The model sees a 36% chance of a draw as the most likely outcome, with home and away win probabilities both at 28% and 36% respectively. The expected total goals is 1.8, and the single most likely scoreline is 0-0, with an 18.5% probability. ST Johnstone, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded, while Hearts, on the road to a weaker side, averages 1.17 goals scored and 0.67 conceded. The suggested picks include Under 3.5 at 89.7% and Under 2.5 at 74.0%, the latter offering a 15% edge. The market’s bias toward a higher total is at odds with the model’s expectation of a low-scoring draw, giving the model a clear edge in predicting a tight contest.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a Draw at 36 percent, did not materialise as ST Johnstone edged Heart Of Midlothian 2-1 for a home win. The model’s call was wrong, and the match proved a clear upset. Home form had been shaky, with the last five results listed as LLWDL and the club coming off two straight defeats before facing the Edinburgh side. In contrast, Hearts had been unbeaten in their last five, recording WDDWD, and had won their previous encounter 2-1. The model’s suggested picks were mixed: Under 3.5, with an 89.7 percent probability, hit, while Under 2.5, at 74 percent, missed.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
ST Johnstone win✓ Hit
28.3%
Avg Implied 22.3% · @ 4.23
Edge
+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
35.8%
Avg Implied 27.9% · @ 3.38
Edge
+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian win✗ Miss
35.9%
Avg Implied 49.7% · @ 1.90
Edge
-13.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
ST Johnstone
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.20
0.67
1.20
0.47
1.20
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
1.57
0.83
1.67
0.38
1.50
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.88
0.56
0.89
0.57
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.90
2.06
0.75
1.07
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
2.00
1.00
1.67
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (10)
1.70
0.70
2.00
0.60
1.40
0.80
vs Weaker (14)
1.93
0.57
2.50
0.50
1.17
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
54.0%
Under 1.5
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
26.0%
@ 2.32-14.7%
Under 2.5
74.0%
@ 1.59+14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
10.3%
Under 3.5
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
35.5%
No
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
18.5%
0-1
15.0%
1-1
14.6%
1-0
12.6%
0-2
7.7%
1-2
6.3%
2-0
5.7%
2-1 ✓
5.4%
ST Johnstone goals ↓
Heart Of Midlothian goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
18%
15%
7.7%
2.5%
0.6%
1
13%
15%
6.3%
2.0%
0.5%
2
5.7%
5.4%
2.6%
0.8%
0.2%
3
1.5%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
4
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ST Johnstone goals (down), columns = Heart Of Midlothian goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.45
Rangers
2.34
Heart Of Midlothian
1.61
Livingston
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.26
Motherwell
1.21
Hibernian
1.18
ST Mirren
1.16
Aberdeen
1.08
Ross County
1.08
ST Johnstone
0.92
Dundee
0.76
ST Johnstone is 0.68 points worse than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of average points per game (0.92 vs 1.61).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.42
Rangers
2.11
Heart Of Midlothian
1.42
Ross County
1.24
Motherwell
1.11
Aberdeen
1.08
Livingston
1.08
Hibernian
1.00
Dundee Utd
0.97
Dundee
0.89
ST Mirren
0.87
ST Johnstone
0.63
ST Johnstone is 0.79 goals worse than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of goals scored per game (0.63 vs 1.42).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.58
Rangers
0.82
Hibernian
1.11
Dundee Utd
1.16
Heart Of Midlothian
1.16
Aberdeen
1.21
Livingston
1.21
ST Mirren
1.34
ST Johnstone
1.34
Motherwell
1.61
Ross County
1.61
Dundee
1.68
ST Johnstone is 0.18 goals worse than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 1.16).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
ST Johnstone
For 4.6 · Against 6.4 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 9.9 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heart Of Midlothian
For 5.7 · Against 4.0 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 13.0 · Total 24.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Johnstone
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.4
9.3
3.8
3.9
3.7
24.6
25.1
24.2
vs Stronger (23)
9.5
10.5
8.6
4.0
4.0
3.9
23.7
25.2
22.3
vs Similar (27)
10.1
10.4
9.9
3.6
3.8
3.5
25.4
25.0
25.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
58%
62%
54%
58%
54%
62%
68%
75%
62%
% under line
42%
38%
46%
42%
46%
38%
32%
25%
38%
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.5
9.9
3.8
3.6
4.0
25.3
24.9
25.8
vs Stronger (6)
12.7
13.3
12.0
4.8
5.3
4.3
22.3
22.0
22.7
vs Similar (12)
11.1
12.3
9.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
26.0
26.5
25.5
vs Weaker (32)
9.4
9.4
9.5
3.6
3.2
4.0
25.6
24.8
26.5
% over line
58%
58%
58%
54%
46%
62%
78%
73%
83%
% under line
42%
42%
42%
46%
54%
38%
22%
27%
17%
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Celtic
11.5
Dundee
11.0
Rangers
11.0
Dundee Utd
10.7
Ross County
10.6
ST Mirren
10.5
Heart Of Midlothian
10.2
Motherwell
10.2
Hibernian
9.9
ST Johnstone
9.8
Aberdeen
9.5
Livingston
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Livingston
4.0
Rangers
3.9
Ross County
3.9
Aberdeen
3.8
ST Johnstone
3.8
Heart Of Midlothian
3.8
Motherwell
3.8
Dundee Utd
3.7
Dundee
3.6
Hibernian
3.6
ST Mirren
3.4
Celtic
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.8
Motherwell
26.3
Dundee
25.7
Heart Of Midlothian
25.3
Livingston
24.9
Ross County
24.6
ST Johnstone
24.6
Hibernian
24.4
ST Mirren
24.0
Dundee Utd
23.8
Rangers
23.2
Celtic
22.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ST Johnstone
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.47
0.40
0.40
0.33
0.53
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
0.50
0.33
0.50
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.33
0.43
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.40
1.06
0.31
0.43
0.50
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.17
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.20
0.60
0.20
vs Weaker (14)
1.00
0.21
1.38
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ST Johnstone
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
0.73
0.27
0.80
0.13
0.67
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
1.07
0.50
1.17
0.12
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.12
0.44
0.11
0.56
0.14
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.50
1.00
0.44
0.64
0.57
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.83
0.67
0.33
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.50
1.00
0.40
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.36
1.12
0.50
0.67
0.17
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
74.0%
1.59
-
-
-
-
-
+14.7%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
ST Johnstone · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ruari Paton33%
Cheick Diabate33%
Kai Fotheringham33%
Josh Fowler33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Jamie Gullan0%
Reece McAlear0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Liam Smith33%
Jamie Gullan33%
Cheick Diabate33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Josh Fowler0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sam Stanton33%
Jamie Gullan33%
Josh Fowler33%
Jason Holt0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Cheick Diabate0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jamie Gullan33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Cheick Diabate0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Josh Fowler0%
Heart Of Midlothian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
James Wilson50%
Calvin Miller33%
Josh McPake25%
Tom Renaud25%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Pierre Landry Kaboré17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Rogers Mato0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Amadou Ba-Sy33%
Pierre Landry Kaboré33%
Tomas Magnusson20%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Jordi Altena17%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cláudio Braga33%
Rogers Mato33%
Josh McPake25%
Sabah Kerjota25%
Blair Spittal17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cláudio Braga50%
Laurent Mendy33%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
ST Johnstone's squad is €17m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€5m vs €22m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
ST Johnstone's attack is €10m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€2m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
ST Johnstone's midfield is €3m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€1m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
ST Johnstone's defence is €4m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€2m vs €6m).
Scotland: Premiership 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Rangers
Livingston
Dundee Utd
Motherwell
Hibernian
ST Mirren
Aberdeen
Ross County
Dundee