ST Mirren enter the game on a shaky run, having drawn their last match and finished their five-game stretch with two defeats. Rangers, on the other hand, come off a win and boast a strong away record against weaker opponents, scoring 1.69 goals per game while conceding only 0.62. The model therefore names an away win as the clear favourite, assigning Rangers a 68% chance of victory, a 23% chance of a draw, and a 9% chance of a home win. The expected total goals hover at 2.4, with the most probable total being two goals (27%). The single most likely scoreline is 0-1, with Rangers winning 1-0, a 16% probability. Home side ST Mirren average 1.0 goal scored and 2.4 conceded against stronger opposition, while Rangers average 1.69 scored and 0.62 conceded at home. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 84.1%, Under 3.5 goals at 78.2%, Over 2.5 cards at 78.1%, Under 5.5 cards at 76.4%, and Over 21.5 fouls at 71.6%.
Results analysis
The updated form storyline shows ST Mirren coming off a draw, while Rangers arrive on a win, setting the stage for a tight encounter. The model’s favourite, an away win, was correct as Rangers secured a 1-2 victory. The pre-match probability for the favoured result was 68%. The model’s selection of a 2-goal total was also right, with the match ending 1-2. Every suggested pick hit: Over 19.5 fouls at 84.1%, Under 3.5 goals at 78.2%, Over 2.5 cards at 78.1%, Under 5.5 cards at 76.4%, and Over 21.5 fouls at 71.6%. The outcome matched the model’s predictions across the board.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
ST Mirren win✗ Miss
9.4%
Avg Implied 12.2% · @ 7.66
Edge
-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.9%
Avg Implied 21.3% · @ 4.40
Edge
+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rangers win✓ Hit
67.7%
Avg Implied 66.5% · @ 1.41
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
ST Mirren
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.40
0.80
1.13
1.53
1.67
vs Stronger (10)
0.90
2.40
1.00
2.40
0.80
2.40
vs Similar (20)
1.30
0.90
0.70
0.50
1.90
1.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
0.53
2.31
0.44
1.64
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.75
0.50
2.00
0.33
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (26)
2.04
0.54
2.38
0.46
1.69
0.62
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.7%
Under 1.5
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.6%
@ 1.89-7.5%
Under 2.5
57.4%
@ 1.90+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.8%
Under 3.5
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
36.3%
No
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
16.0%
0-2
15.6%
1-1
10.2%
0-0
10.1%
0-3
9.5%
1-2 ✓
8.5%
1-3
5.2%
0-4
4.4%
ST Mirren goals ↓
Rangers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
16%
16%
9.5%
4.4%
1
4.1%
10%
8.5%
5.2%
2.4%
2
1.4%
2.5%
2.3%
1.4%
0.7%
3
0.3%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ST Mirren goals (down), columns = Rangers goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.45
Rangers
2.34
Heart Of Midlothian
1.61
Livingston
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.26
Motherwell
1.21
Hibernian
1.18
ST Mirren
1.16
Aberdeen
1.08
Ross County
1.08
ST Johnstone
0.92
Dundee
0.76
ST Mirren is 1.18 points worse than Rangers in terms of average points per game (1.16 vs 2.34).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.42
Rangers
2.11
Heart Of Midlothian
1.42
Ross County
1.24
Motherwell
1.11
Aberdeen
1.08
Livingston
1.08
Hibernian
1.00
Dundee Utd
0.97
Dundee
0.89
ST Mirren
0.87
ST Johnstone
0.63
ST Mirren is 1.24 goals worse than Rangers in terms of goals scored per game (0.87 vs 2.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.58
Rangers
0.82
Hibernian
1.11
Dundee Utd
1.16
Heart Of Midlothian
1.16
Aberdeen
1.21
Livingston
1.21
ST Mirren
1.34
ST Johnstone
1.34
Motherwell
1.61
Ross County
1.61
Dundee
1.68
ST Mirren is 0.53 goals worse than Rangers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 0.82).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
ST Mirren
For 4.7 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 12.5 · Total 24.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rangers
For 8.3 · Against 3.4 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 10.6 · Total 21.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Mirren
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.2
11.2
3.1
3.5
2.8
24.0
25.2
22.9
vs Stronger (18)
9.2
7.9
10.6
3.1
3.8
2.3
24.7
27.6
21.9
vs Similar (32)
10.8
10.0
11.5
3.2
3.4
3.0
23.6
23.8
23.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
54%
44%
64%
38%
52%
24%
68%
80%
56%
% under line
46%
56%
36%
62%
48%
76%
32%
20%
44%
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
11.2
10.3
3.4
3.0
3.7
23.1
22.2
24.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
10.2
10.0
10.5
4.0
4.0
4.0
27.8
26.3
30.0
vs Weaker (45)
10.8
11.3
10.3
3.3
2.9
3.7
22.6
21.6
23.4
% over line
54%
56%
52%
44%
28%
60%
64%
60%
68%
% under line
46%
44%
48%
56%
72%
40%
36%
40%
32%
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rangers
10.7
Ross County
10.7
Celtic
10.6
Motherwell
10.5
Dundee
10.5
Dundee Utd
10.5
Heart Of Midlothian
10.5
ST Mirren
10.2
Hibernian
10.0
ST Johnstone
9.5
Aberdeen
9.3
Livingston
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Heart Of Midlothian
3.7
Motherwell
3.7
Dundee Utd
3.6
ST Johnstone
3.6
Dundee
3.5
Livingston
3.4
Rangers
3.4
Ross County
3.3
Hibernian
3.3
ST Mirren
3.1
Aberdeen
3.1
Celtic
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.8
Heart Of Midlothian
26.0
Hibernian
25.5
ST Johnstone
25.5
Motherwell
25.4
Livingston
25.2
Ross County
25.0
Dundee Utd
24.8
Dundee
24.6
ST Mirren
24.0
Rangers
23.1
Celtic
22.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.0%
Under 9.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
59.2%
Under 3.5
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
71.6%
Under 21.5
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ST Mirren
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.20
0.60
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
1.30
0.20
1.20
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.40
0.20
0.30
0.90
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.20
1.06
0.19
0.71
0.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.50
0.67
0.33
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (26)
0.92
0.15
1.15
0.15
0.69
0.15
Clean sheet %
80% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ST Mirren
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.60
0.53
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.10
0.80
1.20
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.20
1.00
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.33
1.25
0.25
0.93
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.00
1.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (26)
1.12
0.38
1.23
0.31
1.00
0.46
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
ST Mirren · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paul Nsio33%
Samuel Ramos33%
Luke Thomas0%
Alexander Gogić0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Jake Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
Eseosa Sule0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ryan Carr100%
Luke Thomas33%
Jake Young33%
Alexander Gogić0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Paul Nsio0%
Eseosa Sule0%
Samuel Ramos0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexander Gogić33%
Samuel Ramos33%
Luke Thomas0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Jake Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
Paul Nsio0%
Eseosa Sule0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Eseosa Sule67%
Luke Thomas0%
Alexander Gogić0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Jake Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
Paul Nsio0%
Samuel Ramos0%
Rangers · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Thelo Aasgaard33%
Lawrence Shankland20%
Ryan Don Naderi20%
Cameron Devlin0%
Ivor Pandur0%
Dan Neil0%
Dujon Sterling0%
James Penrice0%
Daisuke Yokota0%
Emmanuel Fernandez0%
Djeidi Gassama0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Olwethu Makhanya0%
Findlay Curtis0%
Vanja Dragojević0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dan Neil50%
Dujon Sterling50%
Vanja Dragojević33%
Cameron Devlin25%
Lawrence Shankland20%
Emmanuel Fernandez20%
Findlay Curtis20%
Ivor Pandur0%
James Penrice0%
Daisuke Yokota0%
Thelo Aasgaard0%
Ryan Don Naderi0%
Djeidi Gassama0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Olwethu Makhanya0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daisuke Yokota25%
Cameron Devlin0%
Ivor Pandur0%
Dan Neil0%
Dujon Sterling0%
Lawrence Shankland0%
James Penrice0%
Thelo Aasgaard0%
Ryan Don Naderi0%
Emmanuel Fernandez0%
Djeidi Gassama0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Olwethu Makhanya0%
Findlay Curtis0%
Vanja Dragojević0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thelo Aasgaard33%
Vanja Dragojević33%
Djeidi Gassama20%
Cameron Devlin0%
Ivor Pandur0%
Dan Neil0%
Dujon Sterling0%
Lawrence Shankland0%
James Penrice0%
Daisuke Yokota0%
Ryan Don Naderi0%
Emmanuel Fernandez0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Olwethu Makhanya0%
Findlay Curtis0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
ST Mirren's squad is €129m less valuable than Rangers's (€8m vs €136m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
ST Mirren's attack is €37m less valuable than Rangers's (€1m vs €38m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
ST Mirren's midfield is €41m less valuable than Rangers's (€3m vs €44m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
ST Mirren's defence is €50m less valuable than Rangers's (€3m vs €54m).
Scotland: Premiership 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →