ST Mirren face Celtic in a match the model favours an away win, with a 46% chance of Celtic triumphing. The overall shape points to a low-scoring affair, with an expected 2.3 goals and a 28% chance that the total will be exactly two. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.9% probability that both sides will find the net once. ST Mirren, at home against a stronger side, average 1.0 goal scored and 1.44 conceded, while Celtic, on the road to a weaker opponent, average 1.73 scored and 1.09 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.4%), Under 5.5 (96.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.5%), Home under 2.5 goals (93.0% miss), Away +2 handicap (91.2% miss) and Under 4.5 (91.0%). The probabilities for the match result are Home win 24%, Draw 30%, Away win 46%.
Results analysis
The upset came early as ST Mirren snatched a 3-1 win, overturning the model’s prediction of an away victory that had a 46% chance. The pre-match favourite, Celtic, fell short, and the model’s call was wrong. The final score of 3-1 confirmed a home win, extending ST Mirren’s recent form after a draw. The model’s selection of “Away win” was incorrect. All suggested picks were reviewed: Under 7.5 hit at 99.7%; Under 6.5 hit at 99.0%; Home under 3.5 goals hit at 98.4%; Under 5.5 hit at 96.7%; Away under 3.5 goals hit at 94.5%; Home under 2.5 goals missed at 93.0%; Away +2 handicap missed at 91.2%; Under 4.5 hit at 91.0%. The match delivered a surprising home triumph, defying the model’s expectations.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
ST Mirren win✓ Hit
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Celtic win✗ Miss
46.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
ST Mirren
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.33
1.88
1.19
1.36
1.50
vs Stronger (13)
1.08
1.46
1.00
1.44
1.25
1.50
vs Similar (15)
1.67
1.20
2.17
0.67
1.33
1.56
vs Weaker (2)
5.00
1.50
8.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.93
1.75
0.88
1.64
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.83
1.33
0.33
2.00
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (24)
1.92
0.83
2.08
0.62
1.73
1.09
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.3%
Under 1.5
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.7%
Under 2.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
21.1%
Under 3.5
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.3%
No
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-1
12.2%
0-0
10.8%
0-2
9.5%
1-2
8.9%
1-0
7.7%
2-1
6.0%
0-3
4.4%
ST Mirren goals ↓
Celtic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
12%
9.5%
4.4%
1.6%
1
7.7%
14%
8.9%
4.2%
1.5%
2
4.2%
6.0%
4.2%
2.0%
0.7%
3
1.3%
1.9%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ST Mirren goals (down), columns = Celtic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Aberdeen
2.57
Celtic
2.50
Dundee
2.50
Rangers
2.50
Ross County
2.40
Ayr Utd
2.25
Livingston
2.25
Dundee Utd
2.00
Spartans
2.00
Falkirk
2.00
Queen's Park
1.80
ST Johnstone
1.80
Airdrie United
1.80
Hibernian
1.80
Partick
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.75
Raith Rovers
1.75
Montrose
1.75
East Fife
1.75
Alloa Athletic
1.75
Motherwell
1.71
Morton
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Peterhead
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Hamilton Academical
1.25
Arbroath
1.00
Kelty Hearts
1.00
Kilmarnock
1.00
Inverness CT
1.00
Cove Rangers
1.00
Forfar
1.00
Dunfermline
0.75
Stenhousemuir
0.75
Stirling
0.50
Elgin
0.25
East Kilbride
0.25
Dumbarton
0.25
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
0.25
Stranraer
0.25
ST Mirren
0.00
Edinburgh City
0.00
Heart Of Midlothian
0.00
Brechin
0.00
ST Mirren is 2.50 points worse than Celtic in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 2.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
4.25
Dundee
4.00
Queen's Park
3.20
Airdrie United
3.20
Hibernian
3.00
Aberdeen
2.86
Partick
2.75
Falkirk
2.50
Rangers
2.50
Ayr Utd
2.25
Clyde
2.25
ST Johnstone
2.20
Dundee Utd
2.00
Ross County
2.00
East Fife
2.00
Annan Athletic
1.75
Raith Rovers
1.75
Alloa Athletic
1.75
Montrose
1.50
Motherwell
1.43
Spartans
1.33
Livingston
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Hamilton Academical
1.25
Peterhead
1.25
Queen of the South
1.25
Dunfermline
1.00
Dumbarton
1.00
Stranraer
1.00
Morton
0.75
Elgin
0.75
Inverness CT
0.75
Cove Rangers
0.75
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
0.75
Forfar
0.75
Kelty Hearts
0.50
Stirling
0.50
Brechin
0.50
East Kilbride
0.50
Arbroath
0.25
Edinburgh City
0.25
ST Mirren
0.00
Kilmarnock
0.00
Heart Of Midlothian
0.00
ST Mirren is 4.25 goals worse than Celtic in terms of goals scored per game (0.00 vs 4.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kilmarnock
0.00
Livingston
0.25
Motherwell
0.71
Hamilton Academical
0.75
Ross County
0.80
ST Mirren
1.00
Aberdeen
1.00
Raith Rovers
1.00
Dundee
1.00
Hibernian
1.00
Rangers
1.00
Forfar
1.00
Dundee Utd
1.17
Spartans
1.17
Falkirk
1.17
Queen's Park
1.20
Ayr Utd
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Partick
1.25
Annan Athletic
1.25
Dunfermline
1.25
Montrose
1.25
East Fife
1.25
Alloa Athletic
1.25
ST Johnstone
1.40
Morton
1.50
Celtic
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Inverness CT
1.75
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Stirling
2.00
Heart Of Midlothian
2.00
Airdrie United
2.20
Cove Rangers
2.25
Brechin
2.50
Stranraer
2.50
Stenhousemuir
2.75
Peterhead
2.75
Dumbarton
3.25
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
3.25
Elgin
3.50
Edinburgh City
4.00
East Kilbride
4.00
ST Mirren is 0.50 goals better than Celtic in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
ST Mirren
For 6.4 · Against 4.3 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 8.8 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Celtic
For 5.1 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 9.4 · Total 21.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Mirren
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.1
10.9
3.8
4.5
3.1
21.3
21.3
21.3
vs Stronger (23)
11.0
9.8
12.6
4.3
5.0
3.1
21.6
21.4
21.8
vs Similar (24)
9.9
10.4
9.5
3.8
4.2
3.6
21.1
21.2
20.9
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
66%
62%
70%
48%
64%
32%
46%
48%
45%
% under line
34%
38%
30%
52%
36%
68%
54%
52%
55%
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
11.1
10.3
2.9
2.9
2.9
20.9
20.1
21.8
vs Stronger (2)
10.5
14.0
7.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
9.5
8.0
11.0
vs Similar (9)
10.1
11.0
9.6
3.8
5.2
2.6
23.5
22.0
24.4
vs Weaker (39)
10.9
10.9
10.8
2.8
2.6
3.1
21.0
20.4
21.6
% over line
57%
64%
50%
36%
30%
43%
40%
32%
50%
% under line
43%
36%
50%
64%
70%
57%
60%
68%
50%
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
East Kilbride
11.7
Ross County
11.4
Hibernian
11.3
Falkirk
11.2
Morton
11.0
Dumbarton
10.8
Aberdeen
10.8
Celtic
10.8
Dundee Utd
10.7
Rangers
10.6
Stirling
10.6
Airdrie United
10.4
Heart Of Midlothian
10.3
ST Mirren
10.3
Partick
10.3
Dundee
10.3
ST Johnstone
10.3
Kilmarnock
10.2
Elgin
10.1
Brechin
10.0
Dunfermline
9.9
Arbroath
9.8
Stranraer
9.8
Motherwell
9.7
Annan Athletic
9.6
Kelty Hearts
9.6
Clyde
9.5
East Fife
9.5
Cove Rangers
9.3
Livingston
9.2
Edinburgh City
9.2
Forfar
9.1
Inverness CT
9.0
Spartans
9.0
Montrose
8.8
Stenhousemuir
8.7
Peterhead
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Edinburgh City
5.3
Peterhead
5.3
Hamilton Academical
5.0
Morton
5.0
Forfar
5.0
Elgin
4.9
Ayr Utd
4.8
Aberdeen
4.7
Clyde
4.6
Stranraer
4.6
Stirling
4.5
Hibernian
4.4
Spartans
4.4
Dundee Utd
4.3
Motherwell
4.3
Stenhousemuir
4.3
East Fife
4.2
Partick
4.2
Rangers
4.2
ST Mirren
4.2
Kilmarnock
4.1
Livingston
4.1
ST Johnstone
4.1
Falkirk
4.0
Heart Of Midlothian
4.0
Annan Athletic
3.9
Kelty Hearts
3.9
Montrose
3.9
Dumbarton
3.8
Dunfermline
3.8
Celtic
3.6
Brechin
3.5
Dundee
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Ross County
3.3
Inverness CT
3.3
Arbroath
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
Cove Rangers
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
East Kilbride
27.7
Peterhead
26.0
Livingston
25.3
Motherwell
25.1
Forfar
24.8
Edinburgh City
24.4
East Fife
23.9
Rangers
23.8
Elgin
23.7
Aberdeen
23.7
Falkirk
23.4
Stenhousemuir
23.3
Kilmarnock
23.1
Heart Of Midlothian
22.6
Clyde
22.6
Morton
22.4
Dundee Utd
22.3
ST Johnstone
22.1
Stranraer
21.9
Inverness CT
21.8
Montrose
21.6
Stirling
21.4
Spartans
21.3
Hibernian
21.2
ST Mirren
21.1
Dunfermline
21.0
Ross County
20.8
Dundee
20.8
Annan Athletic
20.7
Cove Rangers
20.7
Kelty Hearts
20.7
Celtic
20.5
Brechin
20.4
Airdrie United
20.3
Partick
20.3
Arbroath
20.2
Dumbarton
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
45.2%
Under 9.5
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
65.7%
Under 3.5
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
68.1%
Under 21.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ST Mirren or Draw✓ Hit
53.5%
Avg Implied -
24%
30%
46%
covers ST Mirren + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren or Celtic✓ Hit
70.4%
Avg Implied -
24%
30%
46%
covers ST Mirren + Celtic
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Celtic✗ Miss
76.1%
Avg Implied -
24%
30%
46%
covers Draw + Celtic
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
61.0%
Under
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
24.3%
Under
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.5%
Under
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
41.1%
Under
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.8%
Under
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to ST Mirren, so a minus line means ST Mirren give that many goals of a start and Celtic receive them. At -1, ST Mirren must win by two or more to land; a one-goal ST Mirren win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (ST Mirren)Actual: Draw
ST Mirren -2
2.3%
Draw -2
6.4%
Celtic +2
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (ST Mirren)Actual: ST Mirren
ST Mirren -1
8.8%
Draw -1
15.2%
Celtic +1
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (ST Mirren)Actual: ST Mirren
ST Mirren +1
53.5%
Draw +1
23.3%
Celtic -1
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (ST Mirren)Actual: ST Mirren
ST Mirren +2
76.8%
Draw +2
14.4%
Celtic -2
8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ST Mirren
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.47
0.94
0.44
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
0.38
0.56
0.56
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.53
1.17
0.17
0.67
0.78
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
3.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.56
0.50
0.79
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.83
0.33
1.33
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (24)
0.71
0.46
0.62
0.31
0.82
0.64
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ST Mirren
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.87
0.94
0.75
0.86
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
1.08
0.44
0.89
1.25
1.50
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.67
0.78
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.00
5.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.40
1.19
0.38
0.86
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (24)
1.21
0.38
1.46
0.31
0.91
0.45
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
ST Mirren
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jake Young15%
Jonah Ayunga13%
Mikael Mandron11%
Dan N'Lundulu11%
Miguel Freckleton11%
Killian Phillips8%
Keanu Baccus6%
Richard King6%
Alexander Gogić6%
Liam Donnelly6%
Scott Tanser5%
Conor McMenamin4%
Declan John3%
Marcus Fraser3%
Mark O'Hara0%
Kion Etete0%
Ross Sinclair0%
Allan Campbell0%
Shamal George0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Tunmise Sobowale0%
Malik Dijksteel0%
Fraser Taylor0%
Roland Idowu0%
Jalmaro Calvin0%
Jacob Devaney0%
Evan Mooney0%
Luke Douglas0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Keanu Baccus38%
Alexander Gogić36%
Killian Phillips24%
Fraser Taylor22%
Richard King22%
Marcus Fraser19%
Roland Idowu19%
Miguel Freckleton19%
Liam Donnelly18%
Jacob Devaney15%
Mikael Mandron11%
Shamal George9%
Allan Campbell8%
Dan N'Lundulu7%
Mark O'Hara4%
Jonah Ayunga4%
Conor McMenamin4%
Declan John3%
Jayden Richardson3%
Kion Etete0%
Ross Sinclair0%
Scott Tanser0%
Tunmise Sobowale0%
Jake Young0%
Malik Dijksteel0%
Jalmaro Calvin0%
Evan Mooney0%
Luke Douglas0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Scott Tanser18%
Declan John17%
Mikael Mandron14%
Jacob Devaney8%
Mark O'Hara4%
Conor McMenamin4%
Richard King3%
Alexander Gogić3%
Shamal George3%
Miguel Freckleton3%
Keanu Baccus0%
Kion Etete0%
Jonah Ayunga0%
Ross Sinclair0%
Liam Donnelly0%
Allan Campbell0%
Marcus Fraser0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Dan N'Lundulu0%
Tunmise Sobowale0%
Killian Phillips0%
Jake Young0%
Malik Dijksteel0%
Fraser Taylor0%
Roland Idowu0%
Jalmaro Calvin0%
Evan Mooney0%
Luke Douglas0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luke Douglas33%
Jonah Ayunga9%
Killian Phillips8%
Roland Idowu8%
Dan N'Lundulu7%
Keanu Baccus6%
Liam Donnelly6%
Alexander Gogić3%
Mark O'Hara0%
Mikael Mandron0%
Kion Etete0%
Declan John0%
Ross Sinclair0%
Scott Tanser0%
Allan Campbell0%
Marcus Fraser0%
Shamal George0%
Conor McMenamin0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Tunmise Sobowale0%
Jake Young0%
Malik Dijksteel0%
Richard King0%
Fraser Taylor0%
Jalmaro Calvin0%
Miguel Freckleton0%
Jacob Devaney0%
Evan Mooney0%
Celtic
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Benjamin Nygren36%
Callum Osmand33%
Kelechi Iheanacho30%
Daizen Maeda26%
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain22%
Yang Hyun-Jun20%
Tomáš Čvančara18%
Johnny Kenny17%
Arne Engels15%
Kieran Tierney13%
Reo Hatate12%
Julián Araujo9%
Auston Trusty6%
Luke McCowan6%
Sebastian Tounekti5%
Marcelo Saracchi4%
Callum McGregor4%
James Forrest3%
Liam Scales2%
Tony Ralston0%
Kasper Schmeichel0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Alistair Johnston0%
Junior Adamu0%
Adam Idah0%
Paulo Bernardo0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Michel Ange Balikwisha0%
Dane Murray0%
Shin Yamada0%
Benjamin Arthur0%
Colby Donovan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Liam Scales29%
Julián Araujo27%
Adam Idah25%
Callum McGregor22%
Alistair Johnston22%
Arne Engels20%
Reo Hatate20%
Tomáš Čvančara18%
Daizen Maeda17%
Cameron Carter-Vickers17%
Kelechi Iheanacho15%
Paulo Bernardo13%
Marcelo Saracchi13%
Colby Donovan13%
Tony Ralston13%
Auston Trusty12%
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain11%
Kasper Schmeichel8%
Sebastian Tounekti8%
Benjamin Nygren8%
Kieran Tierney7%
Luke McCowan6%
Yang Hyun-Jun5%
James Forrest3%
Junior Adamu0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Michel Ange Balikwisha0%
Johnny Kenny0%
Dane Murray0%
Callum Osmand0%
Shin Yamada0%
Benjamin Arthur0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Callum Osmand33%
Junior Adamu20%
Kieran Tierney20%
Daizen Maeda17%
Arne Engels15%
Colby Donovan13%
Benjamin Nygren12%
Alistair Johnston11%
Johnny Kenny11%
Tomáš Čvančara9%
Michel Ange Balikwisha9%
Marcelo Saracchi9%
Reo Hatate7%
Liam Scales6%
Callum McGregor6%
Sebastian Tounekti5%
James Forrest3%
Luke McCowan3%
Yang Hyun-Jun2%
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain0%
Tony Ralston0%
Kasper Schmeichel0%
Kelechi Iheanacho0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Auston Trusty0%
Julián Araujo0%
Adam Idah0%
Paulo Bernardo0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Dane Murray0%
Shin Yamada0%
Benjamin Arthur0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Johnny Kenny28%
Adam Idah25%
Benjamin Nygren20%
Junior Adamu20%
Tomáš Čvančara18%
Kelechi Iheanacho15%
Daizen Maeda15%
Shin Yamada11%
Luke McCowan9%
Sebastian Tounekti8%
Reo Hatate7%
Arne Engels2%
Yang Hyun-Jun2%
Liam Scales2%
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain0%
Tony Ralston0%
Kieran Tierney0%
James Forrest0%
Callum McGregor0%
Marcelo Saracchi0%
Kasper Schmeichel0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Auston Trusty0%
Julián Araujo0%
Alistair Johnston0%
Paulo Bernardo0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Michel Ange Balikwisha0%
Dane Murray0%
Callum Osmand0%
Benjamin Arthur0%
Colby Donovan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
KH (4)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
ST Mirren's squad is €109m less valuable than Celtic's (€8m vs €116m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
ST Mirren's attack is €55m less valuable than Celtic's (€1m vs €56m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
ST Mirren's midfield is €17m less valuable than Celtic's (€3m vs €20m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
ST Mirren's defence is €38m less valuable than Celtic's (€3m vs €41m).
Scotland: Premiership 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Heart Of Midlothian
Rangers
Motherwell
Hibernian
Falkirk
Dundee Utd
Dundee
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
Livingston
Partick
Dunfermline
Arbroath