The contest between ST Johnstone and Motherwell is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win at 39%. Draws sit at 31% and the away side 30%. The most likely result is a 1-1 scoreline, a 14.5% chance, while the average goal total is 2.3, with the single most probable total of two goals at 28%. ST Johnstone, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.89 goals scored and 1.33 conceded, whereas Motherwell, on the road, averages 1.09 scored and 1.45 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.6%), Under 5.5 (96.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.2%), Under 4.5 (91.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (90.7%) and Home +2 handicap (87.8%). Both sides have recently struggled, each losing two straight games, and the last match for each saw a narrow defeat. The match promises a cautious, low-scoring affair, with the home side’s slight edge making a 1-0 win the most plausible outcome.
Results analysis
The win for ST Johnstone extends a run that has seen them slip into two straight defeats, yet they finally broke the streak with a 1-0 victory over Motherwell, who also finished a winless sequence. The model’s favourite, a home win, came through, with a pre-match probability of 39%. The expected total of 2.3 goals and the most likely score of 1-1 were not realised, but the final 1-0 result matched the actual outcome. Every suggested pick hit: Under 7.5 at 99.7%, Under 6.5 at 99.0%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.6%, Under 5.5 at 96.9%, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.2%, Under 4.5 at 91.4%, Away under 2.5 goals at 90.7%, and Home +2 handicap at 87.8%. The model’s selections proved remarkably accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
ST Johnstone win✓ Hit
39.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Motherwell win✗ Miss
30.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
ST Johnstone
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.87
1.43
1.71
1.19
2.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
2.33
0.60
2.40
0.43
2.29
vs Similar (17)
1.82
1.59
1.89
1.33
1.75
1.88
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.40
1.38
1.19
1.14
1.64
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
2.60
1.00
2.33
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (23)
1.22
1.22
1.33
1.00
1.09
1.45
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
0.50
3.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.6%
Under 1.5
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.8%
Under 2.5
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.4%
Under 3.5
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.1%
No
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.2%
1-0 ✓
11.0%
0-1
9.2%
2-1
8.2%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
7.0%
0-2
5.6%
ST Johnstone goals ↓
Motherwell goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.2%
5.6%
2.0%
0.5%
1
11%
14%
7.0%
2.5%
0.7%
2
7.7%
8.2%
4.4%
1.6%
0.4%
3
3.2%
3.4%
1.8%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.0%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ST Johnstone goals (down), columns = Motherwell goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Clachnacuddin
3.00
Formartine United
3.00
Cumnock Juniors
3.00
Celtic
2.60
Musselburgh Athletic
2.40
Clydebank
2.40
Jeanfield Swifts
2.33
Cowdenbeath
2.33
Irvine Meadow
2.25
Bo'ness Athletic
2.25
ST Johnstone
2.25
Aberdeen
2.20
Dundonald Bluebell
2.00
Stranraer
2.00
Buckie Thistle
2.00
Cove Rangers
2.00
Dunfermline
2.00
Falkirk
2.00
Dundee
2.00
East Kilbride
2.00
Montrose
2.00
Banks O' Dee
2.00
Bo'ness United
2.00
Lochee United
2.00
ST Mirren
2.00
Turriff United
2.00
Camelon Juniors
2.00
Hamilton Academical
2.00
Threave Rovers
2.00
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
2.00
Hibernian
2.00
Stirling
2.00
Airdrie United
2.00
Heart Of Midlothian
2.00
Auchinleck Talbot
2.00
Ayr Utd
2.00
Sauchie Juniors
2.00
Fraserburgh
1.75
Broxburn Athletic
1.75
Dundee North End
1.75
Brechin
1.75
Burntisland Shipyard
1.50
Rutherglen Glencairn
1.50
Darvel
1.50
Cupar Hearts
1.50
Dumbarton
1.50
Newtongrange Star
1.50
Dalkeith Thistle
1.50
Carluke Rovers
1.50
Rangers
1.50
Berwick Rangers
1.50
Dunbar United
1.50
Civil Service Strollers
1.50
Caledonian Braves
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.50
Girvan
1.50
Vale of Leithen
1.50
Whitehill Welfare
1.50
Peterhead
1.50
Culter
1.50
Tynecastle
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Forfar
1.33
Livingston
1.33
Elgin
1.33
Queen's Park
1.25
Partick
1.00
Clyde
1.00
Wick Academy
1.00
Ross County
1.00
Inverurie Loco Works
1.00
Raith Rovers
0.50
Huntly
0.50
Edinburgh City
0.50
Keith
0.50
St. Cuthbert Wanderers
0.00
St Andrews United
0.00
Inverness CT
0.00
Spartans
0.00
Invergordon
0.00
Beith
0.00
East Fife
0.00
Glasgow University
0.00
Albion Rovers
0.00
Annan Athletic
0.00
Benburb
0.00
Kilmarnock
0.00
Gretna 2008
0.00
Cumbernauld Colts
0.00
Strathspey Thistle
0.00
Easthouses Lily
0.00
Wigtown & Bladnoch
0.00
Deveronvale
0.00
Dalbeattie Star
0.00
Morton
0.00
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
0.00
Preston Athletic
0.00
Coldstream
0.00
Lothian Hutchison
0.00
Motherwell
0.00
Rothes
0.00
BSC Glasgow
0.00
Alloa Athletic
0.00
Dundee Utd
0.00
Forres Mechanics
0.00
Newton Stewart
0.00
Golspie Sutherland
0.00
Kelty Hearts
0.00
Creetown
0.00
Penicuik Athletic
0.00
Pollok
0.00
Nairn County
0.00
Haddington Athletic
0.00
Edinburgh University
0.00
Stirling University
0.00
Kilwinning Rangers
0.00
Tranent Juniors
0.00
Fort William
0.00
Blackburn United
0.00
Hawick Royal Albert
0.00
East Stirlingshire
0.00
Bonnyton Thistle
0.00
Glenafton Athletic
0.00
Arbroath
0.00
Tayport
0.00
Dunipace
0.00
Gala Fairydean Rovers
0.00
ST Johnstone is 2.25 points better than Motherwell in terms of average points per game (2.25 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Girvan
5.00
Threave Rovers
4.00
Stirling
4.00
Peterhead
4.00
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
3.67
Camelon Juniors
3.50
Lochee United
3.33
Ayr Utd
3.33
Cupar Hearts
3.00
Clachnacuddin
3.00
Cumnock Juniors
3.00
Celtic
3.00
Tynecastle
3.00
Clydebank
3.00
Fraserburgh
2.75
Sauchie Juniors
2.67
Irvine Meadow
2.50
Rangers
2.50
Montrose
2.50
Stenhousemuir
2.50
Culter
2.50
Aberdeen
2.40
Bo'ness United
2.33
Bo'ness Athletic
2.25
Heart Of Midlothian
2.25
Dundonald Bluebell
2.00
Stranraer
2.00
Rutherglen Glencairn
2.00
Dumbarton
2.00
Newtongrange Star
2.00
Falkirk
2.00
Dundee
2.00
Berwick Rangers
2.00
East Kilbride
2.00
Partick
2.00
Deveronvale
2.00
Huntly
2.00
Dundee North End
2.00
ST Mirren
2.00
Jeanfield Swifts
2.00
Cowdenbeath
2.00
Preston Athletic
2.00
Formartine United
2.00
Alloa Athletic
2.00
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Wick Academy
2.00
Vale of Leithen
2.00
Airdrie United
2.00
Ross County
2.00
Auchinleck Talbot
2.00
East Stirlingshire
2.00
Glenafton Athletic
2.00
Dunfermline
1.67
Livingston
1.67
Hamilton Academical
1.67
Musselburgh Athletic
1.60
Burntisland Shipyard
1.50
Broxburn Athletic
1.50
Darvel
1.50
Carluke Rovers
1.50
Civil Service Strollers
1.50
Brechin
1.50
Caledonian Braves
1.50
Queen's Park
1.50
Buckie Thistle
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.33
Elgin
1.33
Hibernian
1.33
Spartans
1.00
Beith
1.00
Dunbar United
1.00
Forfar
1.00
Banks O' Dee
1.00
Albion Rovers
1.00
Kilmarnock
1.00
Clyde
1.00
Turriff United
1.00
Dalbeattie Star
1.00
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
1.00
Edinburgh City
1.00
Forres Mechanics
1.00
Whitehill Welfare
1.00
Creetown
1.00
Pollok
1.00
Nairn County
1.00
Haddington Athletic
1.00
Edinburgh University
1.00
Inverurie Loco Works
1.00
Tayport
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Dunipace
1.00
ST Johnstone
0.75
Dalkeith Thistle
0.50
Raith Rovers
0.50
Keith
0.50
St. Cuthbert Wanderers
0.00
St Andrews United
0.00
Inverness CT
0.00
Invergordon
0.00
East Fife
0.00
Glasgow University
0.00
Annan Athletic
0.00
Benburb
0.00
Gretna 2008
0.00
Cumbernauld Colts
0.00
Strathspey Thistle
0.00
Easthouses Lily
0.00
Wigtown & Bladnoch
0.00
Morton
0.00
Coldstream
0.00
Lothian Hutchison
0.00
Motherwell
0.00
Rothes
0.00
BSC Glasgow
0.00
Dundee Utd
0.00
Newton Stewart
0.00
Golspie Sutherland
0.00
Penicuik Athletic
0.00
Stirling University
0.00
Kilwinning Rangers
0.00
Tranent Juniors
0.00
Fort William
0.00
Blackburn United
0.00
Hawick Royal Albert
0.00
Bonnyton Thistle
0.00
Arbroath
0.00
Gala Fairydean Rovers
0.00
ST Johnstone is 0.75 goals better than Motherwell in terms of goals scored per game (0.75 vs 0.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Formartine United
0.00
Ayr Utd
0.33
Celtic
0.40
Newtongrange Star
0.50
Rangers
0.50
Turriff United
0.50
Camelon Juniors
0.50
Aberdeen
0.60
Banks O' Dee
0.67
Jeanfield Swifts
0.67
Hibernian
0.67
Dundee North End
0.75
Clydebank
0.80
Dundonald Bluebell
1.00
Musselburgh Athletic
1.00
Buckie Thistle
1.00
Darvel
1.00
Cove Rangers
1.00
Carluke Rovers
1.00
Falkirk
1.00
Dundee
1.00
East Fife
1.00
Livingston
1.00
Clyde
1.00
ST Mirren
1.00
Hamilton Academical
1.00
Clachnacuddin
1.00
Caledonian Braves
1.00
Motherwell
1.00
BSC Glasgow
1.00
Cumnock Juniors
1.00
Dundee Utd
1.00
Stirling
1.00
Penicuik Athletic
1.00
Heart Of Midlothian
1.00
Inverurie Loco Works
1.00
Auchinleck Talbot
1.00
Blackburn United
1.00
Bonnyton Thistle
1.00
Culter
1.00
Arbroath
1.00
Sauchie Juniors
1.00
Gala Fairydean Rovers
1.00
ST Johnstone
1.25
Dunfermline
1.33
East Kilbride
1.33
Forfar
1.33
Cowdenbeath
1.33
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
1.33
Fraserburgh
1.50
Stranraer
1.50
Rutherglen Glencairn
1.50
Berwick Rangers
1.50
Civil Service Strollers
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.50
Edinburgh City
1.50
Girvan
1.50
Whitehill Welfare
1.50
Tynecastle
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Bo'ness United
1.67
Airdrie United
1.67
Brechin
1.75
Inverness CT
2.00
Cupar Hearts
2.00
Spartans
2.00
Dalkeith Thistle
2.00
Irvine Meadow
2.00
Dunbar United
2.00
Montrose
2.00
Partick
2.00
Albion Rovers
2.00
Annan Athletic
2.00
Kilmarnock
2.00
Gretna 2008
2.00
Bo'ness Athletic
2.00
Dalbeattie Star
2.00
Morton
2.00
Threave Rovers
2.00
Lothian Hutchison
2.00
Elgin
2.00
Queen's Park
2.00
Keith
2.00
Forres Mechanics
2.00
Golspie Sutherland
2.00
Wick Academy
2.00
Ross County
2.00
Stirling University
2.00
Kilwinning Rangers
2.00
Dunipace
2.00
Broxburn Athletic
2.25
Burntisland Shipyard
2.50
Huntly
2.50
Lochee United
2.67
Beith
3.00
Benburb
3.00
Raith Rovers
3.00
Cumbernauld Colts
3.00
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
3.00
Preston Athletic
3.00
Alloa Athletic
3.00
Newton Stewart
3.00
Kelty Hearts
3.00
Vale of Leithen
3.00
Creetown
3.00
Pollok
3.00
Nairn County
3.00
Edinburgh University
3.00
Peterhead
3.00
East Stirlingshire
3.00
Tayport
3.00
Dumbarton
3.50
Invergordon
4.00
Glasgow University
4.00
Easthouses Lily
4.00
Wigtown & Bladnoch
4.00
Deveronvale
4.00
Haddington Athletic
4.00
Tranent Juniors
4.00
Hawick Royal Albert
4.00
Glenafton Athletic
4.00
Strathspey Thistle
6.00
Coldstream
6.00
St Andrews United
7.00
Rothes
8.00
Fort William
8.00
St. Cuthbert Wanderers
9.00
ST Johnstone is 0.25 goals worse than Motherwell in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
ST Johnstone
For 2.4 · Against 8.3 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 11.2 · Total 20.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Motherwell
For 3.7 · Against 7.2 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 11.9 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Johnstone
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.0
10.6
3.7
3.8
3.5
21.9
22.2
21.6
vs Stronger (22)
11.3
10.4
12.1
3.6
3.9
3.3
21.2
21.8
20.7
vs Similar (27)
9.5
9.7
9.4
3.9
3.8
3.9
22.5
22.6
22.4
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
53%
43%
62%
54%
70%
41%
51%
52%
50%
% under line
47%
57%
38%
46%
30%
59%
49%
48%
50%
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
9.8
12.5
3.7
3.3
4.1
22.0
22.5
21.5
vs Stronger (8)
10.6
9.5
12.0
3.6
3.6
3.7
20.6
22.0
18.7
vs Similar (40)
11.3
9.8
12.6
3.9
3.5
4.3
22.3
22.6
21.9
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
65%
52%
77%
50%
46%
54%
56%
62%
50%
% under line
35%
48%
23%
50%
54%
46%
44%
38%
50%
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Celtic
12.6
Rangers
11.5
Ross County
11.4
Arbroath
11.3
Hibernian
11.2
Dumbarton
11.2
Motherwell
11.1
Falkirk
11.0
Kilmarnock
10.9
Kelty Hearts
10.9
Heart Of Midlothian
10.9
Aberdeen
10.8
Morton
10.8
Dunfermline
10.8
Dundee Utd
10.7
Stirling
10.6
Dundee
10.6
ST Mirren
10.4
Airdrie United
10.3
ST Johnstone
10.2
Montrose
10.0
Brechin
10.0
Stranraer
10.0
Inverness CT
10.0
Partick
10.0
Cove Rangers
9.9
Forfar
9.8
Edinburgh City
9.8
Annan Athletic
9.8
Stenhousemuir
9.7
Clyde
9.6
East Fife
9.5
Cowdenbeath
9.4
Livingston
9.4
Spartans
9.2
Elgin
8.9
Peterhead
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Peterhead
5.2
Aberdeen
4.7
Morton
4.6
Dundee Utd
4.4
Annan Athletic
4.4
Motherwell
4.3
Edinburgh City
4.3
Elgin
4.3
ST Johnstone
4.3
Hibernian
4.2
Heart Of Midlothian
4.2
Kilmarnock
4.2
Stirling
4.2
Dundee
4.1
Falkirk
4.1
Livingston
4.0
Forfar
4.0
Rangers
4.0
Montrose
3.9
Cowdenbeath
3.9
Dumbarton
3.9
Stranraer
3.9
ST Mirren
3.9
Stenhousemuir
3.8
Clyde
3.8
East Fife
3.8
Dunfermline
3.7
Ross County
3.7
Partick
3.6
Spartans
3.6
Arbroath
3.5
Brechin
3.5
Kelty Hearts
3.4
Celtic
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Inverness CT
3.0
Cove Rangers
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
24.9
Elgin
24.7
Aberdeen
24.5
Forfar
24.4
Livingston
23.4
Edinburgh City
23.1
Morton
22.7
Stenhousemuir
22.6
East Fife
22.5
Kilmarnock
22.1
Spartans
22.0
Motherwell
22.0
Cowdenbeath
21.9
Clyde
21.8
ST Johnstone
21.8
Falkirk
21.7
Ross County
21.5
ST Mirren
21.5
Heart Of Midlothian
21.3
Annan Athletic
21.3
Stirling
21.3
Kelty Hearts
21.2
Dundee Utd
21.1
Rangers
21.0
Montrose
21.0
Hibernian
20.9
Arbroath
20.6
Brechin
20.4
Dundee
19.8
Inverness CT
19.6
Stranraer
19.6
Partick
19.5
Dunfermline
19.4
Airdrie United
19.4
Dumbarton
19.4
Celtic
19.3
Cove Rangers
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
59.9%
Under 9.5
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
71.4%
Under 3.5
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
69.0%
Under 21.5
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ST Johnstone or Draw✓ Hit
69.8%
Avg Implied -
39%
31%
30%
covers ST Johnstone + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone or Motherwell✓ Hit
69.3%
Avg Implied -
39%
31%
30%
covers ST Johnstone + Motherwell
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Motherwell✗ Miss
61.0%
Avg Implied -
39%
31%
30%
covers Draw + Motherwell
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.3%
Under
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.4%
Under
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.1%
Under
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
65.7%
Under
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
29.0%
Under
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.3%
Under
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to ST Johnstone, so a minus line means ST Johnstone give that many goals of a start and Motherwell receive them. At -1, ST Johnstone must win by two or more to land; a one-goal ST Johnstone win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (ST Johnstone)Actual: Motherwell
ST Johnstone -2
6.1%
Draw -2
11.7%
Motherwell +2
82.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (ST Johnstone)Actual: Draw
ST Johnstone -1
17.8%
Draw -1
21.2%
Motherwell +1
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (ST Johnstone)Actual: ST Johnstone
ST Johnstone +1
69.8%
Draw +1
18.0%
Motherwell -1
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (ST Johnstone)Actual: ST Johnstone
ST Johnstone +2
87.8%
Draw +2
8.6%
Motherwell -2
3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ST Johnstone
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.77
0.64
0.79
0.50
0.75
vs Stronger (12)
0.17
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.14
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.65
0.89
0.67
0.75
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
1.00
0.38
0.43
0.64
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.80
1.00
0.33
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.48
1.00
0.42
0.36
0.55
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ST Johnstone
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.10
0.79
0.93
0.69
1.25
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
1.33
0.40
1.40
0.29
1.29
vs Similar (17)
1.00
0.94
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.25
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.90
0.38
0.81
0.71
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.80
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.74
0.33
0.58
0.73
0.91
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
ST Johnstone
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Elliot Watt25%
Makenzie Kirk23%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka19%
Nicky Clark17%
Daniels Balodis15%
Božo Mikulić14%
Graham Carey12%
Josh McPake8%
Taylor Steven7%
Adama Sidibeh6%
Jack Sanders5%
Drey Wright3%
Sven Sprangler0%
Víctor Griffith0%
Barry Douglas0%
Jason Holt0%
Matthew Smith0%
Uche Ikpeazu0%
Ross Sinclair0%
Cameron MacPherson0%
Jonathan Svedberg0%
Andrew Fisher0%
Kyle Cameron0%
David Keltjens0%
Joshua Rae0%
Stephen Duke-McKenna0%
Lewis Neilson0%
Sam Curtis0%
André Raymond0%
Maksym Kucheriavyi0%
Aaron Essel0%
Franio Franczak0%
Zach Mitchell0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Uche Ikpeazu50%
Cameron MacPherson43%
Aaron Essel33%
André Raymond29%
Jason Holt29%
Sven Sprangler27%
Elliot Watt25%
Maksym Kucheriavyi25%
Jonathan Svedberg20%
Barry Douglas19%
Jack Sanders18%
Lewis Neilson18%
Adama Sidibeh13%
Zach Mitchell12%
Matthew Smith10%
Víctor Griffith9%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka8%
Sam Curtis8%
Andrew Fisher7%
Joshua Rae7%
Taylor Steven7%
Nicky Clark7%
Drey Wright6%
Graham Carey3%
Makenzie Kirk3%
Božo Mikulić0%
Ross Sinclair0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Kyle Cameron0%
David Keltjens0%
Josh McPake0%
Stephen Duke-McKenna0%
Franio Franczak0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Maksym Kucheriavyi25%
Jonathan Svedberg20%
Josh McPake15%
Elliot Watt12%
André Raymond12%
Graham Carey9%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka8%
Sam Curtis8%
Nicky Clark7%
Aaron Essel7%
Adama Sidibeh6%
Matthew Smith5%
Jack Sanders5%
Makenzie Kirk3%
Sven Sprangler0%
Víctor Griffith0%
Božo Mikulić0%
Barry Douglas0%
Jason Holt0%
Uche Ikpeazu0%
Ross Sinclair0%
Drey Wright0%
Cameron MacPherson0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Andrew Fisher0%
Kyle Cameron0%
David Keltjens0%
Joshua Rae0%
Stephen Duke-McKenna0%
Lewis Neilson0%
Taylor Steven0%
Franio Franczak0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Uche Ikpeazu50%
Adama Sidibeh26%
Makenzie Kirk17%
Elliot Watt12%
Stephen Duke-McKenna9%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka8%
Josh McPake8%
Nicky Clark3%
Drey Wright3%
Sven Sprangler0%
Víctor Griffith0%
Božo Mikulić0%
Barry Douglas0%
Jason Holt0%
Graham Carey0%
Matthew Smith0%
Ross Sinclair0%
Cameron MacPherson0%
Jonathan Svedberg0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Andrew Fisher0%
Kyle Cameron0%
David Keltjens0%
Joshua Rae0%
Jack Sanders0%
Lewis Neilson0%
Sam Curtis0%
André Raymond0%
Maksym Kucheriavyi0%
Taylor Steven0%
Aaron Essel0%
Franio Franczak0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Motherwell
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Callum Slattery33%
Apostolos Stamatelopoulos25%
Luke Armstrong21%
Tom Sparrow19%
Tawanda Maswanhise17%
Moses Ebiye11%
Paul McGinn10%
Zach Robinson8%
Andy Halliday8%
Dan Casey6%
Liam Gordon4%
Tony Watt4%
Stephen O'Donnell3%
Ewan Wilson3%
Lennon Miller3%
Johnny Koutroumbis0%
Davor Zdravkovski0%
Aston Oxborough0%
Ellery Balcombe0%
Shane Blaney0%
Steve Seddon0%
Harrison Paton0%
Sam Nicholson0%
Kofi Balmer0%
Dominic Thompson0%
Jair Tavares0%
Jack Vale0%
Luke Plange0%
Marvin Kaleta0%
Will Dickson0%
Kai Andrews0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Shane Blaney27%
Callum Slattery27%
Stephen O'Donnell24%
Andy Halliday21%
Apostolos Stamatelopoulos19%
Tom Sparrow19%
Jack Vale17%
Lennon Miller16%
Kofi Balmer15%
Steve Seddon14%
Harrison Paton14%
Dominic Thompson13%
Tawanda Maswanhise13%
Dan Casey12%
Davor Zdravkovski12%
Liam Gordon11%
Sam Nicholson11%
Tony Watt11%
Paul McGinn10%
Ewan Wilson10%
Zach Robinson8%
Luke Armstrong7%
Marvin Kaleta5%
Johnny Koutroumbis0%
Aston Oxborough0%
Ellery Balcombe0%
Moses Ebiye0%
Jair Tavares0%
Luke Plange0%
Will Dickson0%
Kai Andrews0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lennon Miller22%
Harrison Paton14%
Dominic Thompson13%
Tawanda Maswanhise10%
Marvin Kaleta10%
Ellery Balcombe8%
Tony Watt7%
Callum Slattery7%
Apostolos Stamatelopoulos6%
Dan Casey6%
Andy Halliday5%
Kofi Balmer5%
Moses Ebiye4%
Liam Gordon4%
Stephen O'Donnell3%
Tom Sparrow3%
Johnny Koutroumbis0%
Davor Zdravkovski0%
Aston Oxborough0%
Shane Blaney0%
Luke Armstrong0%
Steve Seddon0%
Paul McGinn0%
Sam Nicholson0%
Jair Tavares0%
Jack Vale0%
Zach Robinson0%
Luke Plange0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Will Dickson0%
Kai Andrews0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Callum Slattery27%
Apostolos Stamatelopoulos12%
Lennon Miller12%
Dan Casey12%
Tawanda Maswanhise10%
Moses Ebiye7%
Steve Seddon7%
Tony Watt7%
Tom Sparrow3%
Andy Halliday0%
Johnny Koutroumbis0%
Davor Zdravkovski0%
Aston Oxborough0%
Ellery Balcombe0%
Shane Blaney0%
Luke Armstrong0%
Stephen O'Donnell0%
Liam Gordon0%
Paul McGinn0%
Harrison Paton0%
Sam Nicholson0%
Kofi Balmer0%
Dominic Thompson0%
Jair Tavares0%
Jack Vale0%
Zach Robinson0%
Luke Plange0%
Marvin Kaleta0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Will Dickson0%
Kai Andrews0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
KH (4)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
ST Johnstone's squad is €11m less valuable than Motherwell's (€5m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
ST Johnstone's attack is €7m less valuable than Motherwell's (€2m vs €10m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
ST Johnstone and Motherwell have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
ST Johnstone's defence is €3m less valuable than Motherwell's (€2m vs €5m).
Scotland: Premiership 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Rangers
Hibernian
Dundee Utd
Aberdeen
Heart Of Midlothian
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
Dundee
Ross County
Livingston
Ayr Utd
Partick