%
4.7%
1.8%
2
3.3%
5.1%
3.9%
2.0%
0.8%
3
0.9%
1.4%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sportist Svoge goals (down), columns = Vihren goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vihren
2.14
CSKA Sofia II
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Yantra 2019
1.86
Montana
1.57
Beroe
1.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Marek
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Rilski Sportist
1.29
Ludogorets II
1.14
Hebar 1918
1.14
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Sportist Svoge
0.86
Dobrudzha
0.71
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Sportist Svoge is 1.29 points worse than Vihren in terms of average points per game (0.86 vs 2.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA Sofia II
2.14
Vihren
2.14
Nesebar
1.86
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.86
Montana
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.71
Beroe
1.29
Fratria
1.29
Yantra 2019
1.29
Marek
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.57
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.43
Sportist Svoge is 1.57 goals worse than Vihren in terms of goals scored per game (0.57 vs 2.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.57
Marek
0.86
Beroe
0.86
Sportist Svoge
0.86
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Montana
1.14
Ludogorets II
1.14
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.29
Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Hebar 1918
1.86
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.43
Sportist Svoge is 0.14 goals better than Vihren in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sportist Svoge or Draw
47.6%
Avg Implied -
20%
28%
52%
covers Sportist Svoge + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge or Vihren
71.9%
Avg Implied -
20%
28%
52%
covers Sportist Svoge + Vihren
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Vihren
80.5%
Avg Implied -
20%
28%
52%
covers Draw + Vihren
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sportist Svoge over/under 0.5
Over
57.1%
Under
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 1.5
Over
20.8%
Under
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 2.5
Over
5.4%
Under
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 3.5
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vihren over/under 0.5
Over
78.5%
Under
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vihren over/under 1.5
Over
45.4%
Under
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vihren over/under 2.5
Over
20.0%
Under
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vihren over/under 3.5
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sportist Svoge, so a minus line means Sportist Svoge give that many goals of a start and Vihren receive them. At -1, Sportist Svoge must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sportist Svoge win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sportist Svoge)
Sportist Svoge -2
1.6%
Draw -2
5.0%
Vihren +2
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sportist Svoge)
Sportist Svoge -1
6.6%
Draw -1
12.9%
Vihren +1
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sportist Svoge)
Sportist Svoge +1
47.6%
Draw +1
24.4%
Vihren -1
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sportist Svoge)
Sportist Svoge +2
72.1%
Draw +2
16.4%
Vihren -2
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sportist Svoge
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.40
0.73
0.33
0.60
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
1.23
0.60
1.40
0.25
1.12
vs Similar (17)
0.35
0.24
0.30
0.40
0.43
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Vihren) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vihren
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.33
0.88
0.25
0.57
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.27
0.44
0.33
0.33
0.17
vs Weaker (15)
1.07
0.40
1.43
0.14
0.75
0.62
Clean sheet %
70% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Sportist Svoge) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sportist Svoge over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vihren over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vihren over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vihren over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sportist Svoge
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.53
0.47
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.08
0.80
0.40
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.53
0.40
0.50
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Vihren) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vihren
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.73
1.50
0.62
1.07
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.07
0.67
1.33
0.33
0.67
1.17
vs Weaker (15)
1.53
0.80
1.71
1.00
1.38
0.62
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Sportist Svoge) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sportist Svoge over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sportist Svoge over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vihren over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vihren over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vihren over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
VIH (18)
€2m
EVT (23)
€2m
C1B (19)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
BER (13)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Sportist Svoge's squad is €2m less valuable than Vihren's (€1m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
H1 (8)
€2m
VIH (9)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
BER (5)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
Sportist Svoge and Vihren have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
VIH (3)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
DOB (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
H1 (2)
€0m
BER (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Sportist Svoge and Vihren have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
H1 (9)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
BER (6)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
VIH (6)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Sportist Svoge and Vihren have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
CSKA Sofia II
Fratria
Yantra 2019
Montana
Beroe
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Nesebar
Marek
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Rilski Sportist
Hebar 1918
Ludogorets II
Spartak Pleven
Dobrudzha
Pirin Blagoevgrad