ST Mirren vs Motherwell Result & Analysis

ST Mirren’s recent form, a string of two wins and a loss, has them still vulnerable after a 1-5 defeat to Rangers, while Motherwell, having lost two in a row, will look to rebound from a 1-4 loss to SC Freiburg. The model’s most divergent view is the 35% chance of a draw, which exceeds the 34% home-win and 31% away-win odds and is the pick the model favours. The expected total of 1.8 goals points to a low-scoring affair, with the most probable scoreline 0-0 at 17.8%. ST Mirren average 0.38 goals scored and 0.5 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Motherwell average 1.0 scored and 1.91 conceded on the road to comparable teams. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 goals at 89%, Over 19.5 fouls at 88.7%, Over 21.5 fouls at 78.4%, Under 5.5 cards at 74.2%, and Under 2.5 at 72.9% with a 14% edge. The model also lists Over 2.5 cards at 79.9% and Over 8.5 corners at 76.6%. The probabilities for the match result are 34% home win, 35% draw, and 31% away win.

The match saw ST Mirren and Motherwell settle for a 1-1 draw, the result the model had predicted. The pre-match favourite was a Draw, with a 35% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The model’s selections largely held up: Under 3.5 goals hit at 89%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 88.7%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 78.4%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 74.2%, and Under 2.5 hit at 72.9%. The only misses were Over 2.5 cards at 79.9% and Over 8.5 corners at 76.6%. The final score matched the expected 1-1 draw, confirming the model’s accuracy.