This opponent (Falkirk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Falkirk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.50
1.73
1.87
1.13
1.13
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
3.00
1.50
3.50
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (20)
1.35
1.20
1.70
1.40
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
0.00
3.00
0.00
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.8%
Under 1.5
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
42.3%
Under 2.5
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.5%
Under 3.5
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.4%
No
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0
10.7%
1-0
10.2%
0-1
9.3%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
7.1%
0-2
6.0%
ST Mirren goals ↓
Falkirk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.3%
6.0%
2.3%
0.6%
1
10%
14%
7.4%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.1%
8.1%
4.6%
1.7%
0.5%
3
2.9%
3.3%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ST Mirren goals (down), columns = Falkirk goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.16
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Rangers
1.89
Motherwell
1.61
Hibernian
1.50
Falkirk
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.18
Dundee
1.11
Kilmarnock
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.05
ST Mirren
0.95
ST Mirren is 0.34 points worse than Falkirk in terms of average points per game (0.95 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.00
Celtic
1.92
Heart Of Midlothian
1.76
Motherwell
1.55
Hibernian
1.53
Kilmarnock
1.32
Falkirk
1.32
Dundee Utd
1.29
Dundee
1.11
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.00
ST Mirren
0.80
ST Mirren is 0.52 goals worse than Falkirk in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 1.32).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Motherwell
0.95
Celtic
1.08
Rangers
1.13
Hibernian
1.16
ST Mirren
1.40
Aberdeen
1.45
ST Johnstone
1.56
Dundee Utd
1.58
Dundee
1.61
Falkirk
1.63
Kilmarnock
1.79
ST Mirren is 0.23 goals better than Falkirk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 1.63).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
66%
Rangers
58%
Motherwell
58%
Heart Of Midlothian
53%
Falkirk
51%
Aberdeen
48%
Hibernian
47%
ST Mirren
46%
Dundee
44%
Kilmarnock
42%
Dundee Utd
42%
ST Mirren is 4.5 percentage points worse than Falkirk in terms of average possession (46% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
ST Mirren
For 5.6 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 10.4 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Falkirk
For 4.8 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 13.0 · Total 26.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Mirren
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
11.2
11.0
1.9
2.0
1.9
23.2
20.2
25.5
vs Stronger (18)
10.6
11.3
10.2
1.3
1.1
1.5
23.2
22.7
23.5
vs Similar (31)
11.3
11.1
11.6
2.4
2.5
2.2
23.2
19.4
26.9
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
70%
75%
67%
24%
32%
18%
74%
58%
87%
% under line
30%
25%
33%
76%
68%
82%
26%
42%
13%
This opponent (Falkirk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Falkirk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.0
10.5
2.4
2.7
2.2
24.7
25.2
24.0
vs Stronger (9)
10.0
8.0
12.7
2.9
2.8
3.0
22.1
24.0
19.7
vs Similar (38)
9.6
9.5
9.8
2.4
2.7
2.2
25.4
25.4
25.3
vs Weaker (3)
7.0
7.0
-
0.7
2.0
0.0
27.0
27.0
-
% over line
57%
47%
69%
38%
40%
36%
70%
71%
69%
% under line
43%
53%
31%
62%
60%
64%
30%
29%
31%
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
ST Mirren
11.1
Celtic
11.0
Dundee Utd
10.5
Hibernian
10.5
Aberdeen
10.4
Heart Of Midlothian
10.3
Rangers
10.1
ST Johnstone
10.1
Dundee
9.7
Falkirk
9.6
Kilmarnock
9.5
Motherwell
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aberdeen
4.7
Motherwell
4.7
Hibernian
4.6
Heart Of Midlothian
4.6
Rangers
4.3
Kilmarnock
4.2
Falkirk
4.2
Dundee Utd
4.1
ST Johnstone
4.0
Celtic
3.8
Dundee
3.7
ST Mirren
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rangers
26.7
Motherwell
25.9
Aberdeen
25.6
Falkirk
25.4
Heart Of Midlothian
24.6
Kilmarnock
24.2
Hibernian
23.2
ST Mirren
22.2
ST Johnstone
22.2
Dundee
21.9
Dundee Utd
21.9
Celtic
21.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
58.9%
Under 9.5
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
61.5%
Under 3.5
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
63.8%
Under 21.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ST Mirren or Draw
67.7%
Avg Implied -
37%
30%
32%
covers ST Mirren + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren or Falkirk
69.6%
Avg Implied -
37%
30%
32%
covers ST Mirren + Falkirk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Falkirk
62.8%
Avg Implied -
37%
30%
32%
covers Draw + Falkirk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5
Over
70.9%
Under
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5
Over
35.0%
Under
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5
Over
12.8%
Under
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 3.5
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 0.5
Over
67.9%
Under
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 1.5
Over
31.4%
Under
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 2.5
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 3.5
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to ST Mirren, so a minus line means ST Mirren give that many goals of a start and Falkirk receive them. At -1, ST Mirren must win by two or more to land; a one-goal ST Mirren win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (ST Mirren)
ST Mirren -2
5.7%
Draw -2
11.1%
Falkirk +2
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (ST Mirren)
ST Mirren -1
16.8%
Draw -1
20.5%
Falkirk +1
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (ST Mirren)
ST Mirren +1
67.7%
Draw +1
18.7%
Falkirk -1
13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (ST Mirren)
ST Mirren +2
86.3%
Draw +2
9.4%
Falkirk -2
4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ST Mirren
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.43
0.64
0.81
0.69
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.88
0.33
0.33
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.62
0.45
0.73
0.90
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Falkirk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Falkirk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.80
1.07
1.00
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.57
1.25
1.50
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.65
0.90
0.90
0.50
0.40
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ST Mirren
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.64
0.79
0.75
0.62
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.50
0.67
0.00
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.81
0.64
1.00
0.70
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Falkirk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Falkirk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.67
0.87
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.43
0.25
2.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.55
0.80
0.50
0.50
0.60
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Falkirk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
ST Mirren
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
D. John33%
Samuel Ramos33%
P. Nsio25%
Luke Thomas0%
Alexander Gogić0%
C. Mochrie0%
J. Richardson0%
J. Chapman0%
J. Young0%
Henry Fieldson0%
Ryan Carr0%
Eseosa Sule0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ryan Carr75%
Henry Fieldson33%
Luke Thomas25%
J. Richardson25%
J. Young25%
D. John0%
Alexander Gogić0%
C. Mochrie0%
J. Chapman0%
P. Nsio0%
Eseosa Sule0%
Samuel Ramos0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Henry Fieldson33%
Samuel Ramos33%
Alexander Gogić25%
D. John0%
Luke Thomas0%
C. Mochrie0%
J. Richardson0%
J. Chapman0%
J. Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
P. Nsio0%
Eseosa Sule0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Eseosa Sule50%
D. John0%
Luke Thomas0%
Alexander Gogić0%
C. Mochrie0%
J. Richardson0%
J. Chapman0%
J. Young0%
Henry Fieldson0%
Ryan Carr0%
P. Nsio0%
Samuel Ramos0%
Falkirk
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Scott Bain0%
Ryan Strain0%
Ethan Ross0%
Liam Henderson0%
Ross Maclver0%
L. McCann0%
L. Neilson0%
D. Meļņiks0%
Ben Parkinson0%
Aodhan Doherty0%
Finley Frank Barbrook0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
L. Neilson33%
Ethan Ross25%
L. McCann25%
Aodhan Doherty25%
Scott Bain0%
Ryan Strain0%
Liam Henderson0%
Ross Maclver0%
D. Meļņiks0%
Ben Parkinson0%
Finley Frank Barbrook0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Scott Bain0%
Ryan Strain0%
Ethan Ross0%
Liam Henderson0%
Ross Maclver0%
L. McCann0%
L. Neilson0%
D. Meļņiks0%
Ben Parkinson0%
Aodhan Doherty0%
Finley Frank Barbrook0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ethan Ross25%
Scott Bain0%
Ryan Strain0%
Liam Henderson0%
Ross Maclver0%
L. McCann0%
L. Neilson0%
D. Meļņiks0%
Ben Parkinson0%
Aodhan Doherty0%
Finley Frank Barbrook0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
ST Mirren's squad is €1m more valuable than Falkirk's (€8m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
ST Mirren and Falkirk have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
ST Mirren's midfield is €2m more valuable than Falkirk's (€3m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
ST Mirren and Falkirk have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Scotland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Heart Of Midlothian
Motherwell
Dundee
Rangers
Hibernian
ST Johnstone
Dundee Utd
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock