The model sees Motherwell as the favourite, giving the away side a 44% chance of victory, a 34% chance of a draw and a 22% chance of a home win. The expected total is 1.9 goals, with the most likely total of two goals carrying a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 16.4% chance. ST Johnstone, playing at home against a team of similar strength, averages 0.89 goals scored and 0.44 conceded, while Motherwell, on the road, averages 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 90.5%, Under 3.5 at 87.6%, Under 5.5 cards at 86.5%, Over 21.5 fouls at 81.3%, Under 4.5 cards at 73.7%, and Under 2.5 at 70.6% with an edge of 12%. The recent form shows ST Johnstone struggling after two straight defeats, while Motherwell also came off two losses. This context explains why the model leans toward an away win despite the low overall goal expectation.
Results analysis
A surprising 1-1 draw saw the pre-match favourite, Motherwell, fall short of the model’s pick for an away win, which had a 44% probability. The result was a draw, the final score 1-1, and the model’s call was wrong. The model had also highlighted a 90.5% chance of Over 19.5 fouls, which hit, and an 87.6% chance of Under 3.5, which also hit. The Under 5.5 cards pick at 86.5% hit, as did the Over 21.5 fouls at 81.3%, the Under 4.5 cards at 73.7%, and the Under 2.5 at 70.6%. All selections settled in the match.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
ST Johnstone win✗ Miss
22.3%
Avg Implied 40.9% · @ 2.30
Edge
-18.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
33.5%
Avg Implied 29.0% · @ 3.24
Edge
+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Motherwell win✗ Miss
44.2%
Avg Implied 30.1% · @ 3.12
Edge
+14.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
ST Johnstone
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.13
0.88
1.06
0.86
1.21
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
1.60
0.86
1.86
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.90
0.90
0.89
0.44
0.91
1.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.27
1.33
1.60
1.00
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
3.33
0.50
3.75
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (21)
1.52
0.71
1.89
0.67
1.25
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
57.7%
Under 1.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
29.4%
@ 2.28-12.1%
Under 2.5
70.6%
@ 1.62+12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.4%
Under 3.5
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
37.0%
No
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.4%
0-1
16.1%
1-1 ✓
14.1%
0-2
10.0%
1-0
9.9%
1-2
7.4%
2-1
4.8%
2-0
4.1%
ST Johnstone goals ↓
Motherwell goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
16%
10%
3.8%
1.1%
1
9.9%
14%
7.4%
2.8%
0.8%
2
4.1%
4.8%
2.7%
1.1%
0.3%
3
1.0%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ST Johnstone goals (down), columns = Motherwell goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rangers
2.68
Celtic
2.03
Hibernian
1.66
Aberdeen
1.47
Livingston
1.18
ST Mirren
1.18
Motherwell
1.18
ST Johnstone
1.18
Dundee Utd
1.16
Ross County
1.03
Kilmarnock
0.95
Hamilton
0.79
ST Johnstone and Motherwell are level in average points per game (both 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.42
Celtic
2.05
Hibernian
1.26
Kilmarnock
1.13
Livingston
1.11
Motherwell
1.03
ST Mirren
0.97
Aberdeen
0.95
ST Johnstone
0.95
Ross County
0.92
Hamilton
0.89
Dundee Utd
0.84
ST Johnstone is 0.08 goals worse than Motherwell in terms of goals scored per game (0.95 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rangers
0.34
Celtic
0.76
Hibernian
0.92
Aberdeen
1.00
ST Mirren
1.18
ST Johnstone
1.21
Dundee Utd
1.32
Livingston
1.42
Kilmarnock
1.42
Motherwell
1.45
Ross County
1.74
Hamilton
1.76
ST Johnstone is 0.24 goals better than Motherwell in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.45).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
ST Johnstone
For 5.7 · Against 3.9 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 14.4 · Total 27.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Motherwell
For 5.9 · Against 5.1 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 0.9 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 12.2 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Johnstone
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.3
10.6
3.4
3.7
3.1
24.3
25.0
23.4
vs Stronger (16)
9.9
9.6
10.3
3.2
3.6
2.7
24.1
24.0
24.2
vs Similar (34)
9.9
9.2
10.6
3.5
3.7
3.3
24.4
25.6
23.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
33%
61%
50%
56%
43%
64%
63%
65%
% under line
54%
67%
39%
50%
44%
57%
36%
37%
35%
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.3
10.0
3.7
3.5
3.9
24.7
22.7
27.0
vs Stronger (9)
9.0
8.7
9.7
2.8
3.0
2.3
21.4
22.2
20.0
vs Similar (36)
10.3
10.6
10.1
3.8
3.6
4.1
25.3
22.9
28.0
vs Weaker (5)
10.8
12.0
10.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
26.2
22.5
28.7
% over line
60%
63%
57%
54%
48%
61%
78%
70%
87%
% under line
40%
37%
43%
46%
52%
39%
22%
30%
13%
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dundee Utd
11.6
Hamilton
11.6
Ross County
10.8
Rangers
10.7
Hibernian
10.6
Kilmarnock
10.5
ST Mirren
10.5
Celtic
10.2
Motherwell
10.1
ST Johnstone
9.9
Livingston
9.8
Aberdeen
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Kilmarnock
3.7
Motherwell
3.7
Hibernian
3.6
Ross County
3.5
Rangers
3.5
ST Johnstone
3.4
Aberdeen
3.4
Celtic
3.3
Dundee Utd
3.3
ST Mirren
3.1
Hamilton
3.1
Livingston
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.9
Kilmarnock
24.9
Motherwell
24.7
Hamilton
24.6
Ross County
24.5
ST Johnstone
24.3
Hibernian
24.1
Livingston
24.0
ST Mirren
23.6
Rangers
23.2
Dundee Utd
22.7
Celtic
21.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
57.5%
Under 9.5
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
45.0%
Under 3.5
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
81.3%
Under 21.5
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ST Johnstone
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.60
0.25
0.56
0.36
0.64
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
0.80
0.29
0.86
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (20)
0.30
0.50
0.22
0.33
0.36
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.67
0.60
0.73
0.47
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.75
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.95
0.33
1.00
0.22
0.92
0.42
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ST Johnstone
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.53
0.62
0.50
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.80
0.57
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.40
0.67
0.11
0.55
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.73
0.67
1.00
0.27
0.47
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.83
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.38
0.89
0.44
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
70.6%
1.62
-
-
-
-
-
+12.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
ST Johnstone · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ruari Paton33%
Cheick Diabate33%
Kai Fotheringham33%
Josh Fowler33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Jamie Gullan0%
Reece McAlear0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Liam Smith33%
Jamie Gullan33%
Cheick Diabate33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Josh Fowler0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sam Stanton33%
Jamie Gullan33%
Josh Fowler33%
Jason Holt0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Cheick Diabate0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jamie Gullan33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Cheick Diabate0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Josh Fowler0%
Motherwell · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lukas Fadinger25%
Regan Charles-Cook25%
Emmanuel Longelo25%
Ibrahim Said25%
Alex Paulsen0%
Alex Lowry0%
Martin Moormann0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tawanda Maswanhise0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lukas Fadinger75%
Martin Moormann33%
Tom Sparrow33%
Alex Lowry25%
Jamie Knight-Lebel25%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Emmanuel Longelo0%
Ibrahim Said0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tawanda Maswanhise0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Emmanuel Longelo25%
Ibrahim Said25%
Lukas Fadinger0%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Alex Lowry0%
Martin Moormann0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tawanda Maswanhise0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Lukas Fadinger25%
Tawanda Maswanhise25%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Alex Lowry0%
Emmanuel Longelo0%
Martin Moormann0%
Ibrahim Said0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
ST Johnstone's squad is €11m less valuable than Motherwell's (€5m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
ST Johnstone's attack is €7m less valuable than Motherwell's (€2m vs €10m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
ST Johnstone and Motherwell have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
ST Johnstone's defence is €3m less valuable than Motherwell's (€2m vs €5m).
Scotland: Premiership 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Rangers
Celtic
Hibernian
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
Livingston
Dundee Utd
Ross County
Kilmarnock