ST Johnstone vs Dundee Result & Analysis

The model sees a 40% chance of a ST Johnstone win, 34% for a draw and 26% for Dundee, making the home side the clear favourite. The average goal tally is 1.9, with the most likely total at two goals (28% probability). The single scoreline the model favours is 0-0, a 16.6% chance. ST Johnstone’s home form shows they score and concede 0.57 goals against similar opposition, while Dundee, on the road, averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections are: Over 19.5 fouls 91.9%; Under 3.5 87.8%; Under 5.5 cards 84.2%; Over 21.5 fouls 83.6%; Over 23.5 fouls 71.5%; Under 2.5 70.9% with a 10% edge; Under 4.5 cards 70.3%; Over 2.5 cards 70.0%. The biggest divergence from market sentiment is the high probability of a 0-0 draw, reflecting the low scoring nature of both teams’ recent form.

The win for ST Johnstone extends their recent run, ending a string of two straight defeats. The model’s favourite was a home win, with a 40% probability, and the call proved correct as the final score was 3-1, a home victory. The prediction of the most likely total of 2 goals, at 28%, did not materialise, but the model’s selections largely hit. Over 19.5 fouls, at 91.9%, was a hit; Under 3.5, at 87.8%, missed; Under 5.5 cards, at 84.2%, hit; Over 21.5 fouls, at 83.6%, hit; Over 23.5 fouls, at 71.5%, hit; Under 2.5, at 70.9%, missed; Under 4.5 cards, at 70.3%, hit; and Over 2.5 cards, at 70.0%, hit. The model’s overall performance was strong, with the favoured result delivered and most selections confirmed.