ST Mirren’s recent draw against Motherwell and Hibernian’s win over Dundee set the stage for a tight encounter, yet the model still favours an away win. The probabilities are 22% for a home win, 34% for a draw and 44% for an away win, making the latter the most likely outcome. The expected total of 1.9 goals points to a low-scoring affair, with the single most likely scoreline being 0-0 at 16.6%. ST Mirren, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.25 goals scored and 2.5 conceded, while Hibernian, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.12 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Under 3.5 at 87.8%, Over 19.5 fouls at 86.5%, Over 2.5 cards at 80.4%, Over 21.5 fouls at 75.1%, Under 5.5 cards at 73.5% and Under 2.5 at 70.9% with a 14% edge. All selections are presented with their exact probabilities.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Hibernian, failed to deliver as the match finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s pick wrong. The game saw a tight 1-1 scoreline, with both sides unable to break the deadlock. The model had given the away side a 44% chance of victory, but the outcome was a stalemate. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 3.5 goals hit at 87.8%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 86.5%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 80.4%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 75.1%, and Under 2.5 hit at 70.9%. Only Under 5.5 cards missed, with a 73.5% probability. The game reflected the recent form, with ST Mirren coming off a draw and Hibernian a win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
ST Mirren win✗ Miss
22.2%
Avg Implied 34.1% · @ 2.77
Edge
-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
33.6%
Avg Implied 29.7% · @ 3.18
Edge
+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hibernian win✗ Miss
44.2%
Avg Implied 36.2% · @ 2.61
Edge
+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
ST Mirren
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.50
0.67
1.07
1.20
1.93
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
2.70
1.25
2.50
0.50
2.83
vs Similar (20)
1.00
0.90
0.45
0.55
1.67
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.03
1.07
1.00
1.13
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.50
0.25
1.25
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (9)
1.00
1.00
0.75
1.50
1.20
0.60
vs Weaker (15)
1.40
0.87
1.71
0.57
1.12
1.12
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
57.3%
Under 1.5
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
29.1%
@ 2.20-13.8%
Under 2.5
70.9%
@ 1.65+13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.2%
Under 3.5
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
36.7%
No
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.6%
0-1
16.2%
1-1 ✓
14.1%
0-2
10.0%
1-0
9.9%
1-2
7.4%
2-1
4.7%
2-0
4.1%
ST Mirren goals ↓
Hibernian goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
17%
16%
10%
3.8%
1.1%
1
9.9%
14%
7.4%
2.8%
0.8%
2
4.1%
4.7%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
3
1.0%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ST Mirren goals (down), columns = Hibernian goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.45
Rangers
2.34
Heart Of Midlothian
1.61
Livingston
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.26
Motherwell
1.21
Hibernian
1.18
ST Mirren
1.16
Aberdeen
1.08
Ross County
1.08
ST Johnstone
0.92
Dundee
0.76
ST Mirren is 0.03 points worse than Hibernian in terms of average points per game (1.16 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.42
Rangers
2.11
Heart Of Midlothian
1.42
Ross County
1.24
Motherwell
1.11
Aberdeen
1.08
Livingston
1.08
Hibernian
1.00
Dundee Utd
0.97
Dundee
0.89
ST Mirren
0.87
ST Johnstone
0.63
ST Mirren is 0.13 goals worse than Hibernian in terms of goals scored per game (0.87 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.58
Rangers
0.82
Hibernian
1.11
Dundee Utd
1.16
Heart Of Midlothian
1.16
Aberdeen
1.21
Livingston
1.21
ST Mirren
1.34
ST Johnstone
1.34
Motherwell
1.61
Ross County
1.61
Dundee
1.68
ST Mirren is 0.24 goals worse than Hibernian in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 1.11).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
ST Mirren
For 6.4 · Against 4.6 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 12.6 · Total 24.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hibernian
For 5.7 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 12.2 · Total 24.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Mirren
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
9.8
10.9
3.3
3.6
3.0
24.5
24.9
24.2
vs Stronger (18)
9.4
8.2
10.7
3.2
3.9
2.4
24.7
26.1
23.3
vs Similar (32)
10.8
10.6
11.1
3.4
3.4
3.4
24.4
24.2
24.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
58%
56%
60%
40%
48%
32%
74%
80%
68%
% under line
42%
44%
40%
60%
52%
68%
26%
20%
32%
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.4
9.5
3.4
3.0
3.8
24.9
24.4
25.4
vs Stronger (11)
10.9
10.2
11.8
3.5
3.5
3.4
24.6
25.3
23.8
vs Similar (13)
9.8
10.8
8.9
3.2
2.7
3.7
26.0
25.3
26.6
vs Weaker (26)
9.6
10.3
8.9
3.5
3.0
4.1
24.5
23.6
25.5
% over line
50%
60%
40%
38%
28%
48%
76%
76%
76%
% under line
50%
40%
60%
62%
72%
52%
24%
24%
24%
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Celtic
10.9
Dundee
10.8
Rangers
10.7
Heart Of Midlothian
10.6
Ross County
10.5
ST Mirren
10.3
Dundee Utd
10.3
Motherwell
10.2
Hibernian
9.9
Aberdeen
9.7
ST Johnstone
9.5
Livingston
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Motherwell
3.8
Dundee Utd
3.6
ST Johnstone
3.6
Dundee
3.6
Heart Of Midlothian
3.6
Rangers
3.6
Livingston
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Hibernian
3.4
ST Mirren
3.3
Aberdeen
3.3
Celtic
2.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.6
Motherwell
25.8
Heart Of Midlothian
25.8
ST Johnstone
25.7
Dundee
25.1
Livingston
24.9
Hibernian
24.9
Ross County
24.6
ST Mirren
24.5
Dundee Utd
24.4
Rangers
23.6
Celtic
22.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
55.7%
Under 9.5
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
62.4%
Under 3.5
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
75.1%
Under 21.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ST Mirren
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.73
0.20
0.60
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.33
1.50
vs Similar (20)
0.35
0.35
0.09
0.27
0.67
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.60
0.47
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.67
0.25
0.75
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.56
0.50
0.50
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (15)
0.53
0.47
0.86
0.29
0.25
0.62
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ST Mirren
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.77
0.47
0.47
0.67
1.07
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
1.20
0.75
1.00
0.17
1.33
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.55
0.36
0.27
1.00
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.47
0.53
0.73
0.47
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.83
0.00
0.50
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.44
0.25
1.00
0.60
0.00
vs Weaker (15)
0.87
0.40
0.86
0.29
0.88
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5
70.9%
1.65
-
-
-
-
-
+13.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
ST Mirren · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paul Nsio33%
Samuel Ramos33%
Luke Thomas0%
Alexander Gogić0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Jake Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
Eseosa Sule0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ryan Carr100%
Luke Thomas33%
Jake Young33%
Alexander Gogić0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Paul Nsio0%
Eseosa Sule0%
Samuel Ramos0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexander Gogić33%
Samuel Ramos33%
Luke Thomas0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Jake Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
Paul Nsio0%
Eseosa Sule0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Eseosa Sule67%
Luke Thomas0%
Alexander Gogić0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Jake Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
Paul Nsio0%
Samuel Ramos0%
Hibernian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Martin Boyle67%
Callum Wright67%
Felix Passlack25%
Jason Kerr25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Josh Mulligan0%
Jamie McGrath0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Felix Passlack25%
Josh Mulligan25%
Ante Šuto25%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Martin Boyle0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jamie McGrath0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jamie McGrath33%
Felix Passlack25%
Josh Mulligan25%
Nathan Lowe25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Martin Boyle0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Martin Boyle33%
Jamie McGrath33%
Josh Mulligan25%
Nathan Lowe25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Felix Passlack0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
ST Mirren's squad is €12m less valuable than Hibernian's (€8m vs €20m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
ST Mirren's attack is €6m less valuable than Hibernian's (€1m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
ST Mirren's midfield is €5m less valuable than Hibernian's (€3m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
ST Mirren's defence is €2m less valuable than Hibernian's (€3m vs €5m).
Scotland: Premiership 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Rangers
Heart Of Midlothian
Livingston
Dundee Utd
Motherwell
Aberdeen
Ross County
ST Johnstone
Dundee