This opponent (Aberdeen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aberdeen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.67
1.31
1.38
1.21
2.00
vs Stronger (9)
1.44
2.00
1.50
1.25
1.40
2.60
vs Similar (13)
1.08
1.85
1.33
1.67
0.86
2.00
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
1.00
1.17
1.17
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.8%
Under 1.5
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.5%
@ 2.03-3.1%
Under 2.5
56.5%
@ 1.77+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.5%
Under 3.5
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.4%
No
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-0
12.4%
2-0
10.4%
0-0
10.1%
2-1 ✓
9.3%
0-1
6.7%
1-2
5.4%
3-0
5.3%
ST Mirren goals ↓
Aberdeen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
6.7%
3.5%
1.0%
0.2%
1
12%
13%
5.4%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
9.3%
4.1%
1.2%
0.3%
3
5.3%
4.7%
2.1%
0.6%
0.1%
4
2.0%
1.8%
0.8%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ST Mirren goals (down), columns = Aberdeen goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.45
Rangers
2.24
Heart Of Midlothian
1.79
Partick
1.75
Kilmarnock
1.47
Aberdeen
1.26
ST Mirren
1.24
Hibernian
1.21
Motherwell
1.13
Dundee
1.11
Ross County
1.02
ST Johnstone
0.92
Raith Rovers
0.75
Livingston
0.66
Airdrie United
0.50
ST Mirren is 0.03 points worse than Aberdeen in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 1.26).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.50
Rangers
2.29
Partick
1.75
Airdrie United
1.50
Motherwell
1.47
Heart Of Midlothian
1.42
Hibernian
1.37
Dundee
1.29
Aberdeen
1.26
ST Mirren
1.21
Kilmarnock
1.21
Ross County
1.10
Raith Rovers
1.00
Livingston
0.76
ST Johnstone
0.76
ST Mirren is 0.05 goals worse than Aberdeen in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.79
Rangers
0.84
Heart Of Midlothian
1.11
Kilmarnock
1.16
ST Mirren
1.37
Aberdeen
1.37
ST Johnstone
1.42
Partick
1.50
Motherwell
1.55
Hibernian
1.55
Ross County
1.70
Dundee
1.79
Livingston
1.84
Airdrie United
2.00
Raith Rovers
2.25
ST Mirren and Aberdeen are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.37).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
69%
Rangers
63%
Heart Of Midlothian
55%
Hibernian
53%
Aberdeen
49%
Motherwell
46%
ST Mirren
45%
Kilmarnock
45%
Ross County
44%
Dundee
44%
ST Johnstone
44%
Livingston
43%
ST Mirren is 3.7 percentage points worse than Aberdeen in terms of average possession (45% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
ST Mirren
For 4.8 · Against 6.4 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 10.9 · Total 20.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aberdeen
For 4.4 · Against 5.7 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 13.3 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Mirren
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
9.9
11.4
1.9
1.8
1.9
21.4
19.9
22.9
vs Stronger (25)
11.2
9.3
13.0
1.7
1.7
1.7
21.5
21.0
22.0
vs Similar (25)
10.2
10.2
10.2
2.0
1.9
2.1
21.4
19.1
23.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
68%
64%
71%
28%
22%
33%
46%
43%
50%
% under line
32%
36%
29%
72%
78%
67%
54%
57%
50%
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aberdeen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.3
10.8
3.0
2.7
3.2
23.4
22.7
24.1
vs Stronger (14)
11.5
10.6
12.4
2.4
2.5
2.2
18.7
19.0
18.4
vs Similar (21)
10.8
10.7
10.9
3.4
3.3
3.5
26.1
26.0
26.1
vs Weaker (15)
9.3
9.7
8.8
2.9
2.1
4.2
24.1
22.0
27.2
% over line
66%
61%
71%
46%
42%
50%
63%
56%
71%
% under line
34%
39%
29%
54%
58%
50%
37%
44%
29%
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Celtic
11.6
Ross County
11.1
Dundee
11.1
ST Mirren
10.9
Kilmarnock
10.6
Heart Of Midlothian
10.6
Aberdeen
10.4
Hibernian
10.3
ST Johnstone
10.3
Motherwell
10.3
Rangers
10.3
Partick
10.0
Airdrie United
9.9
Livingston
9.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Heart Of Midlothian
4.5
Hibernian
4.5
Rangers
4.4
Aberdeen
4.3
Motherwell
4.0
Livingston
4.0
Ross County
4.0
ST Johnstone
3.9
Dundee
3.9
Kilmarnock
3.8
Celtic
3.6
Partick
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
ST Mirren
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
24.8
Motherwell
24.3
Livingston
24.1
Kilmarnock
23.6
Heart Of Midlothian
23.4
Ross County
23.4
Hibernian
23.3
ST Johnstone
22.7
Rangers
21.6
ST Mirren
21.6
Dundee
21.1
Partick
20.4
Celtic
19.2
Airdrie United
18.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
61.6%
Under 9.5
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
50.8%
Under 3.5
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
50.0%
Under 21.5
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ST Mirren
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.40
0.53
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
0.86
0.14
1.00
1.00
0.71
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.38
0.62
0.12
0.12
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aberdeen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.56
0.50
0.64
0.79
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
0.56
0.50
0.00
0.80
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.85
0.50
0.83
0.43
0.86
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.38
0.67
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ST Mirren
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.80
0.53
0.40
0.73
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
0.93
0.57
1.00
0.43
0.86
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.38
1.00
0.12
0.38
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aberdeen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.03
0.75
0.88
0.57
1.21
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
1.44
1.00
1.25
0.60
1.60
vs Similar (13)
0.62
1.00
0.83
0.83
0.43
1.14
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
0.62
0.50
0.67
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
ST Mirren
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mikael Mandron20%
Mark O'Hara18%
Toyosi Olusanya17%
Jonah Ayunga12%
Greg Kiltie12%
Stav Nachmani11%
Alex Greive11%
James Scott9%
Ryan Strain6%
Scott Tanser5%
Alexander Gogić5%
Lewis Jamieson5%
Charles Dunne5%
James Bolton4%
Conor McMenamin4%
Keanu Baccus3%
Marcus Fraser3%
Jaden Brown0%
Elvis Bwomono0%
Ryan Flynn0%
Caolan Boyd-Munce0%
Zachary Hemming0%
Richard Taylor0%
Hyeok-kyu Kwon0%
Thierry Small0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Keanu Baccus29%
Ryan Strain24%
Richard Taylor19%
Alexander Gogić18%
Scott Tanser16%
Conor McMenamin15%
Mark O'Hara14%
Toyosi Olusanya14%
Ryan Flynn9%
Caolan Boyd-Munce9%
Zachary Hemming8%
Jonah Ayunga6%
Mikael Mandron6%
Marcus Fraser5%
James Bolton4%
Greg Kiltie3%
Jaden Brown0%
Elvis Bwomono0%
Charles Dunne0%
James Scott0%
Hyeok-kyu Kwon0%
Lewis Jamieson0%
Stav Nachmani0%
Thierry Small0%
Alex Greive0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Greg Kiltie15%
Mark O'Hara11%
Scott Tanser11%
Mikael Mandron9%
Caolan Boyd-Munce9%
Ryan Strain6%
Conor McMenamin4%
Keanu Baccus3%
Toyosi Olusanya3%
Alexander Gogić3%
Jaden Brown0%
Jonah Ayunga0%
James Bolton0%
Elvis Bwomono0%
Charles Dunne0%
James Scott0%
Ryan Flynn0%
Marcus Fraser0%
Zachary Hemming0%
Richard Taylor0%
Hyeok-kyu Kwon0%
Lewis Jamieson0%
Stav Nachmani0%
Thierry Small0%
Alex Greive0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mikael Mandron14%
Stav Nachmani11%
Jonah Ayunga6%
Greg Kiltie6%
Toyosi Olusanya6%
Scott Tanser5%
Richard Taylor4%
Caolan Boyd-Munce3%
Ryan Strain0%
Keanu Baccus0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Jaden Brown0%
James Bolton0%
Elvis Bwomono0%
Charles Dunne0%
James Scott0%
Alexander Gogić0%
Ryan Flynn0%
Marcus Fraser0%
Conor McMenamin0%
Zachary Hemming0%
Hyeok-kyu Kwon0%
Lewis Jamieson0%
Thierry Small0%
Alex Greive0%
Aberdeen
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bojan Miovski37%
Jamie McGrath20%
Luís Henriques de Barros Lopes15%
Dante Polvara12%
Stefan Gartenmann8%
Junior Hoilett8%
Leighton Clarkson8%
Ester Sokler6%
Jonny Hayes5%
Nicky Devlin5%
Angus MacDonald4%
Jack Mackenzie3%
Connor Barron3%
Graeme Shinnie2%
Kelle Roos0%
James McGarry0%
Richard Jensen0%
Slobodan Rubežić0%
Pape Habib Gueye0%
Shayden Morris0%
Killian Phillips0%
Ryan Duncan0%
Jack Milne0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Slobodan Rubežić33%
Graeme Shinnie24%
Junior Hoilett23%
Jonny Hayes20%
Stefan Gartenmann18%
Nicky Devlin16%
Jamie McGrath12%
Richard Jensen12%
Luís Henriques de Barros Lopes10%
Connor Barron9%
James McGarry7%
Kelle Roos7%
Bojan Miovski7%
Dante Polvara6%
Leighton Clarkson5%
Angus MacDonald4%
Ester Sokler3%
Jack Mackenzie0%
Pape Habib Gueye0%
Shayden Morris0%
Killian Phillips0%
Ryan Duncan0%
Jack Milne0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Junior Hoilett38%
Luís Henriques de Barros Lopes12%
Connor Barron9%
Leighton Clarkson8%
Shayden Morris8%
Ryan Duncan8%
Graeme Shinnie7%
Nicky Devlin7%
Bojan Miovski7%
Jack Mackenzie6%
Ester Sokler6%
Dante Polvara6%
Richard Jensen6%
Jamie McGrath2%
Jonny Hayes0%
Stefan Gartenmann0%
Kelle Roos0%
Angus MacDonald0%
James McGarry0%
Slobodan Rubežić0%
Pape Habib Gueye0%
Killian Phillips0%
Jack Milne0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bojan Miovski37%
Junior Hoilett23%
James McGarry14%
Luís Henriques de Barros Lopes8%
Jack Mackenzie6%
Leighton Clarkson5%
Jamie McGrath2%
Graeme Shinnie2%
Jonny Hayes0%
Stefan Gartenmann0%
Kelle Roos0%
Angus MacDonald0%
Nicky Devlin0%
Richard Jensen0%
Slobodan Rubežić0%
Pape Habib Gueye0%
Ester Sokler0%
Connor Barron0%
Shayden Morris0%
Killian Phillips0%
Ryan Duncan0%
Jack Milne0%
Dante Polvara0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
RR (18)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
ST Mirren's squad is €7m less valuable than Aberdeen's (€8m vs €15m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
ST Mirren's attack is €2m less valuable than Aberdeen's (€1m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
ST Mirren's midfield is €1m less valuable than Aberdeen's (€3m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
ST Mirren's defence is €3m less valuable than Aberdeen's (€3m vs €7m).
Scotland: Premiership 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Rangers
Heart Of Midlothian
Kilmarnock
Hibernian
Motherwell
Dundee
Ross County
ST Johnstone
Livingston
Partick
Raith Rovers
Airdrie United