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ST Mirren vs Heart Of Midlothian Result & Analysis

Date: 16/08/2025
Time: 14:00
Final 1-1
ST Mirren
ST Mirren
Vs
27%
22%
51%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Heart Of Midlothian
Heart Of Midlothian
Scotland: League Cup
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

ST Mirren win✗ Miss
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
22.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian win✗ Miss
50.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ST MirrenST Mirren

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-810W20W22D11D00D21W82W21W01L00DH·ABE03/05A·DUN10/05H·HIB14/05A·CEL17/05A·ARB12/07A·FOR15/07H·ANN19/07H·AYR27/07A·CEL03/08H·MOT09/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.331.931.401.401.27
vs Stronger (13)1.311.461.431.571.171.33
vs Similar (14)1.431.211.571.141.291.29
vs Weaker (3)4.331.338.002.002.501.00
Clean sheet %23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W30W21W10W41W40W40W40W20W32WA·ROS03/05H·MOT10/05H·ST 14/05A·KIL18/05H·DUN12/07A·HAM15/07A·STI19/07H·DUM23/07H·ABE04/08A·DUN10/08
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.070.902.000.932.130.87
vs Stronger (2)0.503.001.003.000.003.00
vs Similar (11)1.180.731.330.671.000.80
vs Weaker (17)2.820.762.620.883.000.67
Clean sheet %40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%16%21%3%07%118%221%319%414%517%6+
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.4%
Under 1.5
10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
71.9%
Under 2.5
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
51.1%
Under 3.5
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
70.8%
No
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
9.0%
1-2
8.8%
2-2
6.9%
1-3
6.4%
2-1
6.4%
0-2
5.6%
2-3
5.0%
0-1
4.4%
ST Mirren goals ↓
Heart Of Midlothian goals →
01234
03.2%4.4%5.6%4.1%2.2%
12.9%9.0%8.8%6.4%3.4%
22.9%6.4%6.9%5.0%2.7%
31.5%3.3%3.6%2.6%1.4%
40.6%1.3%1.4%1.0%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ST Mirren goals (down), columns = Heart Of Midlothian goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Aberdeen
2.57
Celtic
2.50
Dundee
2.50
Rangers
2.50
Ross County
2.40
Livingston
2.25
Ayr Utd
2.25
Dundee Utd
2.00
Spartans
2.00
Falkirk
2.00
Airdrie United
1.80
Hibernian
1.80
ST Johnstone
1.80
Queen's Park
1.80
Partick
1.75
Raith Rovers
1.75
Montrose
1.75
East Fife
1.75
Alloa Athletic
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.75
Motherwell
1.71
Morton
1.50
Peterhead
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Hamilton Academical
1.25
Kilmarnock
1.00
Inverness CT
1.00
Arbroath
1.00
Cove Rangers
1.00
Kelty Hearts
1.00
Forfar
1.00
Dunfermline
0.75
Stenhousemuir
0.75
Stirling
0.50
Dumbarton
0.25
East Kilbride
0.25
Stranraer
0.25
Elgin
0.25
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
0.25
ST Mirren
0.00
Heart Of Midlothian
0.00
Brechin
0.00
Edinburgh City
0.00
ST Mirren and Heart Of Midlothian are level in average points per game (both 0.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Celtic
4.25
Dundee
4.00
Airdrie United
3.20
Queen's Park
3.20
Hibernian
3.00
Aberdeen
2.86
Partick
2.75
Falkirk
2.50
Rangers
2.50
Ayr Utd
2.25
Clyde
2.25
ST Johnstone
2.20
Dundee Utd
2.00
Ross County
2.00
East Fife
2.00
Raith Rovers
1.75
Alloa Athletic
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.75
Montrose
1.50
Motherwell
1.43
Spartans
1.33
Hamilton Academical
1.25
Livingston
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Peterhead
1.25
Queen of the South
1.25
Dumbarton
1.00
Dunfermline
1.00
Stranraer
1.00
Inverness CT
0.75
Morton
0.75
Cove Rangers
0.75
Elgin
0.75
Forfar
0.75
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
0.75
Brechin
0.50
East Kilbride
0.50
Kelty Hearts
0.50
Stirling
0.50
Arbroath
0.25
Edinburgh City
0.25
ST Mirren
0.00
Kilmarnock
0.00
Heart Of Midlothian
0.00
ST Mirren and Heart Of Midlothian are level in goals scored per game (both 0.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kilmarnock
0.00
Livingston
0.25
Motherwell
0.71
Hamilton Academical
0.75
Ross County
0.80
ST Mirren
1.00
Hibernian
1.00
Dundee
1.00
Aberdeen
1.00
Rangers
1.00
Raith Rovers
1.00
Forfar
1.00
Dundee Utd
1.17
Spartans
1.17
Falkirk
1.17
Queen's Park
1.20
Ayr Utd
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Partick
1.25
Dunfermline
1.25
Montrose
1.25
East Fife
1.25
Alloa Athletic
1.25
Annan Athletic
1.25
ST Johnstone
1.40
Celtic
1.50
Morton
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Inverness CT
1.75
Heart Of Midlothian
2.00
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Stirling
2.00
Airdrie United
2.20
Cove Rangers
2.25
Brechin
2.50
Stranraer
2.50
Stenhousemuir
2.75
Peterhead
2.75
Dumbarton
3.25
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
3.25
Elgin
3.50
East Kilbride
4.00
Edinburgh City
4.00
ST Mirren is 1.00 goals better than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

ST MirrenST Mirren

For 4.7 · Against 7.2 · Total 11.9

🚩 Corners

160741121456645113367104471113141110166131411H·MOTA·CELA·CELH·HIBA·DUNH·ABEH·RANH·ROSA·DUNH·KIL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.7

🟨 Cards

605112123332323111216333625423H·MOTA·CELH·AYRA·CELH·HIBA·DUNH·ABEH·RANH·ROSA·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 9.3 · Total 19.2

⚠️ Fouls

25016561061212135610111111989815921161825112122171724H·MOTA·CELA·CELH·HIBA·DUNH·ABEH·RANH·ROSA·DUNH·KIL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian

For 5.8 · Against 3.4 · Total 9.2

🚩 Corners

17092334387611347323521611671571710577A·DUNH·ABEA·KILH·ST H·MOTA·ROSH·DUNA·MOTH·DUNA·CEL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.9

🟨 Cards

704332211222111432417533425361A·DUNH·ABEA·KILH·ST H·MOTA·ROSH·DUNA·MOTH·DUNA·CEL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 11.8 · Total 23.7

⚠️ Fouls

3701114191813147917104579181214139142537271627916302723A·DUNH·ABEA·KILH·ST H·MOTA·ROSH·DUNA·MOTH·DUNA·CEL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ST MirrenST Mirren

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.310.69.93.83.93.821.520.822.3
vs Stronger (23)10.510.210.84.34.44.121.820.622.8
vs Similar (24)10.010.98.93.93.74.221.321.021.7
vs Weaker (3)---0.00.00.0---
% over line63%67%60%50%46%54%54%48%60%
% under line37%33%40%50%54%46%46%52%40%
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.110.69.63.33.43.122.022.521.6
vs Stronger (6)10.212.09.22.52.02.819.316.520.8
vs Similar (19)8.99.97.94.23.94.424.425.823.1
vs Weaker (25)11.311.011.62.83.32.220.620.720.4
% over line48%57%38%44%56%32%55%57%52%
% under line52%43%62%56%44%68%45%43%48%
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
East Kilbride
13.5
Celtic
11.7
Ross County
11.6
Hibernian
11.5
Motherwell
11.4
Aberdeen
11.4
Falkirk
11.2
Morton
11.2
Dundee Utd
11.1
Dumbarton
10.8
Rangers
10.8
Kilmarnock
10.7
Dundee
10.6
Airdrie United
10.6
ST Johnstone
10.5
ST Mirren
10.5
Dunfermline
10.5
Partick
10.2
Heart Of Midlothian
10.2
Stirling
10.2
Arbroath
10.1
Kelty Hearts
10.0
Brechin
10.0
Annan Athletic
10.0
Clyde
9.9
Cove Rangers
9.8
East Fife
9.6
Forfar
9.6
Stenhousemuir
9.4
Elgin
9.3
Montrose
9.2
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.1
Stranraer
9.1
Livingston
9.0
Inverness CT
8.8
Peterhead
8.6

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
7.5
Peterhead
5.2
Hamilton Academical
5.0
Elgin
4.7
Morton
4.7
Ayr Utd
4.7
Aberdeen
4.6
Edinburgh City
4.6
Forfar
4.6
Dundee Utd
4.5
Stirling
4.4
ST Mirren
4.3
Motherwell
4.2
Hibernian
4.2
Clyde
4.2
Falkirk
4.2
Heart Of Midlothian
4.1
East Fife
4.1
Rangers
4.0
Partick
4.0
Stranraer
4.0
Spartans
4.0
ST Johnstone
3.9
Kilmarnock
3.9
Livingston
3.8
Dundee
3.7
Annan Athletic
3.6
Montrose
3.6
Dunfermline
3.6
Dumbarton
3.6
Stenhousemuir
3.6
Celtic
3.6
Brechin
3.5
Airdrie United
3.5
Kelty Hearts
3.3
Ross County
3.3
Inverness CT
3.3
Arbroath
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
Cove Rangers
2.8

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
East Kilbride
31.0
Forfar
24.8
Peterhead
24.7
Elgin
23.9
Edinburgh City
23.9
Livingston
23.7
Aberdeen
23.5
East Fife
23.3
Clyde
22.6
Falkirk
22.3
Spartans
22.3
Morton
22.2
Motherwell
22.2
ST Johnstone
22.2
Kilmarnock
22.0
Stenhousemuir
22.0
Heart Of Midlothian
21.9
Stirling
21.7
Rangers
21.5
Inverness CT
21.3
Dundee Utd
21.2
ST Mirren
21.1
Ross County
20.7
Airdrie United
20.4
Brechin
20.4
Montrose
20.1
Stranraer
20.1
Annan Athletic
20.0
Partick
20.0
Dunfermline
19.9
Arbroath
19.9
Hibernian
19.8
Dundee
19.7
Kelty Hearts
19.6
Cove Rangers
19.0
Dumbarton
19.0
Celtic
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
46.7%
Under 9.5
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.0%
Under 3.5
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
66.6%
Under 21.5
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ST Mirren or Draw✓ Hit
49.3%
Avg Implied -
27%
22%
51%
covers ST Mirren + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren or Heart Of Midlothian✗ Miss
77.7%
Avg Implied -
27%
22%
51%
covers ST Mirren + Heart Of Midlothian
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Heart Of Midlothian✓ Hit
73.0%
Avg Implied -
27%
22%
51%
covers Draw + Heart Of Midlothian
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.0%
Under
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
46.2%
Under
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
20.7%
Under
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
88.5%
Under
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
63.7%
Under
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
36.8%
Under
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
17.4%
Under
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to ST Mirren, so a minus line means ST Mirren give that many goals of a start and Heart Of Midlothian receive them. At -1, ST Mirren must win by two or more to land; a one-goal ST Mirren win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (ST Mirren)Actual: Heart Of Midlothian
ST Mirren -2
4.9%
Draw -2
8.0%
Heart Of Midlothian +2
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (ST Mirren)Actual: Heart Of Midlothian
ST Mirren -1
12.9%
Draw -1
14.1%
Heart Of Midlothian +1
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (ST Mirren)Actual: ST Mirren
ST Mirren +1
49.3%
Draw +1
19.8%
Heart Of Midlothian -1
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (ST Mirren)Actual: ST Mirren
ST Mirren +2
69.1%
Draw +2
15.4%
Heart Of Midlothian -2
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ST MirrenST Mirren

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W12L00D00D10W31W20W00D00DH·ABE03/05A·DUN10/05H·HIB14/05A·CEL17/05A·ARB12/07A·FOR15/07H·ANN19/07H·AYR27/07A·CEL03/08H·MOT09/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.430.930.530.730.33
vs Stronger (13)0.620.540.710.710.500.33
vs Similar (14)0.790.360.860.290.710.43
vs Weaker (3)2.000.333.001.001.500.00
Clean sheet %67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W20W00D11D20W30W20W10W12LA·ROS03/05H·MOT10/05H·ST 14/05A·KIL18/05H·DUN12/07A·HAM15/07A·STI19/07H·DUM23/07H·ABE04/08A·DUN10/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.500.870.400.870.60
vs Stronger (2)0.002.000.001.000.003.00
vs Similar (11)0.640.450.830.330.400.60
vs Weaker (17)1.120.351.000.381.220.33
Clean sheet %60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ST MirrenST Mirren

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W10W10W11D00D11D51W01L01L00DH·ABE03/05A·DUN10/05H·HIB14/05A·CEL17/05A·ARB12/07A·FOR15/07H·ANN19/07H·AYR27/07A·CEL03/08H·MOT09/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.901.000.870.670.93
vs Stronger (13)0.690.920.710.860.671.00
vs Similar (14)0.640.860.710.860.570.86
vs Weaker (3)2.331.005.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W20W01L10W30W20W10W20W10W20WA·ROS03/05H·MOT10/05H·ST 14/05A·KIL18/05H·DUN12/07A·HAM15/07A·STI19/07H·DUM23/07H·ABE04/08A·DUN10/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.401.130.531.270.27
vs Stronger (2)0.501.001.002.000.000.00
vs Similar (11)0.550.270.500.330.600.20
vs Weaker (17)1.710.411.620.501.780.33
Clean sheet %70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 7.596.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards95.9%-------✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals92.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 6.591.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.589.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards89.3%-------✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals88.5%-------✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap87.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.582.6%-------✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals82.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls80.5%--------
Home under 2.5 goals79.3%-------✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals79.0%-------✓ Hit
Home or Away77.7%-------✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners76.1%--------
Under 3.5 cards76.0%-------✗ Miss
Draw or Away73.0%-------✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap73.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.571.9%-------✗ Miss
BTTS Yes70.8%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

ST Mirren
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jake Young15%
Jonah Ayunga13%
Mikael Mandron11%
Dan N'Lundulu11%
Miguel Freckleton11%
Killian Phillips8%
Keanu Baccus6%
Richard King6%
Alexander Gogić6%
Liam Donnelly6%
Scott Tanser5%
Conor McMenamin4%
Declan John3%
Marcus Fraser3%
Mark O'Hara0%
Kion Etete0%
Ross Sinclair0%
Allan Campbell0%
Shamal George0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Tunmise Sobowale0%
Malik Dijksteel0%
Fraser Taylor0%
Roland Idowu0%
Jalmaro Calvin0%
Jacob Devaney0%
Evan Mooney0%
Luke Douglas0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Keanu Baccus38%
Alexander Gogić36%
Killian Phillips24%
Fraser Taylor22%
Richard King22%
Marcus Fraser19%
Roland Idowu19%
Miguel Freckleton19%
Liam Donnelly18%
Jacob Devaney15%
Mikael Mandron11%
Shamal George9%
Allan Campbell8%
Dan N'Lundulu7%
Mark O'Hara4%
Jonah Ayunga4%
Conor McMenamin4%
Declan John3%
Jayden Richardson3%
Kion Etete0%
Ross Sinclair0%
Scott Tanser0%
Tunmise Sobowale0%
Jake Young0%
Malik Dijksteel0%
Jalmaro Calvin0%
Evan Mooney0%
Luke Douglas0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Scott Tanser18%
Declan John17%
Mikael Mandron14%
Jacob Devaney8%
Mark O'Hara4%
Conor McMenamin4%
Richard King3%
Alexander Gogić3%
Shamal George3%
Miguel Freckleton3%
Keanu Baccus0%
Kion Etete0%
Jonah Ayunga0%
Ross Sinclair0%
Liam Donnelly0%
Allan Campbell0%
Marcus Fraser0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Dan N'Lundulu0%
Tunmise Sobowale0%
Killian Phillips0%
Jake Young0%
Malik Dijksteel0%
Fraser Taylor0%
Roland Idowu0%
Jalmaro Calvin0%
Evan Mooney0%
Luke Douglas0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luke Douglas33%
Jonah Ayunga9%
Killian Phillips8%
Roland Idowu8%
Dan N'Lundulu7%
Keanu Baccus6%
Liam Donnelly6%
Alexander Gogić3%
Mark O'Hara0%
Mikael Mandron0%
Kion Etete0%
Declan John0%
Ross Sinclair0%
Scott Tanser0%
Allan Campbell0%
Marcus Fraser0%
Shamal George0%
Conor McMenamin0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Tunmise Sobowale0%
Jake Young0%
Malik Dijksteel0%
Richard King0%
Fraser Taylor0%
Jalmaro Calvin0%
Miguel Freckleton0%
Jacob Devaney0%
Evan Mooney0%
Heart Of Midlothian
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lawrence Shankland52%
Cláudio Braga32%
Craig Halkett13%
Pierre Landry Kaboré12%
Stuart Findlay12%
Tomas Magnusson11%
Alexandros Kyziridis11%
Islam Chesnokov10%
Stephen Kingsley10%
Blair Spittal8%
Marc Leonard8%
Cameron Devlin7%
Oisin McEntee7%
Frankie Kent5%
Harry Milne3%
Craig Gordon0%
Michael Steinwender0%
Beni Baningime0%
Alexander Schwolow0%
Elton Kabangu0%
Zander Clark0%
Jamie McCart0%
Alan Forrest0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Rogers Mato0%
Ageu0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Craig Halkett30%
Harry Milne27%
Marc Leonard23%
Cameron Devlin21%
Christian Borchgrevink20%
Oisin McEntee18%
Stuart Findlay15%
Ageu14%
Lawrence Shankland14%
Alexandros Kyziridis13%
Michael Steinwender12%
Blair Spittal12%
Tomas Magnusson11%
Frankie Kent10%
Islam Chesnokov10%
Pierre Landry Kaboré8%
Beni Baningime8%
Alan Forrest8%
Jordi Altena6%
Cláudio Braga5%
Jamie McCart5%
Stephen Kingsley5%
Craig Gordon0%
Alexander Schwolow0%
Elton Kabangu0%
Zander Clark0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marc Leonard23%
Harry Milne20%
Alexandros Kyziridis18%
Sabah Kerjota11%
Oisin McEntee11%
Lawrence Shankland10%
Blair Spittal8%
Pierre Landry Kaboré8%
Cláudio Braga8%
Michael Steinwender6%
Jordi Altena6%
Stephen Kingsley5%
Beni Baningime4%
Stuart Findlay3%
Craig Gordon0%
Cameron Devlin0%
Frankie Kent0%
Alexander Schwolow0%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Elton Kabangu0%
Zander Clark0%
Craig Halkett0%
Jamie McCart0%
Alan Forrest0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Islam Chesnokov0%
Rogers Mato0%
Ageu0%
James Wilson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Lawrence Shankland45%
Cláudio Braga39%
Pierre Landry Kaboré8%
Marc Leonard8%
Harry Milne7%
Alexandros Kyziridis5%
Stuart Findlay3%
Craig Gordon0%
Cameron Devlin0%
Michael Steinwender0%
Frankie Kent0%
Stephen Kingsley0%
Beni Baningime0%
Alexander Schwolow0%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Elton Kabangu0%
Zander Clark0%
Craig Halkett0%
Jamie McCart0%
Alan Forrest0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Islam Chesnokov0%
Rogers Mato0%
Ageu0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
KH (4)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
ST Mirren's squad is €14m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€8m vs €22m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
ST Mirren's attack is €11m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€1m vs €12m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
ST Mirren's midfield is €1m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€3m vs €4m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
ST Mirren's defence is €2m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€3m vs €6m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
SM wins
2
Draws
4
HOM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

ST Mirren vs Heart Of Midlothian · H/A from SM
DateH/AGameScore
26/02/25AHeart Of Midlothian Vs SM3-1
10/02/25HSM Vs Heart Of Midlothian1-1
19/10/24AHeart Of Midlothian Vs SM4-0
21/09/24HSM Vs Heart Of Midlothian2-1
15/05/24HSM Vs Heart Of Midlothian2-2
06/04/24HSM Vs Heart Of Midlothian1-2
23/12/23AHeart Of Midlothian Vs SM2-0
23/09/23HSM Vs Heart Of Midlothian1-0

ST MirrenST Mirren

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/08/25HSM Vs Motherwell0-0
03/08/25ACeltic Vs SM1-0
27/07/25HSM Vs Ayr Utd2-1
19/07/25HSM Vs Annan Athletic8-2
15/07/25AForfar Vs SM1-2
12/07/25AArbroath Vs SM0-0
17/05/25ACeltic Vs SM1-1
14/05/25HSM Vs Hibernian2-2
10/05/25ADundee Utd Vs SM0-2
03/05/25HSM Vs Aberdeen1-0

Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/08/25ADundee Utd Vs HOM2-3
04/08/25HHOM Vs Aberdeen2-0
23/07/25HHOM Vs Dumbarton4-0
19/07/25AStirling Vs HOM0-4
15/07/25AHamilton Academical Vs HOM0-4
12/07/25HHOM Vs Dunfermline4-1
18/05/25AKilmarnock Vs HOM0-1
14/05/25HHOM Vs ST Johnstone2-1
10/05/25HHOM Vs Motherwell3-0
03/05/25ARoss County Vs HOM1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

ST Mirren
ST Mirren
Scotland: League Cup
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLD1.38
HomeWDWWD1.58
AwayWDDWL1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%42%33%
AVG goals2.943.042.83
Over 1.5 %78%69%88%
Over 2.5 %62%62%62%
Over 3.5 %34%35%33%
Scored1.501.771.21
Conceded1.441.271.62
BTTS58%62%54%
Clean Sheet18%19%17%
Corners10.2710.579.95
Cards4.574.594.55
Heart Of Midlothian
Heart Of Midlothian
Scotland: League Cup
Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.68
HomeWWWWW1.84
AwayWWWWW1.52
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%56%44%
AVG goals2.842.922.76
Over 1.5 %82%88%76%
Over 2.5 %56%56%56%
Over 3.5 %34%36%32%
Scored1.721.841.60
Conceded1.121.081.16
BTTS52%56%48%
Clean Sheet30%32%28%
Corners10.1010.629.57
Cards3.984.103.85

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1CelticCeltic3882
68%
2.2
7341+32
3.0
82%
68%
42%
10.6
61%
4.1
55%
21.8
37%
116
5620411.91.1
66%
2Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian3880
63%
2.1
6734+33
2.7
71%
53%
29%
10.1
63%
4.7
63%
24.3
61%
22
12461.80.9
53%
3RangersRangers3872
53%
1.9
7643+33
3.1
82%
61%
37%
10.6
63%
4.2
58%
25.5
76%
136
3844542.01.1
58%
4MotherwellMotherwell3861
42%
1.6
5936+23
2.5
76%
39%
29%
8.1
32%
4.9
71%
26.3
79%
16
10151.60.9
58%
5HibernianHibernian3857
39%
1.5
5844+14
2.7
76%
55%
29%
10.6
68%
4.4
61%
23.2
66%
20
7851.51.2
47%
6FalkirkFalkirk3849
37%
1.3
5062-12
2.9
74%
58%
34%
9.6
53%
4.2
63%
25.3
76%
6
2131.31.6
51%
7Dundee UtdDundee Utd3845
26%
1.2
4960-11
2.9
89%
50%
34%
10.0
55%
4.2
61%
22.8
53%
11
4341.31.6
42%
8DundeeDundee3842
29%
1.1
4261-19
2.7
71%
58%
34%
9.5
61%
3.7
51%
22.9
55%
5
1221.11.6
44%
9AberdeenAberdeen3840
29%
1.1
4055-15
2.5
74%
34%
24%
10.0
58%
4.9
69%
26.4
95%
15
4471.11.4
48%
10KilmarnockKilmarnock3840
26%
1.1
5068-18
3.1
84%
66%
42%
9.7
53%
4.5
71%
25.0
74%
7
3231.31.8
42%
11ST MirrenST Mirren4038
22%
0.9
3256-24
2.2
68%
30%
15%
11.1
71%
3.3
38%
22.3
58%
8
1330.81.4
46%
12LivingstonLivingston3821
5%
0.6
4075-35
3.0
84%
63%
39%
10.4
58%
4.2
65%
25.2
71%
4
1111.12.0
45%
13PartickPartick45
25%
1.2
44+0
2.0
75%
25%
0%
-
0%
3.5
50%
-
0%
3
1111.01.0
-
14DunfermlineDunfermline45
25%
1.2
33+0
1.5
50%
25%
0%
9.0
50%
6.0
100%
22.5
100%
4
2020.80.8
50%
15ArbroathArbroath21
0%
0.5
01-1
0.5
0%
0%
0%
9.0
50%
6.0
100%
22.5
100%
1
0000.00.5
50%
Scotland: Premiership 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →

← all matches