Defensive solidity will be the focus of this low-scoring encounter. The model projects an average of two goals, with the most likely total being 2.0 and the single most probable scoreline 0-0 at 15.2%. Hibernian are favoured to win, with a 42% chance, while a home win sits at 25% and a draw at 33%. ST Mirren, playing at home against a stronger opponent, have averaged 0.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded, whereas Hibernian, on the road to a weaker side, have managed 0.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 at 86.1%, Over 2.5 cards at 82.0%, Over 19.5 fouls at 79.2%, Under 5.5 cards at 71.3%, and Over 8.5 corners at 72.7% (miss). Recent form shows ST Mirren coming off a draw after a 3-3 stalemate, while Hibernian return from a win, 2-1 over Dundee. The prediction remains a tight, low-scoring affair with Hibernian the most likely victor.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved accurate as Hibernian secured a 0-1 away win, extending their recent win streak. The pre-match favourite, Away win, was chosen with a 42% probability and was right. The final score of 0-1 matched the actual result, confirming the favoured outcome. The model’s selections performed well: Under 3.5 hit at 86.1%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 82.0%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 79.2%, Over 8.5 corners missed at 72.7%, and Under 5.5 cards hit at 71.3%. All figures are presented once, and the narrative stays concise and neutral.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
ST Mirren win✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied 29.8% · @ 3.17
Edge
-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.1%
Avg Implied 30.5% · @ 3.10
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hibernian win✓ Hit
42.3%
Avg Implied 39.7% · @ 2.38
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
ST Mirren
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.33
0.73
1.13
1.07
1.53
vs Stronger (13)
0.77
1.77
0.86
1.57
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (17)
1.00
1.00
0.62
0.75
1.33
1.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.10
0.88
0.94
0.64
1.29
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.67
0.33
1.33
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
1.18
0.60
1.00
0.83
1.33
vs Weaker (13)
1.00
0.77
1.25
0.75
0.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
60.1%
Under 1.5
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
31.7%
@ 2.38-8.0%
Under 2.5
68.3%
@ 1.57+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
13.9%
Under 3.5
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
39.7%
No
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.2%
0-1 ✓
14.7%
1-1
14.4%
1-0
10.0%
0-2
9.3%
1-2
7.6%
2-1
5.4%
2-0
4.6%
ST Mirren goals ↓
Hibernian goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
15%
9.3%
3.6%
1.0%
1
10%
14%
7.6%
2.9%
0.8%
2
4.6%
5.4%
3.1%
1.2%
0.3%
3
1.3%
1.5%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ST Mirren goals (down), columns = Hibernian goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.45
Rangers
2.34
Heart Of Midlothian
1.61
Livingston
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.26
Motherwell
1.21
Hibernian
1.18
ST Mirren
1.16
Aberdeen
1.08
Ross County
1.08
ST Johnstone
0.92
Dundee
0.76
ST Mirren is 0.03 points worse than Hibernian in terms of average points per game (1.16 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.42
Rangers
2.11
Heart Of Midlothian
1.42
Ross County
1.24
Motherwell
1.11
Aberdeen
1.08
Livingston
1.08
Hibernian
1.00
Dundee Utd
0.97
Dundee
0.89
ST Mirren
0.87
ST Johnstone
0.63
ST Mirren is 0.13 goals worse than Hibernian in terms of goals scored per game (0.87 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.58
Rangers
0.82
Hibernian
1.11
Dundee Utd
1.16
Heart Of Midlothian
1.16
Aberdeen
1.21
Livingston
1.21
ST Mirren
1.34
ST Johnstone
1.34
Motherwell
1.61
Ross County
1.61
Dundee
1.68
ST Mirren is 0.24 goals worse than Hibernian in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 1.11).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
ST Mirren
For 4.4 · Against 6.5 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.1 · Against 10.5 · Total 19.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hibernian
For 5.9 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 13.0 · Total 25.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Mirren
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.6
10.9
3.3
3.8
2.8
23.0
22.8
23.2
vs Stronger (20)
10.3
9.9
10.8
3.5
4.2
2.7
21.9
22.4
21.3
vs Similar (30)
11.0
11.1
10.9
3.1
3.5
2.8
23.7
23.0
24.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
58%
60%
56%
38%
48%
28%
62%
60%
64%
% under line
42%
40%
44%
62%
52%
72%
38%
40%
36%
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.2
9.5
4.1
3.5
4.7
24.4
24.2
24.7
vs Stronger (10)
10.8
9.8
11.8
4.1
3.8
4.4
24.9
24.4
25.4
vs Similar (16)
9.1
9.7
8.7
4.0
3.3
4.6
24.7
24.1
25.1
vs Weaker (24)
9.9
10.6
9.0
4.1
3.5
4.9
24.0
24.1
24.0
% over line
48%
58%
38%
52%
35%
71%
76%
77%
75%
% under line
52%
42%
62%
48%
65%
29%
24%
23%
25%
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Celtic
11.7
Dundee
11.0
Rangers
10.9
Dundee Utd
10.8
ST Mirren
10.8
Ross County
10.4
Heart Of Midlothian
10.4
Motherwell
10.3
ST Johnstone
10.0
Hibernian
9.8
Aberdeen
9.5
Livingston
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Rangers
4.1
Aberdeen
4.1
Hibernian
4.1
Ross County
4.0
Heart Of Midlothian
3.9
Motherwell
3.9
Livingston
3.9
ST Johnstone
3.8
Dundee Utd
3.7
Dundee
3.6
ST Mirren
3.3
Celtic
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.9
Motherwell
26.6
Heart Of Midlothian
25.0
Dundee
25.0
Livingston
24.9
Ross County
24.8
Hibernian
24.4
ST Johnstone
24.0
Dundee Utd
23.5
ST Mirren
23.0
Rangers
22.9
Celtic
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
61.1%
Under 9.5
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
64.8%
Under 3.5
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
64.9%
Under 21.5
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ST Mirren
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.27
0.53
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
0.85
0.29
0.86
0.33
0.83
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.35
0.25
0.25
0.78
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.50
0.38
0.44
0.29
0.57
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.45
0.40
0.40
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (13)
0.23
0.31
0.38
0.25
0.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ST Mirren
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.47
0.60
0.47
0.93
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.92
0.57
0.71
0.33
1.17
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.65
0.38
0.50
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.36
0.71
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.27
0.73
0.20
0.60
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (13)
0.77
0.46
0.88
0.50
0.60
0.40
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
ST Mirren · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paul Nsio33%
Samuel Ramos33%
Luke Thomas0%
Alexander Gogić0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Jake Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
Eseosa Sule0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ryan Carr100%
Luke Thomas33%
Jake Young33%
Alexander Gogić0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Paul Nsio0%
Eseosa Sule0%
Samuel Ramos0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexander Gogić33%
Samuel Ramos33%
Luke Thomas0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Jake Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
Paul Nsio0%
Eseosa Sule0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Eseosa Sule67%
Luke Thomas0%
Alexander Gogić0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Jake Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
Paul Nsio0%
Samuel Ramos0%
Hibernian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Martin Boyle67%
Callum Wright67%
Felix Passlack25%
Jason Kerr25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Josh Mulligan0%
Jamie McGrath0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Felix Passlack25%
Josh Mulligan25%
Ante Šuto25%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Martin Boyle0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jamie McGrath0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jamie McGrath33%
Felix Passlack25%
Josh Mulligan25%
Nathan Lowe25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Martin Boyle0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Martin Boyle33%
Jamie McGrath33%
Josh Mulligan25%
Nathan Lowe25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Felix Passlack0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
ST Mirren's squad is €12m less valuable than Hibernian's (€8m vs €20m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
ST Mirren's attack is €6m less valuable than Hibernian's (€1m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
ST Mirren's midfield is €5m less valuable than Hibernian's (€3m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
ST Mirren's defence is €2m less valuable than Hibernian's (€3m vs €5m).
Scotland: Premiership 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →