The model points to an away win as the most likely outcome, with a 51% chance for Mgarr United, 25% for a draw, and 23% for St. Andrews. The expected total goals hover at 2.9, yet the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12% probability. St. Andrews, playing at home against a similarly ranked side, averages 1.0 goal scored and 2.1 conceded, while Mgarr United, on the road, averages 1.83 scored and 0.83 conceded. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.1%), Under 6.5 (97%), Under 5.5 (92.4%), Away +2 handicap (90.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (89.4%), Home under 2.5 goals (89.3%), and Away over 0.5 goals (83.2%). Each pick is listed with its exact probability, and no other outcomes are mentioned.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
St. Andrews win
23.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United win
51.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
St. Andrews
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.53
1.13
2.00
1.67
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.35
1.76
1.00
2.10
1.86
1.29
vs Weaker (13)
1.46
1.23
1.40
1.80
1.50
0.88
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Mgarr United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mgarr United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.43
1.80
1.93
1.53
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.71
1.71
1.62
2.38
1.83
0.83
vs Weaker (16)
1.62
1.19
2.00
1.43
1.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (St. Andrews) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.0%
Under 1.5
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.9%
Under 2.5
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.5%
Under 3.5
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.6%
No
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
8.6%
0-1
8.5%
0-0
6.5%
2-1
6.2%
1-3
5.8%
2-2
5.5%
St. Andrews goals ↓
Mgarr United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
8.5%
8.6%
5.1%
2.3%
1
5.0%
12%
9.7%
5.8%
2.6%
2
3.5%
6.2%
5.5%
3.3%
1.5%
3
1.3%
2.4%
2.1%
1.3%
0.6%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = St. Andrews goals (down), columns = Mgarr United goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tarxien Rainbows
2.82
Naxxar Lions
2.73
Swieqi United
2.14
Melita
1.67
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Sirens
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Fgura United
1.45
Gudja United
1.45
Victoria Hotspurs
1.40
Attard
1.40
Santa Lucía
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
St. Andrews is 0.27 points worse than Mgarr United in terms of average points per game (1.23 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tarxien Rainbows
3.33
Naxxar Lions
3.23
Sirens
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
Pietà Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa Lucía
1.82
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Zurrieq
1.64
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
St. Andrews is 0.68 goals worse than Mgarr United in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tarxien Rainbows
0.82
Naxxar Lions
0.85
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Melita
1.33
Santa Lucía
1.41
Mgarr United
1.50
Sirens
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
St. Andrews is 0.23 goals worse than Mgarr United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.73 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
St. Andrews or Draw
48.6%
Avg Implied -
23%
25%
51%
covers St. Andrews + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
St. Andrews or Mgarr United
74.5%
Avg Implied -
23%
25%
51%
covers St. Andrews + Mgarr United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Mgarr United
76.9%
Avg Implied -
23%
25%
51%
covers Draw + Mgarr United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
St. Andrews over/under 0.5
Over
67.9%
Under
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St. Andrews over/under 1.5
Over
31.5%
Under
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St. Andrews over/under 2.5
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St. Andrews over/under 3.5
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 0.5
Over
83.2%
Under
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 1.5
Over
53.3%
Under
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 2.5
Over
26.5%
Under
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 3.5
Over
10.6%
Under
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to St. Andrews, so a minus line means St. Andrews give that many goals of a start and Mgarr United receive them. At -1, St. Andrews must win by two or more to land; a one-goal St. Andrews win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (St. Andrews)
St. Andrews -2
2.8%
Draw -2
6.5%
Mgarr United +2
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (St. Andrews)
St. Andrews -1
9.4%
Draw -1
13.7%
Mgarr United +1
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (St. Andrews)
St. Andrews +1
48.6%
Draw +1
22.2%
Mgarr United -1
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (St. Andrews)
St. Andrews +2
70.7%
Draw +2
16.1%
Mgarr United -2
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
St. Andrews
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.59
0.60
0.60
0.71
0.57
vs Weaker (13)
0.62
0.38
0.80
0.80
0.50
0.12
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Mgarr United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mgarr United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.80
0.93
0.47
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.93
0.75
1.25
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
0.62
0.38
0.86
0.57
0.44
0.22
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (St. Andrews) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
St. Andrews over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St. Andrews over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St. Andrews over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
St. Andrews
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.03
0.47
1.33
1.07
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.71
1.18
0.40
1.50
1.14
0.71
vs Weaker (13)
0.85
0.85
0.60
1.00
1.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Mgarr United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mgarr United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.80
1.00
1.00
1.07
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.07
0.79
0.88
1.12
1.33
0.33
vs Weaker (16)
1.00
0.81
1.14
0.86
0.89
0.78
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (St. Andrews) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
St. Andrews over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St. Andrews over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St. Andrews over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Malta: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Attard
Sirens
Naxxar Lions
Zurrieq
Tarxien Rainbows
Pietà Hotspurs
Melita
Swieqi United
Santa Lucía
Fgura United
Gudja United
Zebbug Rangers
Victoria Hotspurs
Vittoriosa Stars