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ST Mirren vs Partick Result & Analysis

Date: 25/05/2026
Time: 19:00
Final 1-0
ST Mirren
ST Mirren
Vs
36%
32%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Partick
Partick
Scotland: Premiership
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Odd / Even7 Home & Away Over/Under8 Handicap9 Top picks for this game10 Squad value11 Games History12 Overall Statistics13 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives ST Mirren a 36% win probability against Partick in the Scotland: Premiership on 2026-05-25, with 32% for the draw and 32% for Partick. The model estimates around 2.2 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (14.8%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (82%).

Results analysis

ST Mirren finished 1-0 against Partick (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 36% home win, 32% draw and 32% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (82%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

ST Mirren win✓ Hit
35.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Partick win✗ Miss
32.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ST MirrenST Mirren

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L21W20W01L02L01L03L20W11D11DH·RAN15/03A·FAL21/03H·ABE04/04A·CEL11/04H·LIV25/04A·DUN02/05H·KIL09/05A·ABE12/05H·DUN17/05A·PAR21/05
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.530.601.331.071.73
vs Stronger (17)1.001.350.891.111.121.62
vs Similar (13)0.621.770.171.671.001.86
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PartickPartick

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D11D20W22D00D11D11D11D21W11DA·AYR04/04A·AYR04/04H·DUN11/04A·AIR18/04A·ARB25/04H·QUE01/05H·QUE01/05A·DUN12/05H·DUN15/05H·ST 21/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.270.901.290.641.251.12
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)1.250.861.150.621.331.07
vs Weaker (2)1.501.503.001.000.002.00
Clean sheet %37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%022%128%220%311%45%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
65.5%
Under 1.5
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
37.3%
Under 2.5
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.8%
Under 3.5
82.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.5%
No
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
12.6%
1-0 ✓
11.3%
0-1
10.6%
2-1
7.6%
2-0
7.2%
1-2
7.1%
0-2
6.3%
ST Mirren goals ↓
Partick goals →
01234
013%11%6.3%2.2%0.6%
111%15%7.1%2.5%0.7%
27.2%7.6%4.0%1.4%0.4%
32.7%2.8%1.5%0.5%0.1%
40.8%0.8%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ST Mirren goals (down), columns = Partick goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Celtic
2.16
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Rangers
1.89
Motherwell
1.61
Hibernian
1.50
Falkirk
1.29
Partick
1.25
Dunfermline
1.25
Dundee Utd
1.18
Dundee
1.11
Kilmarnock
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Mirren
0.95
Livingston
0.55
Arbroath
0.50
ST Mirren is 0.30 points worse than Partick in terms of average points per game (0.95 vs 1.25).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.00
Celtic
1.92
Heart Of Midlothian
1.76
Motherwell
1.55
Hibernian
1.53
Kilmarnock
1.32
Falkirk
1.32
Dundee Utd
1.29
Dundee
1.11
Livingston
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
Partick
1.00
ST Mirren
0.80
Dunfermline
0.75
Arbroath
0.00
ST Mirren is 0.20 goals worse than Partick in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Arbroath
0.50
Dunfermline
0.75
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Motherwell
0.95
Partick
1.00
Celtic
1.08
Rangers
1.13
Hibernian
1.16
ST Mirren
1.40
Aberdeen
1.45
Dundee Utd
1.58
Dundee
1.61
Falkirk
1.63
Kilmarnock
1.79
Livingston
1.97
ST Mirren is 0.40 goals worse than Partick in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Celtic
66%
Rangers
58%
Motherwell
58%
Heart Of Midlothian
53%
Falkirk
51%
Arbroath
50%
Dunfermline
50%
Aberdeen
48%
Hibernian
47%
ST Mirren
46%
Livingston
45%
Dundee
44%
Kilmarnock
42%
Dundee Utd
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

ST MirrenST Mirren

For 5.0 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.8

🚩 Corners

1501021614658773854711148127511151013111212H·DUNA·ABEH·KILA·DUNH·LIVA·CELH·ABEA·FALH·RANA·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.8

🟨 Cards

40112213121222132112234342431A·PARH·DUNA·ABEH·KILA·DUNH·LIVA·CELH·ABEA·FALH·RAN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 11.9 · Total 23.2

⚠️ Fouls

290101011141111129131014128151415711131220252221232623291825H·DUNA·ABEH·KILA·DUNH·LIVA·CELH·ABEA·FALH·RANA·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

PartickPartick

For 5.9 · Against 5.1 · Total 11.0

🚩 Corners

1608765479425488151111137416H·QUEA·AYRA·RAIH·AYRA·QUEH·RAIA·AYR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.0

🟨 Cards

90111434231362121763193H·ST H·QUEA·AYRA·RAIH·AYRA·QUEH·RAIA·AYR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.4 · Against 9.0 · Total 18.4

⚠️ Fouls

25010610101411107639157111620251792418H·QUEA·AYRA·RAIH·AYRA·QUEH·RAIA·AYR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ST MirrenST Mirren

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)11.010.611.53.43.63.221.821.222.3
vs Stronger (30)10.810.111.53.34.02.721.321.321.2
vs Similar (19)11.311.111.43.63.23.922.821.424.2
vs Weaker (1)13.013.0-2.02.0-17.017.0-
% over line71%72%71%38%56%20%55%52%58%
% under line29%28%29%62%44%80%45%48%42%
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PartickPartick

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.710.311.01.11.21.020.219.820.7
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (46)10.710.311.01.21.31.120.219.820.7
vs Weaker (4)---0.00.00.0---
% over line67%50%83%14%15%12%33%33%33%
% under line33%50%17%86%85%88%67%67%67%
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Celtic
11.0
ST Mirren
11.0
Hibernian
10.7
Dundee Utd
10.5
Rangers
10.5
Partick
10.3
Aberdeen
10.2
Livingston
10.1
Heart Of Midlothian
10.0
Falkirk
9.9
Dundee
9.9
Arbroath
9.8
Kilmarnock
9.6
Dunfermline
9.1
Motherwell
8.6

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Aberdeen
4.8
Hibernian
4.6
Motherwell
4.6
Livingston
4.3
Heart Of Midlothian
4.3
Kilmarnock
4.2
Partick
4.2
Falkirk
4.1
Rangers
4.1
Dunfermline
4.0
Dundee Utd
4.0
Celtic
3.8
Arbroath
3.7
Dundee
3.6
ST Mirren
3.4

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Motherwell
25.8
Rangers
25.7
Aberdeen
25.3
Livingston
25.1
Kilmarnock
24.4
Falkirk
24.3
Heart Of Midlothian
23.4
Hibernian
22.5
Dundee
22.2
Dundee Utd
22.0
Celtic
21.9
ST Mirren
21.8
Dunfermline
21.4
Arbroath
20.8
Partick
20.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
60.4%
Under 9.5
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
58.2%
Under 3.5
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
56.2%
Under 21.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.582.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (34)
€154m
RAN (25)
€127m
HOM (33)
€33m
HIB (31)
€30m
ABE (35)
€24m
MOT (28)
€21m
KIL (33)
€13m
DUN (30)
€12m
SM (26)
€8m
FAL (26)
€7m
LIV (29)
€6m
DUN (31)
€6m
PAR (22)
€3m
ARB (25)
€1m
ST Mirren's squad is €4m more valuable than Partick's (€8m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (9)
€59m
CEL (12)
€55m
HOM (12)
€19m
HIB (10)
€14m
MOT (10)
€12m
ABE (11)
€10m
KIL (12)
€5m
DUN (10)
€3m
SM (9)
€3m
DUN (11)
€2m
FAL (10)
€2m
LIV (12)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
ARB (5)
€0m
ST Mirren's attack is €2m more valuable than Partick's (€3m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (6)
€38m
RAN (6)
€28m
HIB (8)
€10m
HOM (8)
€9m
ABE (10)
€5m
DUN (8)
€5m
MOT (8)
€4m
SM (7)
€3m
KIL (6)
€3m
LIV (8)
€3m
FAL (5)
€2m
PAR (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
ARB (8)
€1m
ST Mirren's midfield is €2m more valuable than Partick's (€3m vs €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (16)
€60m
RAN (10)
€40m
ABE (14)
€8m
HIB (13)
€6m
MOT (10)
€6m
HOM (13)
€5m
KIL (15)
€5m
DUN (11)
€5m
FAL (11)
€3m
SM (10)
€2m
DUN (14)
€2m
LIV (9)
€2m
PAR (9)
€1m
ARB (12)
€1m
ST Mirren and Partick have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

ST Mirren vs Partick · H/A from SM
DateH/AGameScore
21/05/26APartick Vs SM1-1

ST MirrenST Mirren

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/05/26APartick Vs SM1-1
17/05/26HSM Vs Dundee Utd1-1
12/05/26AAberdeen Vs SM0-2
09/05/26HSM Vs Kilmarnock0-3
02/05/26ADundee Vs SM1-0
25/04/26HSM Vs Livingston0-2
11/04/26ACeltic Vs SM1-0
04/04/26HSM Vs Aberdeen2-0
21/03/26AFalkirk Vs SM1-2
15/03/26HSM Vs Rangers0-1

PartickPartick

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/05/26HPAR Vs ST Mirren1-1
15/05/26HPAR Vs Dunfermline2-1
12/05/26ADunfermline Vs PAR1-1
01/05/26HPAR Vs Queen's Park1-1
01/05/26HPAR Vs Queens Park1-1
25/04/26AArbroath Vs PAR0-0
18/04/26AAirdrie United Vs PAR2-2
11/04/26HPAR Vs Dunfermline2-0
04/04/26AAyr Vs PAR1-1
04/04/26AAyr Utd Vs PAR1-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

ST Mirren
ST Mirren
Scotland: Premiership
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDD1.02
HomeLWLLD1.28
AwayWLLWD0.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%32%16%
AVG goals2.562.402.72
Over 1.5 %74%60%88%
Over 2.5 %38%36%40%
Over 3.5 %26%28%24%
Scored1.041.041.04
Conceded1.521.361.68
BTTS46%32%60%
Clean Sheet22%36%8%
Corners11.0010.5611.46
Cards3.403.643.16
Partick
Partick
Scotland: Premiership
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDWD1.88
HomeWDDWD2.31
AwayDDDDD1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%65%29%
AVG goals2.382.502.25
Over 1.5 %76%73%79%
Over 2.5 %42%50%33%
Over 3.5 %24%23%25%
Scored1.501.771.21
Conceded0.880.731.04
BTTS58%62%54%
Clean Sheet36%38%33%
Corners10.6710.3311.00
Cards4.384.574.17

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1CelticCeltic3882
68%
2.2
7341+32
3.0
82%
68%
42%
10.6
61%
4.1
55%
21.8
37%
154
5538601.91.1
66%
2Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian3880
63%
2.1
6734+33
2.7
71%
53%
29%
10.1
63%
4.7
63%
24.3
61%
33
19951.80.9
53%
3RangersRangers3872
53%
1.9
7643+33
3.1
82%
61%
37%
10.6
63%
4.2
58%
25.5
76%
127
5928402.01.1
58%
4MotherwellMotherwell3861
42%
1.6
5936+23
2.5
76%
39%
29%
8.1
32%
4.9
71%
26.3
79%
21
12461.60.9
58%
5HibernianHibernian3857
39%
1.5
5844+14
2.7
76%
55%
29%
10.6
68%
4.4
61%
23.2
66%
30
141061.51.2
47%
6FalkirkFalkirk3849
37%
1.3
5062-12
2.9
74%
58%
34%
9.6
53%
4.2
63%
25.3
76%
7
2231.31.6
51%
7Dundee UtdDundee Utd3845
26%
1.2
4960-11
2.9
89%
50%
34%
10.0
55%
4.2
61%
22.8
53%
0
0001.31.6
42%
8DundeeDundee3842
29%
1.1
4261-19
2.7
71%
58%
34%
9.5
61%
3.7
51%
22.9
55%
12
2551.11.6
44%
9AberdeenAberdeen3840
29%
1.1
4055-15
2.5
74%
34%
24%
10.0
58%
4.9
69%
26.4
95%
24
10581.11.4
48%
10KilmarnockKilmarnock3840
26%
1.1
5068-18
3.1
84%
66%
42%
9.7
53%
4.5
71%
25.0
74%
13
5351.31.8
42%
11ST MirrenST Mirren4038
22%
0.9
3256-24
2.2
68%
30%
15%
11.1
71%
3.3
38%
22.3
58%
8
3320.81.4
46%
12LivingstonLivingston3821
5%
0.6
4075-35
3.0
84%
63%
39%
10.4
58%
4.2
65%
25.2
71%
6
2321.12.0
45%
13PartickPartick45
25%
1.2
44+0
2.0
75%
25%
0%
-
0%
3.5
50%
-
0%
3
1111.01.0
-
14DunfermlineDunfermline45
25%
1.2
33+0
1.5
50%
25%
0%
9.0
50%
6.0
100%
22.5
100%
6
3120.80.8
50%
15ArbroathArbroath21
0%
0.5
01-1
0.5
0%
0%
0%
9.0
50%
6.0
100%
22.5
100%
1
0110.00.5
50%
Scotland: Premiership 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →

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