ST Mirren’s defensive record at home is fragile, conceding 1.7 goals on average while scoring only 0.7, and they are coming off a 1-5 loss to Rangers. Motherwell, on the other hand, averages 1.27 goals scored and 0.82 conceded away, and they have just endured a 1-3 defeat to SC Freiburg. The model projects a tight, low-scoring affair with an expected 2.2 goals, most likely 2 total. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.3% chance. The model’s pick is an away win, with probabilities of 26% for a home victory, 31% for a draw, and 43% for an away triumph. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.2% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.8% with a 6% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (98.4% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (98.0% with a 7% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.8% with a 5% edge), Under 5.5 (97.3% with a 6% edge), and Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.0% with a 5% edge).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, an away win for Motherwell at 44 percent, failed to materialise as the match finished 3-3, a draw that extends both sides’ recent run of a single win. The model’s call was wrong. The Under 7.5 total, at 99.8 percent, hit, as did Under 6.5 at 99.2 percent, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.5 percent, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.7 percent, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.6 percent and Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.2 percent. The Home under 2.5 HT goals pick at 98.8 percent missed, as did Under 5.5 at 97.3 percent. The match delivered a high-scoring draw that surprised the model’s expectations.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
ST Mirren win✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied 36.3% · @ 2.58
Edge
-11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.70
Pinnacle
2.69
Betano
2.67
Dafabet
2.65
Superbet
2.62
Draw✓ Hit
30.7%
Avg Implied 28.8% · @ 3.25
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.40
Dafabet
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
10Bet
3.40
Pinnacle
3.29
Motherwell win✗ Miss
44.3%
Avg Implied 34.9% · @ 2.69
Edge
+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.80
Pinnacle
2.79
Superbet
2.77
Dafabet
2.75
Betano
2.72
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
ST Mirren
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.33
0.92
1.31
1.53
1.35
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
1.38
1.00
0.33
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.24
1.38
0.90
1.60
1.55
1.18
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.07
1.53
0.73
1.27
1.40
vs Stronger (8)
1.38
2.12
1.50
1.75
1.25
2.50
vs Similar (21)
1.48
0.71
1.55
0.36
1.40
1.10
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.7%
@ 1.29-6.3%
Under 1.5
33.3%
@ 3.48+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.72
Superbet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Betano
3.45
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
38.7%
@ 1.93-10.4%
Under 2.5
61.3%
@ 1.86+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.97
Superbet
1.97
SBO
1.96
Unibet
1.96
Betano
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.92
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.90
SBO
1.88
Betfair
1.87
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
18.8%
@ 3.31-9.6%
Under 3.5
81.2%
@ 1.31+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Betfair
3.40
Superbet
3.40
Pinnacle
3.35
Under
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.3%
@ 1.69-9.7%
No
54.7%
@ 2.07+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.75
Superbet
1.73
William Hil
1.73
Unibet
1.70
Bet365
1.70
No
Betfair
2.30
Betano
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Bet365
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%@ 5.80+6.5%
0-1
12.7%@ 8.37+7.4%
0-0
12.0%@ 9.73+7.4%
0-2
9.2%@ 12.78+5.7%
1-0
8.6%@ 8.21+3.1%
1-2
8.5%@ 9.12+3.6%
2-1
6.0%@ 9.00+1.0%
2-0
4.6%@ 12.45+1.0%
ST Mirren goals ↓
Motherwell goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
13%
9.2%
4.0%
1.3%
1
8.6%
14%
8.5%
3.7%
1.2%
2
4.6%
6.0%
3.9%
1.7%
0.6%
3
1.4%
1.8%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ST Mirren goals (down), columns = Motherwell goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.16
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Rangers
1.89
Motherwell
1.61
Hibernian
1.50
Falkirk
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.18
Dundee
1.11
Kilmarnock
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.05
ST Mirren
0.95
ST Mirren is 0.66 points worse than Motherwell in terms of average points per game (0.95 vs 1.61).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.00
Celtic
1.92
Heart Of Midlothian
1.76
Motherwell
1.55
Hibernian
1.53
Kilmarnock
1.32
Falkirk
1.32
Dundee Utd
1.29
Dundee
1.11
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.00
ST Mirren
0.80
ST Mirren is 0.75 goals worse than Motherwell in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 1.55).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Motherwell
0.95
Celtic
1.08
Rangers
1.13
Hibernian
1.16
ST Mirren
1.40
Aberdeen
1.45
ST Johnstone
1.56
Dundee Utd
1.58
Dundee
1.61
Falkirk
1.63
Kilmarnock
1.79
ST Mirren is 0.45 goals worse than Motherwell in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 0.95).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
66%
Rangers
58%
Motherwell
58%
Heart Of Midlothian
53%
Falkirk
51%
Aberdeen
48%
Hibernian
47%
ST Mirren
46%
Dundee
44%
Kilmarnock
42%
Dundee Utd
42%
ST Mirren is 11.6 percentage points worse than Motherwell in terms of average possession (46% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
ST Mirren
For 6.1 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 10.2 · Total 21.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Motherwell
For 2.8 · Against 5.4 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 12.5 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Mirren
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
10.4
11.4
2.9
3.3
2.6
22.3
20.1
24.7
vs Stronger (16)
10.4
10.1
10.7
3.0
3.9
2.1
22.9
21.9
24.0
vs Similar (33)
11.2
10.6
11.8
2.9
2.9
2.9
22.0
18.8
25.2
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
69%
70%
68%
34%
52%
19%
59%
45%
74%
% under line
31%
30%
32%
66%
48%
81%
41%
55%
26%
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.1
7.6
8.6
4.6
4.4
4.8
26.1
26.5
25.7
vs Stronger (10)
8.2
8.6
7.8
4.5
5.4
3.6
24.9
26.6
23.2
vs Similar (39)
8.1
7.4
8.8
4.7
4.1
5.3
26.5
26.5
26.4
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
36%
23%
48%
68%
67%
69%
78%
77%
78%
% under line
64%
77%
52%
32%
33%
31%
22%
23%
22%
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
ST Mirren
11.2
Celtic
10.8
Dundee Utd
10.5
Hibernian
10.5
Heart Of Midlothian
10.3
ST Johnstone
10.1
Rangers
10.1
Aberdeen
10.1
Dundee
9.9
Falkirk
9.6
Kilmarnock
9.4
Motherwell
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aberdeen
4.8
Hibernian
4.8
Motherwell
4.7
Heart Of Midlothian
4.6
Kilmarnock
4.2
Rangers
4.2
Falkirk
4.2
Dundee Utd
4.1
ST Johnstone
4.0
Celtic
3.9
Dundee
3.7
ST Mirren
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rangers
26.3
Motherwell
25.8
Aberdeen
25.5
Falkirk
25.2
Kilmarnock
24.3
Heart Of Midlothian
24.3
Hibernian
23.2
Dundee Utd
22.0
ST Johnstone
22.0
ST Mirren
21.9
Dundee
21.6
Celtic
21.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
51.1%
@ 2.05+6.0%
Under 9.5
48.9%
@ 1.69-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.16
Betano
2.12
Pinnacle
2.08
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.02
Under
Superbet
1.76
Bet365
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
Marathonbet
1.69
Betano
1.67
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
68.5%
@ 1.62+11.3%
Under 3.5
31.5%
@ 2.16-11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.67
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Unibet
1.52
Under
Unibet
2.25
1xBet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.15
Superbet
2.00
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
61.1%
Under 21.5
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ST Mirren or Draw✓ Hit
55.7%
Avg Implied 64.9% · @ 1.44
Edge
-9.2%
25%
31%
44%
covers ST Mirren + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
William Hil
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
ST Mirren or Motherwell✗ Miss
69.3%
Avg Implied 71.1% · @ 1.31
Edge
-1.8%
25%
31%
44%
covers ST Mirren + Motherwell
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.35
William Hil
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Draw or Motherwell✓ Hit
75.0%
Avg Implied 64.0% · @ 1.46
Edge
+11.1%
25%
31%
44%
covers Draw + Motherwell
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.49
1xBet
1.46
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
60.3%
@ 1.28-12.5%
Under
39.7%
@ 3.42+12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.68
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
ST Mirren over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
23.6%
@ 2.41-15.3%
Under
76.4%
@ 1.53+15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.50
Pinnacle
2.50
Marathonbet
2.41
1xBet
2.41
Superbet
2.40
Under
Pinnacle
1.57
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.53
ST Mirren over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
6.7%
@ 5.52-10.2%
Under
93.3%
@ 1.12+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.60
1xBet
5.60
Unibet
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
10Bet
1.11
ST Mirren over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 13.88-5.4%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.03+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
17.00
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Motherwell over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.1%
@ 1.29+0.9%
Under
26.9%
@ 3.35-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Unibet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.57
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
Motherwell over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
37.8%
@ 2.47-0.2%
Under
62.2%
@ 1.51+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.57
Unibet
2.55
Betfair
2.50
Superbet
2.50
1xBet
2.46
Under
Pinnacle
1.54
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.53
1xBet
1.51
Motherwell over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
14.6%
@ 5.77-1.5%
Under
85.4%
@ 1.11+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.90
1xBet
5.90
Superbet
5.80
Under
Betfair
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
Motherwell over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.4%
@ 14.81-2.0%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.02+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
17.00
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to ST Mirren, so a minus line means ST Mirren give that many goals of a start and Motherwell receive them. At -1, ST Mirren must win by two or more to land; a one-goal ST Mirren win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (ST Mirren)Actual: Motherwell
ST Mirren -2
2.4%
@ 11.35-5.5%
Draw -2
6.7%
@ 6.84-6.3%
Motherwell +2
90.9%
@ 1.12+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
13.00
10Bet
11.00
Unibet
11.00
Superbet
11.00
Draw
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
7.50
Superbet
6.80
Unibet
6.75
10Bet
6.50
Away
10Bet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
Handicap -1 (ST Mirren)Actual: Motherwell
ST Mirren -1
9.1%
@ 5.33-7.9%
Draw -1
15.9%
@ 4.16-5.9%
Motherwell +1
75.0%
@ 1.48+13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.20
10Bet
5.00
Unibet
4.90
Draw
Marathonbet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Superbet
4.15
10Bet
4.00
Away
Unibet
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.46
Handicap +1 (ST Mirren)Actual: ST Mirren
ST Mirren +1
55.7%
@ 1.43-7.3%
Draw +1
23.1%
@ 4.31+2.3%
Motherwell -1
21.2%
@ 5.57+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Superbet
1.43
Unibet
1.42
Draw
Marathonbet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.35
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Away
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
10Bet
5.25
Handicap +2 (ST Mirren)Actual: ST Mirren
ST Mirren +2
78.8%
@ 1.12-2.3%
Draw +2
13.5%
@ 7.74+1.8%
Motherwell -2
7.6%
@ 12.60+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Betfair
1.08
Draw
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Superbet
7.20
10Bet
7.00
Away
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
13.00
10Bet
12.00
Unibet
12.00
Superbet
11.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ST Mirren
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.23
0.54
0.76
0.71
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.88
0.33
0.33
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.57
0.20
0.60
0.82
0.55
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.40
0.67
0.27
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
0.62
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.24
0.64
0.27
0.60
0.20
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.3%
@ 1.38+0.8%
Under 0.5
31.7%
@ 2.87-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.41
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
BetVictor
1.39
Under
Pinnacle
3.07
William Hil
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
10Bet
2.90
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
31.3%
@ 2.79-2.0%
Under 1.5
68.7%
@ 1.40+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.90
Pinnacle
2.89
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.85
Superbet
2.82
Under
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
BetVictor
1.41
Superbet
1.41
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
10.4%
@ 7.08-2.7%
Under 2.5
89.6%
@ 1.07+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
7.20
1xBet
7.20
Superbet
7.10
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
William Hil
1.08
10Bet
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
40.9%
@ 2.07-4.0%
Under
59.1%
@ 1.69+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.11
Betano
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
Unibet
2.08
1xBet
2.08
Under
10Bet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
Superbet
1.68
Unibet
1.68
Betano
1.67
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
8.5%
@ 6.59-5.5%
Under
91.5%
@ 1.08+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.20
1xBet
7.20
Unibet
6.50
Superbet
6.30
10Bet
6.25
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
1xBet
1.05
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
1.2%
@ 16.50-4.6%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.02+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Motherwell over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
45.6%
@ 2.12+1.8%
Under
54.4%
@ 1.65-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.17
Unibet
2.16
Betano
2.15
Superbet
2.12
1xBet
2.11
Under
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.64
1xBet
1.63
Motherwell over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
12.4%
@ 6.89-1.0%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.07+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.50
Unibet
6.75
Superbet
6.70
10Bet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
Motherwell over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 17.75-2.9%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.01+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ST Mirren
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.70
0.69
0.77
0.76
0.65
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.50
0.67
0.00
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.81
0.70
1.00
0.73
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.73
0.87
0.33
0.60
1.13
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.50
0.75
1.00
0.25
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.48
0.91
0.09
0.80
0.90
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.8%
@ 1.23-1.9%
Under 0.5
26.2%
@ 3.83+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Under
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.90
Marathonbet
3.90
1xBet
3.90
Superbet
3.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
39.3%
@ 2.10-5.2%
Under 1.5
60.7%
@ 1.68+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.17
10Bet
2.15
Unibet
2.12
William Hil
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Under
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Superbet
1.67
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.4%
@ 4.51-6.2%
Under 2.5
85.6%
@ 1.17+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.70
William Hil
4.60
Unibet
4.60
1xBet
4.45
Under
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Unibet
1.16
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
44.2%
@ 1.75-8.8%
Under
55.8%
@ 1.97+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Under
Betano
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
1xBet
1.97
Superbet
1.95
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.3%
@ 4.77-7.0%
Under
87.7%
@ 1.15+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.00
1xBet
4.85
Marathonbet
4.85
Superbet
4.75
Betano
4.40
Under
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 12.50-5.2%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Motherwell over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
48.2%
@ 1.75-4.6%
Under
51.8%
@ 1.96+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Betano
1.72
Under
Betano
2.05
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.94
Superbet
1.90
Motherwell over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.8%
@ 4.89-1.0%
Under
82.2%
@ 1.14+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.05
1xBet
5.05
10Bet
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Betano
4.45
Under
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Motherwell over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.8%
@ 12.62-3.7%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.02+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.6%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
98.5%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.3%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
+4.9%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
93.3%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
10Bet
1.11
+10.2%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
92.4%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Pinnacle
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
+6.9%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.5%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
1xBet
1.05
+5.5%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
90.9%
1.12
10Bet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
+11.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.6%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
William Hil
1.08
10Bet
1.08
+2.7%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
87.7%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.6%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
+1.0%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.6%
1.17
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Unibet
1.16
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
85.4%
1.11
Betfair
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
+1.5%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
84.4%
1.26
Superbet
1.26
-
-
-
-
+13.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.2%
1.14
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
81.2%
1.31
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.33
10Bet
1.30
+9.6%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
78.8%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Betfair
1.08
-2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
76.4%
1.53
Pinnacle
1.57
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.53
+15.3%
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
75.0%
1.46
Unibet
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.49
1xBet
1.46
+11.1%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
75.0%
1.48
Unibet
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.46
+13.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
73.8%
1.23
Superbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.23
-1.9%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
73.1%
1.29
Superbet
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Unibet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.4%
1.23
Superbet
1.31
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Unibet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
-1.8%
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
ST Mirren
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
D. John33%
Samuel Ramos33%
P. Nsio25%
Luke Thomas0%
Alexander Gogić0%
C. Mochrie0%
J. Richardson0%
J. Chapman0%
J. Young0%
Henry Fieldson0%
Ryan Carr0%
Eseosa Sule0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ryan Carr75%
Henry Fieldson33%
Luke Thomas25%
J. Richardson25%
J. Young25%
D. John0%
Alexander Gogić0%
C. Mochrie0%
J. Chapman0%
P. Nsio0%
Eseosa Sule0%
Samuel Ramos0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Henry Fieldson33%
Samuel Ramos33%
Alexander Gogić25%
D. John0%
Luke Thomas0%
C. Mochrie0%
J. Richardson0%
J. Chapman0%
J. Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
P. Nsio0%
Eseosa Sule0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Eseosa Sule50%
D. John0%
Luke Thomas0%
Alexander Gogić0%
C. Mochrie0%
J. Richardson0%
J. Chapman0%
J. Young0%
Henry Fieldson0%
Ryan Carr0%
P. Nsio0%
Samuel Ramos0%
Motherwell
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Regan Charles-Cook40%
S. Palmer-Houlden25%
I. Said20%
Lukas Fadinger17%
A. Lowry17%
M. Emmanuel17%
Tawanda Maswanhise17%
Stephen O'Donnell0%
A. Paulsen0%
M. Moormann0%
Joe Hodge0%
J. Girdwood-Reich0%
T. Sparrow0%
Dylan Williams0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lukas Fadinger50%
M. Moormann40%
Stephen O'Donnell33%
Joe Hodge25%
S. Palmer-Houlden25%
T. Sparrow20%
A. Lowry17%
Jamie Knight-Lebel17%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
A. Paulsen0%
M. Emmanuel0%
I. Said0%
J. Girdwood-Reich0%
Tawanda Maswanhise0%
Dylan Williams0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dylan Williams33%
I. Said20%
T. Sparrow20%
A. Lowry17%
M. Emmanuel17%
Tawanda Maswanhise17%
Lukas Fadinger0%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Stephen O'Donnell0%
A. Paulsen0%
M. Moormann0%
Joe Hodge0%
J. Girdwood-Reich0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
S. Palmer-Houlden0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tawanda Maswanhise50%
A. Lowry33%
M. Emmanuel33%
S. Palmer-Houlden25%
Lukas Fadinger17%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Stephen O'Donnell0%
A. Paulsen0%
M. Moormann0%
Joe Hodge0%
I. Said0%
J. Girdwood-Reich0%
T. Sparrow0%
Dylan Williams0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
ST Mirren's squad is €8m less valuable than Motherwell's (€8m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
ST Mirren's attack is €8m less valuable than Motherwell's (€1m vs €10m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
ST Mirren's midfield is €2m more valuable than Motherwell's (€3m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
ST Mirren's defence is €2m less valuable than Motherwell's (€3m vs €5m).
Scotland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Celtic
Heart Of Midlothian
Dundee
Rangers
Hibernian
ST Johnstone
Dundee Utd
Aberdeen
Falkirk
Kilmarnock