ST Mirren arrive from a shaky five-game run, having lost their last match 1-5 to Rangers, while Celtic come off a 2-1 win over Falkirk. The model sees Celtic as the clear favourite, assigning a 66% chance to an away win, 22% for a draw and 12% for a home victory. That 66% reflects Celtic’s dominant away form, scoring an average of 2.36 goals and conceding 1.64 against weaker opposition, versus ST Mirren’s 1.0 goal scored and 0.33 conceded at home against stronger teams. The expected total is 2.9 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 24%. The single most probable scoreline is 0-2 for Celtic, with a 12.3% probability. Suggested picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.2%, Home under 3.5 goals at 99.1%, Under 7.5 at 99.1%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.2%, Under 6.5 at 97.3%, Away +2 handicap at 96.2%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 95.5% with a 6% edge, and Home under 2.5 goals at 95.4% with a 5% edge.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
ST Mirren win
12.5%
Avg Implied 15.1% · @ 6.20
Edge
-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
6.40
1xBet
6.40
Marathonbet
6.40
Dafabet
6.40
Betano
6.40
Draw
20.4%
Avg Implied 20.4% · @ 4.59
Edge
+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
5.00
Pinnacle
4.83
BetVictor
4.75
10Bet
4.65
Marathonbet
4.60
Celtic win
67.1%
Avg Implied 64.5% · @ 1.45
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.48
Betfair
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.46
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
ST Mirren
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.37
1.07
1.43
1.56
1.31
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
1.38
1.00
0.33
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.33
1.43
1.09
1.73
1.60
1.10
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
1.20
2.24
1.06
2.08
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.40
1.40
2.00
2.50
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (25)
2.32
1.16
2.27
0.87
2.40
1.60
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.3%
@ 1.13-0.2%
Under 1.5
17.7%
@ 5.34+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Pinnacle
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Under
BetVictor
5.75
Pinnacle
5.63
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Betano
5.30
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.7%
@ 1.47-4.0%
Under 2.5
40.3%
@ 2.58+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.52
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Pinnacle
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.67
Pinnacle
2.67
BetVictor
2.63
Betfair
2.55
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.4%
@ 2.20-5.6%
Under 3.5
62.6%
@ 1.65+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.33
Betfair
2.30
10Bet
2.25
Betano
2.20
Pinnacle
2.19
Under
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Both teams to score
Yes
52.8%
@ 1.61-4.8%
No
47.2%
@ 2.19+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.65
William Hil
1.62
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
No
Betano
2.27
BetVictor
2.25
10Bet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
William Hil
2.20
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
11.2%@ 8.00+5.6%
1-2
9.8%@ 7.67+3.9%
1-1
9.7%@ 8.53+4.4%
0-1
9.2%@ 8.84+4.1%
0-3
8.3%@ 10.42+4.0%
1-3
7.2%@ 10.06+2.8%
0-0
5.4%@ 15.25+2.5%
0-4
4.6%@ 16.78+1.9%
ST Mirren goals ↓
Celtic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
9.2%
11%
8.3%
4.6%
1
3.1%
9.7%
9.8%
7.2%
4.0%
2
1.7%
3.8%
4.3%
3.2%
1.8%
3
0.5%
1.1%
1.2%
0.9%
0.5%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ST Mirren goals (down), columns = Celtic goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.16
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Rangers
1.89
Motherwell
1.61
Hibernian
1.50
Falkirk
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.18
Dundee
1.11
Kilmarnock
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.05
ST Mirren
0.95
ST Mirren is 1.21 points worse than Celtic in terms of average points per game (0.95 vs 2.16).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.00
Celtic
1.92
Heart Of Midlothian
1.76
Motherwell
1.55
Hibernian
1.53
Kilmarnock
1.32
Falkirk
1.32
Dundee Utd
1.29
Dundee
1.11
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.00
ST Mirren
0.80
ST Mirren is 1.12 goals worse than Celtic in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 1.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Motherwell
0.95
Celtic
1.08
Rangers
1.13
Hibernian
1.16
ST Mirren
1.40
Aberdeen
1.45
ST Johnstone
1.56
Dundee Utd
1.58
Dundee
1.61
Falkirk
1.63
Kilmarnock
1.79
ST Mirren is 0.32 goals worse than Celtic in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
66%
Rangers
58%
Motherwell
58%
Heart Of Midlothian
53%
Falkirk
51%
Aberdeen
48%
Hibernian
47%
ST Mirren
46%
Dundee
44%
Kilmarnock
42%
Dundee Utd
42%
ST Mirren is 19.2 percentage points worse than Celtic in terms of average possession (46% vs 66%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
ST Mirren
For 5.6 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 10.4 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Celtic
For 6.5 · Against 4.9 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 10.7 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Mirren
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
10.6
11.6
2.9
3.3
2.5
22.6
20.3
25.1
vs Stronger (16)
10.4
10.1
10.7
3.0
3.9
2.1
22.9
21.9
24.0
vs Similar (33)
11.4
10.8
12.1
2.9
3.0
2.8
22.4
19.4
25.7
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
72%
71%
74%
36%
54%
19%
62%
48%
79%
% under line
28%
29%
26%
64%
46%
81%
38%
52%
21%
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
11.1
10.6
3.6
3.8
3.3
20.7
20.2
21.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
10.9
8.8
13.7
3.9
5.4
2.0
22.3
24.5
19.3
vs Weaker (41)
10.9
11.6
10.1
3.5
3.4
3.5
20.4
19.3
21.7
% over line
60%
62%
57%
46%
46%
46%
31%
29%
33%
% under line
40%
38%
43%
54%
54%
54%
69%
71%
67%
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
ST Mirren
11.1
Celtic
11.0
Dundee Utd
10.5
Hibernian
10.5
Aberdeen
10.4
Heart Of Midlothian
10.3
Rangers
10.1
ST Johnstone
10.1
Dundee
9.7
Falkirk
9.6
Kilmarnock
9.5
Motherwell
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aberdeen
4.7
Motherwell
4.7
Hibernian
4.6
Heart Of Midlothian
4.6
Rangers
4.3
Kilmarnock
4.2
Falkirk
4.2
Dundee Utd
4.1
ST Johnstone
4.0
Celtic
3.8
Dundee
3.7
ST Mirren
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rangers
26.7
Motherwell
25.9
Aberdeen
25.6
Falkirk
25.4
Heart Of Midlothian
24.6
Kilmarnock
24.2
Hibernian
23.2
ST Mirren
22.2
ST Johnstone
22.2
Dundee
21.9
Dundee Utd
21.9
Celtic
21.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
64.4%
@ 1.59+6.3%
Under 9.5
35.6%
@ 2.22-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.62
Betano
1.57
Under
Betano
2.32
Unibet
2.12
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
56.1%
@ 1.90+7.6%
Under 3.5
43.9%
@ 1.79-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.72
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
52.5%
Under 21.5
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ST Mirren or Draw
32.9%
Avg Implied 35.5% · @ 2.65
Edge
-2.6%
13%
20%
67%
covers ST Mirren + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.70
Unibet
2.70
BetVictor
2.70
1xBet
2.69
Marathonbet
2.69
ST Mirren or Celtic
79.6%
Avg Implied 80.0% · @ 1.17
Edge
-0.3%
13%
20%
67%
covers ST Mirren + Celtic
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.17
Draw or Celtic
87.5%
Avg Implied 84.6% · @ 1.11
Edge
+2.9%
13%
20%
67%
covers Draw + Celtic
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5
Over
58.2%
@ 1.48-4.7%
Under
41.8%
@ 2.51+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Under
Betfair
2.63
Betano
2.60
Pinnacle
2.58
BetVictor
2.55
10Bet
2.50
ST Mirren over/under 1.5
Over
21.8%
@ 3.32-6.4%
Under
78.2%
@ 1.30+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.50
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.37
1xBet
3.34
Marathonbet
3.34
Under
Betfair
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
ST Mirren over/under 2.5
Over
5.8%
@ 8.82-4.7%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.04+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Unibet
9.00
1xBet
8.80
Marathonbet
8.70
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
ST Mirren over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
@ 20.75-3.4%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
Celtic over/under 0.5
Over
89.1%
@ 1.07+1.5%
Under
10.9%
@ 7.57-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
Unibet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Under
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.50
Unibet
6.75
Betano
6.60
Celtic over/under 1.5
Over
65.0%
@ 1.41-1.2%
Under
35.0%
@ 2.76+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.44
Unibet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Under
BetVictor
2.88
Pinnacle
2.87
1xBet
2.78
Marathonbet
2.78
Betfair
2.75
Celtic over/under 2.5
Over
38.3%
@ 2.29-2.6%
Under
61.7%
@ 1.58+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.50
Unibet
2.32
Pinnacle
2.31
10Bet
2.30
Betano
2.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.61
BetVictor
1.60
Betano
1.60
Celtic over/under 3.5
Over
18.5%
@ 4.31-3.1%
Under
81.5%
@ 1.19+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.50
BetVictor
4.33
10Bet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Under
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to ST Mirren, so a minus line means ST Mirren give that many goals of a start and Celtic receive them. At -1, ST Mirren must win by two or more to land; a one-goal ST Mirren win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (ST Mirren)
ST Mirren -2
1.0%
@ 48.50-1.0%
Draw -2
3.2%
@ 18.50-2.0%
Celtic +2
95.9%
@ 1.02+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
56.00
Bet365
41.00
Draw
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
18.00
Away
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.01
Handicap -1 (ST Mirren)
ST Mirren -1
4.1%
@ 13.75-2.4%
Draw -1
8.4%
@ 7.88-3.1%
Celtic +1
87.5%
@ 1.10+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
15.00
Unibet
13.00
10Bet
12.00
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
7.00
Away
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Handicap +1 (ST Mirren)
ST Mirren +1
32.9%
@ 2.64-1.3%
Draw +1
22.7%
@ 3.72-1.6%
Celtic -1
44.4%
@ 2.17+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.69
Unibet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
10Bet
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.74
10Bet
3.65
Unibet
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Away
Betfair
2.30
Bet365
2.20
10Bet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.11
Unibet
2.10
Handicap +2 (ST Mirren)
ST Mirren +2
55.6%
@ 1.62+0.3%
Draw +2
20.4%
@ 4.28-0.5%
Celtic -2
24.0%
@ 3.75+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.68
Unibet
1.64
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Betfair
1.53
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.35
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.00
Away
Betfair
4.20
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Unibet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.34
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ST Mirren
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.43
0.64
0.81
0.69
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.88
0.33
0.33
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.62
0.45
0.73
0.90
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.50
1.41
0.41
0.92
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (25)
1.32
0.40
1.47
0.27
1.10
0.60
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.2%
@ 1.24-1.5%
Under 0.5
26.8%
@ 3.67+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.00
BetVictor
3.90
Bet365
3.75
William Hil
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.5%
@ 2.18-8.4%
Under 1.5
65.5%
@ 1.63+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.25
Betano
2.25
Bet365
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Pinnacle
2.18
Under
Pinnacle
1.66
William Hil
1.65
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.3%
@ 4.79-5.1%
Under 2.5
85.7%
@ 1.16+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.20
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Unibet
4.90
William Hil
4.80
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
1xBet
1.15
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 HT
Over
33.6%
@ 2.59-2.2%
Under
66.4%
@ 1.45+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.71
10Bet
2.65
Unibet
2.63
Betano
2.55
Marathonbet
2.53
Under
1xBet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
Unibet
1.43
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.9%
@ 9.18-3.2%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.03+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
10.00
Marathonbet
9.40
1xBet
9.30
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 0.5 HT
Over
57.3%
@ 1.48-5.9%
Under
42.7%
@ 2.54+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Unibet
1.50
1xBet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Under
Pinnacle
2.69
10Bet
2.62
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.45
Unibet
2.43
Celtic over/under 1.5 HT
Over
19.9%
@ 3.26-8.5%
Under
80.1%
@ 1.29+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.40
Betano
3.25
Marathonbet
3.24
1xBet
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Under
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Celtic over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.0%
@ 8.37-6.1%
Under
95.0%
@ 1.05+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
9.00
1xBet
8.60
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ST Mirren
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.64
0.79
0.75
0.62
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.50
0.67
0.00
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.81
0.64
1.00
0.70
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.70
0.82
0.65
1.15
0.77
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.40
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.00
0.76
0.80
0.60
1.30
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.2%
@ 1.13-0.8%
Under 0.5
18.8%
@ 5.16+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Under
Bet365
5.50
Betano
5.30
10Bet
5.25
1xBet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.20
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.4%
@ 1.69-7.7%
Under 1.5
52.6%
@ 2.07+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Unibet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Under
Betano
2.18
Marathonbet
2.13
1xBet
2.13
10Bet
2.10
Unibet
2.02
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.1%
@ 3.08-9.1%
Under 2.5
78.9%
@ 1.33+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Unibet
3.20
10Bet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.93
Under
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 2H
Over
42.1%
@ 2.07-2.8%
Under
57.9%
@ 1.68+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
Betano
2.00
Under
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.64
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.3%
@ 6.42-4.1%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.08+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.80
Marathonbet
6.75
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.8%
@ 11.75-6.1%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.02+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Celtic over/under 0.5 2H
Over
65.2%
@ 1.31-5.9%
Under
34.8%
@ 3.23+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Under
Betano
3.25
1xBet
3.20
Celtic over/under 1.5 2H
Over
28.0%
@ 2.40-10.6%
Under
72.0%
@ 1.51+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.45
1xBet
2.42
Betano
2.37
Marathonbet
2.35
Under
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.51
1xBet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Celtic over/under 2.5 2H
Over
9.6%
@ 5.48-7.3%
Under
90.4%
@ 1.11+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.75
1xBet
5.70
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.4%
Under 7.5
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.3%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.2%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.1%
Under 6.5
96.2%
1.04
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
+3.7%
Away +2 handicap
95.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
+2.9%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.0%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
-
-
+6.1%
Home under 2.5 goals
94.2%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
+4.7%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
93.1%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
+3.2%
Under 5.5
90.6%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Pinnacle
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
+4.6%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
90.4%
1.11
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
-
-
+7.3%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
89.7%
1.08
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
-
-
+4.1%
Away over 0.5 goals
89.1%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
Unibet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.05
+1.5%
Draw or Away
87.5%
1.11
Betano
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
+2.9%
Away +1 handicap
87.5%
1.10
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
-
+5.6%
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.7%
1.16
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
1xBet
1.15
+5.1%
Over 1.5
82.3%
1.13
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Pinnacle
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.14
-0.2%
Away under 3.5 goals
81.5%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
+3.1%
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.2%
1.13
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.12
-0.8%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
80.1%
1.29
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
+8.5%
Under 4.5
79.9%
1.25
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+5.0%
Home or Away
79.6%
1.17
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.17
-0.3%
Under 5.5 cards
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.9%
1.33
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
+9.1%
Home under 1.5 goals
78.2%
1.30
Betfair
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
+6.4%
Under 25.5 fouls
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
75.8%
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
+16.9%
Over 8.5 corners
75.6%
1.35
Unibet
1.37
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
+7.0%
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.2%
1.24
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
-1.5%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
72.0%
1.51
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.51
1xBet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
-
+10.6%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
ST Mirren
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
D. John33%
Samuel Ramos33%
P. Nsio25%
Luke Thomas0%
Alexander Gogić0%
C. Mochrie0%
J. Richardson0%
J. Chapman0%
J. Young0%
Henry Fieldson0%
Ryan Carr0%
Eseosa Sule0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ryan Carr75%
Henry Fieldson33%
Luke Thomas25%
J. Richardson25%
J. Young25%
D. John0%
Alexander Gogić0%
C. Mochrie0%
J. Chapman0%
P. Nsio0%
Eseosa Sule0%
Samuel Ramos0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Henry Fieldson33%
Samuel Ramos33%
Alexander Gogić25%
D. John0%
Luke Thomas0%
C. Mochrie0%
J. Richardson0%
J. Chapman0%
J. Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
P. Nsio0%
Eseosa Sule0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Eseosa Sule50%
D. John0%
Luke Thomas0%
Alexander Gogić0%
C. Mochrie0%
J. Richardson0%
J. Chapman0%
J. Young0%
Henry Fieldson0%
Ryan Carr0%
P. Nsio0%
Samuel Ramos0%
Celtic
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
B. Nygren67%
C. Durán50%
Kasper Høgh25%
Luke McCowan25%
C. McGregor20%
Yang Hyun-Jun17%
Kieran Tierney0%
J. Forrest0%
C. Carter-Vickers0%
H. Hassan0%
Auston Trusty0%
S. Tounekti0%
L. Scales0%
V. Sinisalo0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luke McCowan25%
C. Carter-Vickers17%
Colby Donovan17%
Kieran Tierney0%
J. Forrest0%
C. McGregor0%
Kasper Høgh0%
H. Hassan0%
B. Nygren0%
Auston Trusty0%
S. Tounekti0%
L. Scales0%
V. Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
C. Durán0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
B. Nygren50%
Kieran Tierney40%
C. Durán33%
Yang Hyun-Jun17%
J. Forrest0%
C. McGregor0%
Kasper Høgh0%
C. Carter-Vickers0%
H. Hassan0%
Luke McCowan0%
Auston Trusty0%
S. Tounekti0%
L. Scales0%
V. Sinisalo0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Durán67%
Kasper Høgh50%
H. Hassan33%
B. Nygren33%
Kieran Tierney0%
J. Forrest0%
C. McGregor0%
C. Carter-Vickers0%
Luke McCowan0%
Auston Trusty0%
S. Tounekti0%
L. Scales0%
V. Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
ST Mirren's squad is €109m less valuable than Celtic's (€8m vs €116m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
ST Mirren's attack is €55m less valuable than Celtic's (€1m vs €56m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
ST Mirren's midfield is €17m less valuable than Celtic's (€3m vs €20m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
ST Mirren's defence is €38m less valuable than Celtic's (€3m vs €41m).
Scotland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Heart Of Midlothian
Motherwell
Dundee
Rangers
Hibernian
ST Johnstone
Dundee Utd
Aberdeen
Falkirk
Kilmarnock