ST Johnstone vs Motherwell Result & Analysis

ST Johnstone face Motherwell in a match where the model favours an away win at 39%. The home side has a 26% chance of victory, a 35% chance of a draw, and the away side’s 39% edge is the strongest. The expected total of 1.8 goals points to a tight affair, with the most likely scoreline 0-0 at 17.7%. ST Johnstone, playing at home against a similarly-sized opponent, average 0.62 goals scored and 0.38 conceded, while Motherwell, away, average 1.18 scored and 1.09 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Under 3.5 goals at 89%, Under 5.5 cards at 88.5%, Over 19.5 fouls at 87.2%, Under 4.5 cards at 76.5%, Over 21.5 fouls at 76.1%, Under 11.5 corners at 72.9% and Under 2.5 at 72.9% with a 15% edge. The market’s view diverges most on the away win, where the model’s 39% probability reflects Motherwell’s higher scoring rate and a slightly better defensive record than the home side.

The match ended in a 1-1 draw, a shock that left the pre-match favourite Motherwell, who had been tipped to win with a 39% chance, on the wrong side of the scoreline. The model’s call was therefore incorrect. The game saw the Under 3.5 goals pick hit, as did the Under 5.5 cards, Over 19.5 fouls, Under 4.5 cards, and Over 21.5 fouls selections, all with high probabilities of 89%, 88.5%, 87.2%, 76.5% and 76.1% respectively. The Under 11.5 corners pick missed, while the Under 2.5 goals selection, with a 72.9% probability and a 15% edge, also hit. The final score matched the most likely 2-goal outcome, but the draw was the actual result.