ST Johnstone vs Heart Of Midlothian Result & Analysis

ST Johnstone’s defensive record is fragile, conceding 1.29 goals per game at home against stronger opposition, while their offense lags with just 0.57 goals. Heart Of Midlothian, on the road, have been more efficient, scoring 1.1 and conceding 0.9 against weaker teams. The model therefore favours an away win, with a 45% chance versus 24% for a home victory and 31% for a draw. The expected total is 2.2 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome that carries a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.2% chance. In terms of selections, the model predicts Over 19.5 fouls at 90%, Under 3.5 at 81.3%, Over 21.5 fouls at 80.5%, Over 2.5 cards at 77.4%, and Under 5.5 cards at 77.1%. These figures paint a tight, low-scoring encounter with the visitors slightly ahead.

The pre-match favourite, Heart Of Midlothian, did not come through, as the match finished 1-1, a draw that surprised the model’s prediction of an away win. The model had given the away side a 45% chance, but the result was a draw, so the pick was wrong. The model’s other selections all hit: Over 19.5 fouls at 90% probability, Under 3.5 at 81.3%, Over 21.5 fouls at 80.5%, and Over 2.5 cards at 77.4%, while Under 5.5 cards at 77.1% missed. Both teams’ recent form was mixed - ST Johnstone had two straight defeats, whereas Hearts remained unbeaten in five games. The final score of 1-1 matched the model’s most likely 2-goal total, but the outcome was a draw.