The match sits on a razor-thin edge, with the model favouring a home win as the most likely outcome. Home and away win probabilities are 37% and 33% respectively, with a 30% chance of a draw. The expected total goals hover at 2.4, centring on a 2-goal total with a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.4% chance. ST Johnstone, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.5 goals scored and 0.67 conceded. Dundee, on the road against a similar tier, averages 1.11 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 84.5%, Over 19.5 fouls at 81.7%, Under 3.5 at 78.2%, Over 8.5 corners at 72.7%, Under 4.5 cards at 70.8%, and Over 1.5 at 70.1%. Each pick is presented with its probability and, where applicable, an edge percentage. The preview highlights the fine balance between the sides, underscoring the uncertainty that makes this fixture intriguing.
Results analysis
The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, Home win, was wrong and the match finished 0-2 in favour of Dundee. The model had given a 37% chance to a home victory, but the away side turned the tables. The final score of 0-2 confirmed the actual result of an away win. The model’s prediction of a home win was therefore incorrect.
The model’s other selections were mixed: Under 5.5 cards (84.5%) missed, Over 19.5 fouls (81.7%) hit, Under 3.5 (78.2%) hit, Over 8.5 corners (72.7%) hit, Under 4.5 cards (70.8%) missed, and Over 1.5 (70.1%) hit. The game’s final outcome contradicted the favourite pick, while most of the other suggested picks proved accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
ST Johnstone win✗ Miss
36.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dundee win✓ Hit
33.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
ST Johnstone
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.27
0.93
1.27
1.33
1.27
vs Stronger (16)
0.88
1.62
0.56
1.67
1.29
1.57
vs Similar (13)
1.31
0.92
1.50
0.67
1.14
1.14
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.77
0.93
1.73
0.87
1.80
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
2.08
0.83
2.17
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (17)
1.12
1.53
1.12
1.38
1.11
1.67
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.1%
Under 1.5
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.6%
Under 2.5
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.8%
Under 3.5
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.7%
No
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0
10.5%
1-0
10.0%
0-1
9.3%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
7.0%
0-2 ✓
6.1%
ST Johnstone goals ↓
Dundee goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.3%
6.1%
2.4%
0.7%
1
10%
14%
7.5%
2.9%
0.8%
2
7.0%
8.0%
4.6%
1.8%
0.5%
3
2.9%
3.3%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ST Johnstone goals (down), columns = Dundee goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.16
Aberdeen
1.92
Rangers
1.84
Hibernian
1.76
Kilmarnock
1.55
Heart Of Midlothian
1.29
Motherwell
1.26
ST Johnstone
1.21
Dundee
1.03
Partick
0.87
Hamilton
0.87
Ross County
0.76
ST Johnstone is 0.18 points better than Dundee in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.00
Celtic
1.92
Hibernian
1.63
Aberdeen
1.47
Kilmarnock
1.29
Hamilton
1.24
Motherwell
1.13
ST Johnstone
1.11
Ross County
1.05
Heart Of Midlothian
1.03
Dundee
0.95
Partick
0.82
ST Johnstone is 0.16 goals better than Dundee in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 0.95).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.66
Aberdeen
0.97
Heart Of Midlothian
1.03
Hibernian
1.21
Kilmarnock
1.24
Motherwell
1.29
Rangers
1.32
ST Johnstone
1.39
Dundee
1.50
Partick
1.61
Ross County
1.63
Hamilton
1.79
ST Johnstone is 0.11 goals better than Dundee in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
ST Johnstone
For 5.0 · Against 6.0 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.5 · Against 10.4 · Total 18.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dundee
For 4.7 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 13.8 · Total 24.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Johnstone
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
9.9
10.9
3.8
3.6
4.0
23.3
22.8
23.8
vs Stronger (23)
11.3
11.4
11.2
4.4
3.6
5.1
22.9
22.5
23.2
vs Similar (25)
10.0
9.3
11.0
3.3
3.5
3.0
23.5
22.6
24.6
vs Weaker (2)
5.0
3.0
7.0
3.5
5.0
2.0
25.0
29.0
21.0
% over line
60%
62%
58%
60%
58%
62%
60%
62%
58%
% under line
40%
38%
42%
40%
42%
38%
40%
38%
42%
This opponent (Dundee) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.7
10.0
3.8
3.9
3.6
24.1
22.9
25.4
vs Stronger (18)
11.8
13.1
10.6
3.2
3.6
2.8
22.2
21.2
23.1
vs Similar (29)
10.2
10.9
9.6
4.1
4.2
4.0
25.5
24.3
26.7
vs Weaker (3)
10.7
10.5
11.0
4.0
3.5
5.0
22.7
21.0
26.0
% over line
62%
60%
64%
50%
52%
48%
68%
60%
76%
% under line
38%
40%
36%
50%
48%
52%
32%
40%
24%
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rangers
11.4
Dundee
10.8
Hamilton
10.8
Ross County
10.8
Hibernian
10.7
Motherwell
10.6
Kilmarnock
10.4
ST Johnstone
10.4
Aberdeen
10.1
Heart Of Midlothian
9.9
Celtic
9.6
Partick
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Rangers
4.5
Hibernian
4.2
Hamilton
4.0
Ross County
3.9
Aberdeen
3.8
Heart Of Midlothian
3.8
ST Johnstone
3.8
Motherwell
3.8
Dundee
3.8
Kilmarnock
3.7
Celtic
3.5
Partick
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
25.8
Rangers
25.5
Aberdeen
24.8
Hibernian
24.6
Motherwell
24.3
Ross County
24.2
Hamilton
24.2
Dundee
24.1
Kilmarnock
23.8
ST Johnstone
23.3
Partick
22.0
Celtic
21.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
61.0%
Under 9.5
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
48.3%
Under 3.5
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
68.3%
Under 21.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ST Johnstone
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.53
0.40
0.67
0.40
0.40
vs Stronger (16)
0.19
0.62
0.11
0.78
0.29
0.43
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.46
0.83
0.50
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.80
0.33
0.93
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
1.00
0.33
1.17
0.17
0.83
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.59
0.38
0.62
0.56
0.56
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ST Johnstone
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.73
0.53
0.60
0.93
0.87
vs Stronger (16)
0.69
1.00
0.44
0.89
1.00
1.14
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.46
0.67
0.17
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.97
0.60
0.80
0.47
1.13
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
1.08
0.50
1.00
0.33
1.17
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.94
0.75
0.75
0.56
1.11
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
ST Johnstone · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ruari Paton33%
Cheick Diabate33%
Kai Fotheringham33%
Josh Fowler33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Jamie Gullan0%
Reece McAlear0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Liam Smith33%
Jamie Gullan33%
Cheick Diabate33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Josh Fowler0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sam Stanton33%
Jamie Gullan33%
Josh Fowler33%
Jason Holt0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Cheick Diabate0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jamie Gullan33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Cheick Diabate0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Josh Fowler0%
Dundee · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Drey Wright33%
Joe Westley33%
Owen Bevan33%
Joe Bevan33%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Alan Forrest0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ethan Hamilton33%
Ryan Finnigan33%
Joe Westley33%
Owen Bevan33%
Brad Halliday0%
Drey Wright0%
Alan Forrest0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Owen Goodman0%
Joe Bevan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alan Forrest33%
Joe Bevan33%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Drey Wright0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
Joe Westley0%
Owen Bevan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Bevan33%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Drey Wright0%
Alan Forrest0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
Joe Westley0%
Owen Bevan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
KIL (24)
€7m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
PAR (20)
€3m
RC (11)
€1m
ST Johnstone and Dundee have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
ST Johnstone's attack is €1m more valuable than Dundee's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
ST Johnstone and Dundee have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
PAR (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
ST Johnstone and Dundee have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Scotland: Premiership 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Aberdeen
Rangers
Hibernian
Kilmarnock
Heart Of Midlothian
Motherwell
Partick
Ross County