PythiaFootballBETA
This highly anticipated match between ST Johnstone and Kilmarnock in the Scotland: Premiership is finely balanced, with the home side coming off a recent defeat against ST Mirren. ST Johnstone's home form against similar opponents has seen them score an average of 2 goals and concede 0.89, while Kilmarnock's away form against similar opponents has seen them score 1.33 goals and concede 1.89. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The model's selection is a home win, which it predicts with a probability of 38%.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 13%. The suggested picks include Over 1.5, which has a probability of 78.6% and an edge of 5%. The home side's home win percentage is 38%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 35%. The model also selects Over 1.5 as its selection, with 78.6% probability.
The win extends ST Johnstone's run, but this time it's a more convincing one. The final score was 4-3 in favour of the home team, sealing the actual result of a home win. The model correctly picked this outcome, giving it a pre-match probability of 38%. In line with the model's selection, ST Johnstone came out on top. The model's call was correct, as it predicted the home side's victory. The suggested picks also performed well, with "Over 1.5" goals hitting at 78.6% probability.
ST Johnstone| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.70 | 0.67 | 1.93 | 0.67 | 1.47 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.67 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.92 | 0.80 | 2.17 | 0.83 | 1.69 | 0.77 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Kilmarnock| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.30 | 1.90 | 1.64 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 2.25 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 0.81 | 2.38 | 1.00 | 1.57 | 0.67 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (14) | 1.86 | 1.36 | 2.29 | 1.43 | 1.43 | 1.29 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
| Kilmarnock goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 7.3% | 13% | 8.2% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 6.2% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 3.0% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
ST JohnstoneKilmarnockST Johnstone| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.4 | 10.0 | 10.7 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 21.7 | 24.3 | 19.1 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 11.0 | 10.0 | 11.7 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 22.6 | 24.0 | 21.7 |
| vs Similar (41) | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 21.2 | 24.4 | 17.2 |
| vs Weaker (4) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 57% | 57% | 57% | 22% | 28% | 16% | 57% | 71% | 43% |
| % under line | 43% | 43% | 43% | 78% | 72% | 84% | 43% | 29% | 57% |
Kilmarnock| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.6 | 9.1 | 10.2 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 24.4 | 25.5 | 23.4 |
| vs Stronger (24) | 10.0 | 9.3 | 10.8 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 23.5 | 24.1 | 23.0 |
| vs Similar (24) | 9.2 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 25.4 | 26.5 | 24.2 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 10.0 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 24.0 | 30.0 | 18.0 |
| % over line | 50% | 36% | 64% | 60% | 68% | 52% | 68% | 76% | 60% |
| % under line | 50% | 64% | 36% | 40% | 32% | 48% | 32% | 24% | 40% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 78.6% | 1.27 | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.28 | 1.28 | 1.28 | +4.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 72.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 15/02/25 | A | 3-1 | |
| 23/11/24 | H | 1-0 | |
| 11/08/24 | A | 0-3 | |
| 13/04/24 | H | 0-2 | |
| 23/12/23 | A | 2-1 | |
| 01/11/23 | H | 2-1 | |
| 20/05/23 | A | 0-1 |
ST Johnstone| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 01/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 24/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 24/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 21/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 0-0 |
Kilmarnock| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 12/05/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 28/02/26 | A | 5-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Celtic | 2 | 6 | 100% | 3.0 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 3.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 12.5 | 100% | 1.5 | 0% | 19.0 | 50% | 154 | 55 | 38 | 60 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 66% |
| 2 |  ST Mirren | 2 | 6 | 100% | 3.0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 1.5 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 10.5 | 50% | 3.5 | 50% | 27.5 | 50% | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 46% |
| 3 |  Motherwell | 2 | 4 | 50% | 2.0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 1.5 | 50% | 50% | 0% | 7.5 | 50% | 4.0 | 100% | 30.0 | 100% | 21 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 58% |
| 4 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 100% | 50% | 9.5 | 50% | 4.0 | 50% | 24.5 | 100% | 33 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 53% |
| 5 |  Dundee | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 1.5 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 | 50% | 3.0 | 50% | 18.5 | 0% | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 44% |
| 6 | ST Johnstone | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 4.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 8.0 | 0% | 3.5 | 50% | 19.0 | 0% | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 7 |  Hibernian | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 10.5 | 100% | 3.0 | 50% | 25.5 | 100% | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 47% |
| 8 |  Aberdeen | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | 9.5 | 50% | 4.5 | 100% | 24.0 | 50% | 24 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 9 |  Rangers | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | 12.5 | 100% | 3.0 | 50% | 27.0 | 100% | 127 | 59 | 28 | 40 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 58% |
| 10 |  Falkirk | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1.0 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 | 50% | 4.0 | 100% | 34.5 | 100% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 51% |
| 11 |  Dundee Utd | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 12.0 | 50% | 3.5 | 50% | 26.0 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 42% |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 6.5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 10.5 | 50% | 2.5 | 50% | 20.5 | 50% | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 42% |