The contest between ST Johnstone and Heart Of Midlothian sits on a razor-thin edge, with the model favouring a home win as the single most likely outcome. The probabilities are 37% for a ST Johnstone victory, 31% for a draw and 32% for a Hearts win. The expected total goals hover at 2.3, with the most probable total being two goals at a 28% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, with a 14.5% probability.
ST Johnstone, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 0.8 goals scored and 2.6 conceded, while Hearts, on the road to a weaker side, averages 1.43 scored and 0.86 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls (87.9%), Under 5.5 cards (82.5%), Under 3.5 (79.5%), Over 21.5 fouls (77.1%), Over 2.5 cards (72.0%) and Under 11.5 corners (71.0%). Each selection is presented with its exact probability, and no other outcome is assigned a win chance. This balanced picture leaves the match open to any of the three results.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win, fell short as the game finished 2-2, a draw that stunned the pundits. The model had given the home side a 37% chance of victory, but the result proved otherwise. Heart Of Midlothian, who had gone unbeaten in their last five outings, held their own, while ST Johnstone, after two straight defeats, could not secure the win. The model’s selections saw a mix of hits and misses: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 87.9%, Under 5.5 cards missed at 82.5%, Under 3.5 missed at 79.5%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 77.1%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 72.0%, and Under 11.5 corners hit at 71.0%. The overall prediction was wrong, but several of the suggested picks proved accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
ST Johnstone win✗ Miss
36.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian win✗ Miss
32.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
ST Johnstone
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.27
1.14
1.07
1.25
1.44
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
2.27
0.80
2.60
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (19)
1.47
0.68
1.33
0.22
1.60
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.23
1.40
0.80
0.93
1.67
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
2.50
1.00
1.67
0.60
3.00
vs Similar (8)
1.00
0.88
1.40
0.60
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (14)
1.50
0.71
1.57
0.57
1.43
0.86
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.7%
Under 1.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.9%
Under 2.5
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
20.5%
Under 3.5
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.4%
No
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.1%
1-0
10.5%
0-1
9.6%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
7.2%
0-2
6.1%
ST Johnstone goals ↓
Heart Of Midlothian goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.6%
6.1%
2.3%
0.6%
1
11%
15%
7.4%
2.7%
0.8%
2
7.2%
8.0%
4.4%
1.6%
0.5%
3
2.9%
3.2%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ST Johnstone goals (down), columns = Heart Of Midlothian goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.29
Rangers
2.05
Aberdeen
1.76
Kilmarnock
1.76
Hibernian
1.42
ST Johnstone
1.37
Motherwell
1.34
Heart Of Midlothian
1.34
Livingston
1.16
Hamilton
0.87
ST Mirren
0.84
Dundee
0.55
ST Johnstone is 0.03 points better than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of average points per game (1.37 vs 1.34).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.16
Celtic
2.03
Aberdeen
1.50
Hibernian
1.34
Kilmarnock
1.32
Motherwell
1.21
Livingston
1.11
Heart Of Midlothian
1.11
ST Johnstone
1.00
ST Mirren
0.89
Dundee
0.82
Hamilton
0.74
ST Johnstone is 0.11 goals worse than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.53
Rangers
0.71
Kilmarnock
0.82
Hibernian
1.03
Aberdeen
1.16
Livingston
1.16
ST Johnstone
1.26
Heart Of Midlothian
1.32
Motherwell
1.47
ST Mirren
1.74
Hamilton
1.97
Dundee
2.05
ST Johnstone is 0.05 goals better than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
ST Johnstone
For 4.2 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.0 · Against 13.6 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heart Of Midlothian
For 5.5 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 14.9 · Total 29.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Johnstone
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.8
9.3
3.6
3.6
3.6
22.6
21.8
23.4
vs Stronger (21)
11.6
13.0
10.3
3.8
3.6
3.9
22.0
21.2
22.7
vs Similar (29)
9.0
9.3
8.6
3.5
3.7
3.4
23.0
22.1
24.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
60%
44%
54%
56%
52%
52%
40%
64%
% under line
48%
40%
56%
46%
44%
48%
48%
60%
36%
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
8.8
10.6
4.1
4.3
4.0
26.5
26.5
26.5
vs Stronger (10)
10.2
9.2
11.2
3.9
4.0
3.8
26.0
23.2
28.8
vs Similar (14)
8.5
8.1
9.0
4.4
4.5
4.2
30.2
29.9
30.7
vs Weaker (26)
10.2
9.2
11.2
4.1
4.2
3.9
24.7
25.7
23.7
% over line
46%
46%
46%
54%
54%
54%
86%
88%
83%
% under line
54%
54%
54%
46%
46%
46%
14%
12%
17%
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dundee
11.2
Rangers
11.1
ST Mirren
10.7
Hibernian
10.6
Celtic
10.3
ST Johnstone
10.1
Kilmarnock
10.0
Motherwell
9.8
Aberdeen
9.7
Heart Of Midlothian
9.7
Livingston
9.7
Hamilton
9.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Rangers
4.5
Dundee
4.1
Hamilton
4.1
Heart Of Midlothian
4.1
Aberdeen
4.1
ST Mirren
3.9
Hibernian
3.9
Kilmarnock
3.9
Livingston
3.8
Celtic
3.6
ST Johnstone
3.6
Motherwell
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
26.5
Motherwell
26.3
Aberdeen
25.8
Rangers
25.7
Hamilton
25.2
Dundee
24.9
Kilmarnock
24.6
Livingston
24.5
Hibernian
24.4
ST Mirren
24.0
ST Johnstone
22.6
Celtic
22.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
52.7%
Under 9.5
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
51.3%
Under 3.5
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
77.1%
Under 21.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ST Johnstone
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.57
0.71
0.50
0.44
vs Stronger (11)
0.18
1.27
0.40
1.80
0.00
0.83
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.16
0.67
0.11
0.80
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.67
1.07
0.33
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.62
0.67
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.36
1.29
0.29
0.57
0.43
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ST Johnstone
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.57
0.36
0.75
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
1.00
0.40
0.80
0.67
1.17
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.53
0.67
0.11
0.80
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.33
0.47
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.88
0.33
0.67
0.60
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.25
0.62
0.40
0.60
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (14)
0.57
0.36
0.29
0.29
0.86
0.43
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
ST Johnstone · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ruari Paton33%
Cheick Diabate33%
Kai Fotheringham33%
Josh Fowler33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Jamie Gullan0%
Reece McAlear0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Liam Smith33%
Jamie Gullan33%
Cheick Diabate33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Josh Fowler0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sam Stanton33%
Jamie Gullan33%
Josh Fowler33%
Jason Holt0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Cheick Diabate0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jamie Gullan33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Cheick Diabate0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Josh Fowler0%
Heart Of Midlothian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
James Wilson50%
Calvin Miller33%
Josh McPake25%
Tom Renaud25%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Pierre Landry Kaboré17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Rogers Mato0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Amadou Ba-Sy33%
Pierre Landry Kaboré33%
Tomas Magnusson20%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Jordi Altena17%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cláudio Braga33%
Rogers Mato33%
Josh McPake25%
Sabah Kerjota25%
Blair Spittal17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cláudio Braga50%
Laurent Mendy33%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
ST Johnstone's squad is €17m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€5m vs €22m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
ST Johnstone's attack is €10m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€2m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
ST Johnstone's midfield is €3m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€1m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
ST Johnstone's defence is €4m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€2m vs €6m).
Scotland: Premiership 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Rangers
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
Hibernian
Motherwell
Livingston
ST Mirren
Dundee