The model designates Celtic as the clear favourite, assigning a 66% chance of victory, a 23% chance of a draw and only 11% for a ST Mirren win. This preference stems from Celtic’s strong away form, scoring 1.71 goals and conceding just 0.79 against weaker opposition, while ST Mirren’s home record is weaker, having scored 1.5 and conceded 1.75 against stronger teams. The expected total goals is 2.5, with the most likely scoreline 0-1 for Celtic, which carries a 14.7% probability. The match is projected to end with a Celtic win, reflecting the model’s pick. The single most likely total of 2 goals has a 27% probability. Suggested selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 84.3%, Under 5.5 cards at 78.8%, Under 3.5 at 76.4%, Over 2.5 cards at 75.9%, Over 8.5 corners at 75.3%, Over 21.5 fouls at 71.9% and Over 1.5 at 71.7%. ST Mirren’s recent form shows a draw-heavy start, while Celtic comes off a win, reinforcing the model’s confidence in an away triumph.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Celtic, failed to deliver as the match finished 0-0, a draw that left the model’s pick wrong. ST Mirren’s recent run of DLWWL and a 3-3 draw against Motherwell had them looking for a lift, while Celtic, after a 2-1 win over Falkirk, were expected to dominate. The model’s prediction of an away win at 66% was incorrect, and the final result was a stalemate. The model’s selections performed well: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 84.3%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 78.8%, Under 3.5 hit at 76.4%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 75.9%, and Over 8.5 corners hit at 75.3%. However, Over 21.5 fouls missed at 71.9% and Over 1.5 missed at 71.7%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
ST Mirren win✗ Miss
10.8%
Avg Implied 6.4% · @ 14.78
Edge
+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
23.3%
Avg Implied 14.2% · @ 6.68
Edge
+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Celtic win✗ Miss
66.0%
Avg Implied 79.4% · @ 1.19
Edge
-13.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
ST Mirren
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.40
0.73
0.87
1.20
1.93
vs Stronger (10)
0.90
2.40
1.50
1.75
0.50
2.83
vs Similar (20)
1.00
0.90
0.45
0.55
1.67
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
0.63
2.50
0.21
1.56
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.67
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
2.50
vs Weaker (27)
2.15
0.48
2.62
0.15
1.71
0.79
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
71.7%
Under 1.5
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.9%
@ 1.56-15.5%
Under 2.5
55.1%
@ 2.38+15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.6%
Under 3.5
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
40.0%
No
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
14.7%
0-2
14.5%
1-1
10.7%
0-0 ✓
9.4%
1-2
9.0%
0-3
8.9%
1-3
5.5%
1-0
4.3%
ST Mirren goals ↓
Celtic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.4%
15%
14%
8.9%
4.1%
1
4.3%
11%
9.0%
5.5%
2.6%
2
1.6%
3.0%
2.8%
1.7%
0.8%
3
0.3%
0.6%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
4
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ST Mirren goals (down), columns = Celtic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.45
Rangers
2.34
Heart Of Midlothian
1.61
Livingston
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.26
Motherwell
1.21
Hibernian
1.18
ST Mirren
1.16
Aberdeen
1.08
Ross County
1.08
ST Johnstone
0.92
Dundee
0.76
ST Mirren is 1.29 points worse than Celtic in terms of average points per game (1.16 vs 2.45).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.42
Rangers
2.11
Heart Of Midlothian
1.42
Ross County
1.24
Motherwell
1.11
Aberdeen
1.08
Livingston
1.08
Hibernian
1.00
Dundee Utd
0.97
Dundee
0.89
ST Mirren
0.87
ST Johnstone
0.63
ST Mirren is 1.55 goals worse than Celtic in terms of goals scored per game (0.87 vs 2.42).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.58
Rangers
0.82
Hibernian
1.11
Dundee Utd
1.16
Heart Of Midlothian
1.16
Aberdeen
1.21
Livingston
1.21
ST Mirren
1.34
ST Johnstone
1.34
Motherwell
1.61
Ross County
1.61
Dundee
1.68
ST Mirren is 0.76 goals worse than Celtic in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 0.58).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
ST Mirren
For 6.7 · Against 4.3 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 13.3 · Total 25.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Celtic
For 9.8 · Against 3.2 · Total 13.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 12.0 · Total 21.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Mirren
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.5
10.9
3.4
3.8
3.0
24.6
25.0
24.2
vs Stronger (18)
9.1
7.6
10.7
3.4
4.3
2.4
24.8
26.2
23.3
vs Similar (32)
10.8
10.6
11.1
3.4
3.4
3.4
24.4
24.2
24.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
52%
60%
40%
48%
32%
74%
80%
68%
% under line
44%
48%
40%
60%
52%
68%
26%
20%
32%
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
10.7
11.4
2.6
2.2
3.1
22.4
21.6
23.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
10.2
10.5
10.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
27.8
30.0
26.3
vs Weaker (45)
11.1
10.7
11.6
2.4
2.0
3.0
21.8
20.9
22.7
% over line
72%
65%
79%
24%
19%
29%
58%
54%
62%
% under line
28%
35%
21%
76%
81%
71%
42%
46%
38%
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Celtic
11.0
Rangers
10.8
Dundee
10.7
Heart Of Midlothian
10.4
Ross County
10.4
Motherwell
10.3
ST Mirren
10.2
Dundee Utd
10.2
Hibernian
9.9
Aberdeen
9.7
ST Johnstone
9.5
Livingston
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Motherwell
3.7
Rangers
3.7
Heart Of Midlothian
3.7
Dundee Utd
3.7
ST Johnstone
3.6
Dundee
3.6
Livingston
3.6
Ross County
3.5
Hibernian
3.5
ST Mirren
3.4
Aberdeen
3.4
Celtic
2.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.4
Motherwell
25.8
Heart Of Midlothian
25.8
Dundee
25.5
ST Johnstone
25.4
Hibernian
24.9
Livingston
24.8
ST Mirren
24.6
Ross County
24.5
Dundee Utd
24.5
Rangers
23.5
Celtic
22.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
64.1%
Under 9.5
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
56.3%
Under 3.5
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
71.9%
Under 21.5
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ST Mirren
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.70
0.20
0.53
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
1.40
0.50
1.25
0.33
1.50
vs Similar (20)
0.35
0.35
0.09
0.27
0.67
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.33
1.29
0.21
0.75
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (27)
1.04
0.26
1.31
0.15
0.79
0.36
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ST Mirren
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.53
0.33
0.67
1.07
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.17
1.33
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.55
0.36
0.27
1.00
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.30
1.21
0.00
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Weaker (27)
1.11
0.22
1.31
0.00
0.93
0.43
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
ST Mirren · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paul Nsio33%
Samuel Ramos33%
Luke Thomas0%
Alexander Gogić0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Jake Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
Eseosa Sule0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ryan Carr100%
Luke Thomas33%
Jake Young33%
Alexander Gogić0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Paul Nsio0%
Eseosa Sule0%
Samuel Ramos0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexander Gogić33%
Samuel Ramos33%
Luke Thomas0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Jake Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
Paul Nsio0%
Eseosa Sule0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Eseosa Sule67%
Luke Thomas0%
Alexander Gogić0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Jake Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
Paul Nsio0%
Samuel Ramos0%
Celtic · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Benjamin Nygren60%
Camilo Durán40%
Callum McGregor25%
Kasper Høgh25%
Luke McCowan25%
Kieran Tierney0%
James Forrest0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Auston Trusty0%
Sebastian Tounekti0%
Liam Scales0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luke McCowan25%
Colby Donovan20%
Kieran Tierney0%
James Forrest0%
Callum McGregor0%
Kasper Høgh0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Benjamin Nygren0%
Auston Trusty0%
Sebastian Tounekti0%
Liam Scales0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
Camilo Durán0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kieran Tierney40%
Benjamin Nygren40%
Yang Hyun-Jun20%
Camilo Durán20%
James Forrest0%
Callum McGregor0%
Kasper Høgh0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Luke McCowan0%
Auston Trusty0%
Sebastian Tounekti0%
Liam Scales0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Camilo Durán60%
Kasper Høgh50%
Benjamin Nygren40%
Kieran Tierney0%
James Forrest0%
Callum McGregor0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Luke McCowan0%
Auston Trusty0%
Sebastian Tounekti0%
Liam Scales0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
ST Mirren's squad is €109m less valuable than Celtic's (€8m vs €116m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
ST Mirren's attack is €55m less valuable than Celtic's (€1m vs €56m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
ST Mirren's midfield is €17m less valuable than Celtic's (€3m vs €20m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
ST Mirren's defence is €38m less valuable than Celtic's (€3m vs €41m).
Scotland: Premiership 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Rangers
Heart Of Midlothian
Livingston
Dundee Utd
Motherwell
Hibernian
Aberdeen
Ross County
ST Johnstone
Dundee