ST Mirren’s home form shows a modest 0.89 goals per game and a 1.89 average conceded, while Dunfermline’s away average of 1.36 scored and 1.36 conceded against similar opposition signals a balanced but slightly more potent attack. The model therefore names a home win as the clear favourite, assigning it a 68 % probability, with a draw at 17 % and an away win at 15 %. The expected total goals is 4.1, yet the most likely total is 6 + goals, a 23 % chance. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for the home side, with an 8.5 % probability. The suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals at 95.7 %, Under 7.5 at 94.3 %, Home +2 handicap at 94.0 %, Under 25.5 fouls at 92.2 %, Under 6.5 at 87.9 %, and Home over 0.5 goals at 93.9 %. The model also lists Under 5.5 cards at 93.5 % and Over 1.5 at 92.1 %. The match-day context shows ST Mirren coming off a 1-5 loss to Rangers and Dunfermline after two straight defeats, a narrative that supports the home side’s advantage.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, ST Mirren, failed to deliver, as the match finished 0-1 in favour of Dunfermline. The model had picked a home win with a 68 % probability, but this call was wrong. The final score of 0-1 matched the actual result of an away win. The model’s selections were mixed: Away under 3.5 goals hit at 95.7 %, Under 7.5 hit at 94.3 %, Home +2 handicap hit at 94.0 %, Under 25.5 fouls hit at 92.2 %, and Under 6.5 hit at 87.9 %. The other picks - Home over 0.5 goals, Under 5.5 cards, and Over 1.5 - missed. ST Mirren’s recent form, a LWWLW run after a 1-5 loss to Rangers, and Dunfermline’s LLDDW streak following a 0-2 defeat to Livingston, set the stage for the upset.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
ST Mirren win✗ Miss
68.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
17.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline win✓ Hit
14.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
ST Mirren
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.53
0.92
1.50
1.39
1.56
vs Stronger (9)
0.89
1.56
1.00
0.33
0.83
2.17
vs Similar (20)
1.20
1.60
0.89
1.89
1.45
1.36
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunfermline
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
0.97
1.88
0.53
1.38
1.54
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
1.50
3.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (25)
1.48
0.92
1.57
0.57
1.36
1.36
vs Weaker (3)
3.00
1.00
3.50
0.50
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
92.1%
Under 1.5
7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
77.6%
Under 2.5
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
58.5%
Under 3.5
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
68.8%
No
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.5%
3-1
7.9%
1-1
6.7%
2-0
6.5%
3-0
6.1%
4-1
5.5%
2-2
5.5%
3-2
5.1%
ST Mirren goals ↓
Dunfermline goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.3%
1.6%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
1
4.1%
6.7%
3.9%
1.7%
0.5%
2
6.5%
8.5%
5.5%
2.4%
0.8%
3
6.1%
7.9%
5.1%
2.2%
0.7%
4
4.3%
5.5%
3.6%
1.6%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ST Mirren goals (down), columns = Dunfermline goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.60
Partick
2.50
ST Johnstone
2.40
Alloa Athletic
2.40
Motherwell
2.29
ST Mirren
2.25
Dunfermline
2.25
Celtic
2.25
Airdrie United
2.25
Kilmarnock
2.20
Rangers
2.00
Falkirk
2.00
Ayr Utd
1.80
Morton
1.80
Cove Rangers
1.75
Ross County
1.75
Aberdeen
1.50
Queen's Park
1.50
Spartans
1.50
Dumbarton
1.50
Livingston
1.50
Inverness CT
1.50
Raith Rovers
1.50
East Kilbride
1.50
Dundee
1.50
Hibernian
1.50
Clyde
1.25
Stranraer
1.25
Arbroath
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Forfar
1.00
East Fife
1.00
Hamilton Academical
0.75
Montrose
0.75
Queen of the South
0.75
Kelty Hearts
0.33
Edinburgh City
0.25
Annan Athletic
0.25
Stirling
0.00
Elgin
0.00
Dundee Utd
0.00
Peterhead
0.00
Brechin
0.00
ST Mirren and Dunfermline are level in average points per game (both 2.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Heart Of Midlothian
3.40
Raith Rovers
3.25
Celtic
3.00
ST Johnstone
3.00
Falkirk
3.00
Ayr Utd
2.80
ST Mirren
2.75
Ross County
2.75
East Kilbride
2.75
Rangers
2.33
Queen's Park
2.25
Dunfermline
2.25
Inverness CT
2.25
Partick
2.17
Morton
2.00
Livingston
2.00
Airdrie United
2.00
Dundee
2.00
Kilmarnock
1.80
Alloa Athletic
1.80
Motherwell
1.57
Aberdeen
1.50
Arbroath
1.50
Montrose
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Cove Rangers
1.25
Spartans
1.00
Annan Athletic
1.00
Dundee Utd
1.00
Peterhead
1.00
Hibernian
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Stenhousemuir
0.75
Hamilton Academical
0.75
Forfar
0.75
East Fife
0.67
Dumbarton
0.50
Elgin
0.50
Stranraer
0.50
Edinburgh City
0.25
Stirling
0.00
Kelty Hearts
0.00
Brechin
0.00
ST Mirren is 0.50 goals better than Dunfermline in terms of goals scored per game (2.75 vs 2.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.40
Aberdeen
0.50
Cove Rangers
0.50
Kilmarnock
0.60
ST Johnstone
0.60
Dundee
0.75
Stranraer
0.75
Ayr Utd
1.00
Partick
1.00
Livingston
1.00
Ross County
1.00
Airdrie United
1.00
Hibernian
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Motherwell
1.00
Falkirk
1.00
ST Mirren
1.12
Arbroath
1.25
Dunfermline
1.25
Celtic
1.25
Alloa Athletic
1.40
Queen's Park
1.50
Spartans
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.50
Forfar
1.50
Morton
1.60
Rangers
1.67
Hamilton Academical
1.75
Dumbarton
2.00
Dundee Utd
2.00
Inverness CT
2.00
Clyde
2.00
East Fife
2.00
Stirling
2.25
Raith Rovers
2.25
Peterhead
2.25
Kelty Hearts
2.33
Montrose
2.50
East Kilbride
3.00
Edinburgh City
4.00
Brechin
4.25
Elgin
4.75
Annan Athletic
5.25
ST Mirren is 0.12 goals better than Dunfermline in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
63%
ST Mirren
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
ST Mirren
For 5.4 · Against 5.5 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 11.7 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dunfermline
For 4.4 · Against 2.9 · Total 7.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.4 · Against 12.5 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Mirren
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
10.6
11.5
3.0
3.5
2.6
22.4
21.4
23.6
vs Stronger (18)
10.9
10.3
11.5
3.4
4.3
2.4
22.5
22.2
22.8
vs Similar (31)
11.1
10.7
11.5
2.9
2.9
2.8
22.4
20.6
24.2
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
72%
75%
68%
36%
58%
15%
59%
50%
68%
% under line
28%
25%
32%
64%
42%
85%
41%
50%
32%
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunfermline
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.8
7.8
7.7
1.2
0.9
1.5
22.7
23.3
22.1
vs Stronger (3)
9.0
13.0
5.0
1.3
1.0
2.0
19.5
24.0
15.0
vs Similar (42)
7.5
6.8
8.2
1.3
1.0
1.6
23.3
23.2
23.3
vs Weaker (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
23%
17%
29%
18%
11%
26%
62%
67%
57%
% under line
77%
83%
71%
82%
89%
74%
38%
33%
43%
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
ST Mirren
11.2
Ross County
10.9
Stirling
10.9
Morton
10.9
Hibernian
10.8
Celtic
10.7
Hamilton Academical
10.5
Dundee Utd
10.4
Partick
10.4
East Kilbride
10.4
Dumbarton
10.4
Rangers
10.4
Stranraer
10.3
Elgin
10.3
ST Johnstone
10.1
Airdrie United
10.1
Brechin
10.1
Alloa Athletic
10.0
Heart Of Midlothian
10.0
Ayr Utd
10.0
Aberdeen
10.0
Annan Athletic
9.9
Livingston
9.9
Falkirk
9.8
Clyde
9.8
Dundee
9.7
East Fife
9.6
Arbroath
9.6
Kelty Hearts
9.5
Kilmarnock
9.4
Cove Rangers
9.4
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.2
Inverness CT
9.1
Dunfermline
9.1
Forfar
9.1
Queen's Park
9.0
Peterhead
8.9
Stenhousemuir
8.5
Montrose
8.5
Motherwell
8.4
Queen of the South
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Edinburgh City
5.1
Peterhead
5.0
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Aberdeen
4.8
Motherwell
4.7
Hibernian
4.7
Morton
4.5
Heart Of Midlothian
4.4
Partick
4.4
Forfar
4.3
Elgin
4.3
Kilmarnock
4.2
Kelty Hearts
4.2
Rangers
4.2
Clyde
4.2
Livingston
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Spartans
4.1
Falkirk
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Dundee Utd
4.0
ST Johnstone
4.0
Ayr Utd
4.0
Celtic
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Montrose
3.7
Dundee
3.7
Arbroath
3.6
East Fife
3.5
Brechin
3.5
ST Mirren
3.5
Dumbarton
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2
Inverness CT
3.2
Queen of the South
3.0
Raith Rovers
3.0
Hamilton Academical
2.7
Queen's Park
2.5
Alloa Athletic
1.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
East Kilbride
26.4
Motherwell
25.9
Aberdeen
25.8
Rangers
25.8
Stenhousemuir
25.4
Livingston
25.3
Falkirk
24.7
Kilmarnock
24.4
Forfar
24.0
Edinburgh City
23.9
Heart Of Midlothian
23.5
East Fife
22.9
Elgin
22.7
Hibernian
22.6
Kelty Hearts
22.5
Stranraer
22.3
ST Johnstone
22.3
Annan Athletic
22.2
Montrose
22.2
Alloa Athletic
22.0
Ayr Utd
22.0
ST Mirren
22.0
Dundee
21.8
Dundee Utd
21.8
Celtic
21.7
Clyde
21.7
Morton
21.6
Inverness CT
21.6
Dunfermline
21.3
Stirling
21.1
Cove Rangers
21.0
Ross County
21.0
Arbroath
20.9
Dumbarton
20.5
Brechin
20.5
Spartans
20.4
Queen of the South
20.0
Airdrie United
20.0
Partick
19.9
Queen's Park
19.0
Hamilton Academical
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
31.9%
Under 9.5
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.8%
Under 3.5
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
28.5%
Under 21.5
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ST Mirren or Draw✗ Miss
85.3%
Avg Implied -
68%
17%
15%
covers ST Mirren + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren or Dunfermline✓ Hit
82.8%
Avg Implied -
68%
17%
15%
covers ST Mirren + Dunfermline
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dunfermline✓ Hit
31.8%
Avg Implied -
68%
17%
15%
covers Draw + Dunfermline
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
93.9%
Under
6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
76.9%
Under
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
53.1%
Under
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
30.8%
Under
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.6%
Under
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
37.2%
Under
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to ST Mirren, so a minus line means ST Mirren give that many goals of a start and Dunfermline receive them. At -1, ST Mirren must win by two or more to land; a one-goal ST Mirren win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (ST Mirren)Actual: Dunfermline
ST Mirren -2
29.7%
Draw -2
19.0%
Dunfermline +2
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (ST Mirren)Actual: Dunfermline
ST Mirren -1
48.7%
Draw -1
19.5%
Dunfermline +1
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (ST Mirren)Actual: Draw
ST Mirren +1
85.3%
Draw +1
8.7%
Dunfermline -1
6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (ST Mirren)Actual: ST Mirren
ST Mirren +2
94.0%
Draw +2
4.1%
Dunfermline -2
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ST Mirren
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.63
0.25
0.58
0.61
0.67
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.17
0.83
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.65
0.22
0.67
0.73
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunfermline
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.47
0.88
0.24
0.54
0.77
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.40
0.64
0.29
0.55
0.55
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.67
2.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ST Mirren
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.90
0.67
0.92
0.78
0.89
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
0.89
0.67
0.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.95
0.67
1.22
0.73
0.73
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunfermline
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.50
1.00
0.29
0.85
0.77
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.88
0.52
0.93
0.29
0.82
0.82
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 6.5
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 21.5 fouls
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (34)
€154m
RAN (25)
€127m
HOM (33)
€33m
HIB (31)
€30m
ABE (35)
€24m
MOT (28)
€21m
KIL (33)
€13m
DUN (30)
€12m
SM (26)
€8m
FAL (26)
€7m
LIV (29)
€6m
DUN (31)
€6m
SJ (26)
€5m
PAR (22)
€3m
RC (26)
€2m
MOR (26)
€2m
ARB (25)
€1m
KH (4)
€1m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
ST Mirren's squad is €2m more valuable than Dunfermline's (€8m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (9)
€59m
CEL (12)
€55m
HOM (12)
€19m
HIB (10)
€14m
MOT (10)
€12m
ABE (11)
€10m
KIL (12)
€5m
DUN (10)
€3m
SJ (9)
€3m
SM (9)
€3m
DUN (11)
€2m
FAL (10)
€2m
LIV (12)
€2m
RC (9)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
KH (3)
€1m
ARB (5)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
ST Mirren and Dunfermline have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (6)
€38m
RAN (6)
€28m
HIB (8)
€10m
HOM (8)
€9m
ABE (10)
€5m
DUN (8)
€5m
MOT (8)
€4m
SM (7)
€3m
KIL (6)
€3m
LIV (8)
€3m
FAL (5)
€2m
PAR (7)
€1m
SJ (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
MOR (9)
€1m
ARB (8)
€1m
RC (5)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
MON (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
ST Mirren's midfield is €2m more valuable than Dunfermline's (€3m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (16)
€60m
RAN (10)
€40m
ABE (14)
€8m
HIB (13)
€6m
MOT (10)
€6m
HOM (13)
€5m
KIL (15)
€5m
DUN (11)
€5m
FAL (11)
€3m
SM (10)
€2m
DUN (14)
€2m
LIV (9)
€2m
SJ (10)
€2m
PAR (9)
€1m
RC (12)
€1m
MOR (9)
€1m
ARB (12)
€1m
MON (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
ST Mirren and Dunfermline have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Scotland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
Scotland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Celtic
Dundee
Motherwell
Heart Of Midlothian
ST Johnstone
Hibernian
Aberdeen
Rangers
Falkirk
Dundee Utd
Kilmarnock
Stenhousemuir
Raith Rovers
Partick
Livingston
Ayr Utd
Arbroath
Inverness CT
Morton
Queen's Park