ST Mirren vs Kilmarnock Result & Analysis

ST Mirren enter the fixture after a shaky start, their last five games reading LWWLW and a heavy 1-5 loss to Rangers. Kilmarnock, similarly, have struggled with a last-five record of LWLLD and a 0-4 defeat to Dundee Utd. The model therefore leans heavily on the home side, giving ST Mirren a 36% chance of victory, 34% for a draw, and 30% for a Kilmarnock win, with the home win the clear favourite. The expected total of 1.9 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 16.1%. ST Mirren average 0.88 goals scored and 0.75 conceded at home against similar opposition, while Kilmarnock average 0.89 goals scored and 1.11 conceded on the road. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 89.5%, Over 19.5 fouls at 88.0%, Under 3.5 at 87.3%, Under 4.5 cards at 78.1% (miss), Over 21.5 fouls at 77.3%, Under 11.5 corners at 71.5%, and Under 2.5 at 70.0% with a 15% edge.

The match saw ST Mirren extend their recent form after a defeat, while Kilmarnock also came off a loss. The final score was 2-0, a home win that matched the model’s pick of a home victory, which the model had assigned a 36% probability to and was indeed correct. The model’s suggested picks were largely accurate: Under 5.5 cards hit at 89.5%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 88.0%, Under 3.5 hit at 87.3%, Under 4.5 cards missed at 78.1%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 77.3%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 71.5%, and Under 2.5 hit at 70.0% with a 15% edge. The most likely score of 1-1 at 14.8% did not materialise, but the 2-0 result was within the model’s expected range.