Rangers are the clear favourite, with a 65% chance of victory, 24% for a draw and 11% for a home win. The model’s pick is an away win, driven by Rangers’ strong away form: they average 2.23 goals scored and 0.92 conceded against weaker opposition, while ST Mirren at home have struggled, scoring only 1.0 and conceding 1.17 against stronger teams. The expected total is 2.4 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 15% probability. ST Mirren’s recent draw suggests a cautious start, but Rangers’ recent win over Aberdeen indicates momentum. Suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards at 80.8%, Over 8.5 corners at 77.9%, Under 5.5 cards at 72.9%, and Over 1.5 goals at 70.5%. The model also sees a 77.6% chance of Under 3.5 goals and a 77.9% chance of Over 19.5 fouls, though these are less likely to hit. All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
Results analysis
The final score was 0-4, confirming the Rangers’ away victory. The model had named the away win as the favourite, assigning it a 65% probability, and this call proved correct. The win extends Rangers’ recent run of four wins, while ST Mirren’s form has dipped to a draw, a win, a win, a loss and a loss. The model’s suggested picks varied: Over 2.5 cards (80.8%) missed, Over 8.5 corners (77.9%) hit, Over 19.5 fouls (77.9%) missed, Under 3.5 (77.6%) missed, Under 5.5 cards (72.9%) hit, and Over 1.5 (70.5%) hit. The most likely scoreline was 0-1 with a 15% chance, but Rangers dominated with a 4-goal haul.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
ST Mirren win✗ Miss
11.3%
Avg Implied 9.6% · @ 9.84
Edge
+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.0%
Avg Implied 18.9% · @ 5.00
Edge
+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rangers win✓ Hit
64.7%
Avg Implied 71.5% · @ 1.32
Edge
-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
ST Mirren
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.40
0.79
0.93
1.00
1.81
vs Stronger (13)
0.77
1.92
1.00
1.17
0.57
2.57
vs Similar (17)
1.00
1.00
0.62
0.75
1.33
1.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
0.87
1.94
0.69
2.07
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.67
1.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
vs Weaker (27)
2.15
0.78
2.07
0.64
2.23
0.92
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.5%
Under 1.5
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.4%
@ 1.83-8.3%
Under 2.5
56.6%
@ 1.96+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
22.4%
Under 3.5
77.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
39.5%
No
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
15.0%
0-2
14.4%
1-1
10.9%
0-0
9.9%
1-2
8.9%
0-3
8.6%
1-3
5.3%
1-0
4.5%
ST Mirren goals ↓
Rangers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.9%
15%
14%
8.6%
3.9%
1
4.5%
11%
8.9%
5.3%
2.4%
2
1.7%
3.1%
2.8%
1.7%
0.7%
3
0.4%
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.2%
4
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ST Mirren goals (down), columns = Rangers goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.45
Rangers
2.34
Heart Of Midlothian
1.61
Livingston
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.26
Motherwell
1.21
Hibernian
1.18
ST Mirren
1.16
Aberdeen
1.08
Ross County
1.08
ST Johnstone
0.92
Dundee
0.76
ST Mirren is 1.18 points worse than Rangers in terms of average points per game (1.16 vs 2.34).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.42
Rangers
2.11
Heart Of Midlothian
1.42
Ross County
1.24
Motherwell
1.11
Aberdeen
1.08
Livingston
1.08
Hibernian
1.00
Dundee Utd
0.97
Dundee
0.89
ST Mirren
0.87
ST Johnstone
0.63
ST Mirren is 1.24 goals worse than Rangers in terms of goals scored per game (0.87 vs 2.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.58
Rangers
0.82
Hibernian
1.11
Dundee Utd
1.16
Heart Of Midlothian
1.16
Aberdeen
1.21
Livingston
1.21
ST Mirren
1.34
ST Johnstone
1.34
Motherwell
1.61
Ross County
1.61
Dundee
1.68
ST Mirren is 0.53 goals worse than Rangers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 0.82).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
ST Mirren
For 4.6 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.9 · Against 11.7 · Total 20.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rangers
For 7.1 · Against 4.1 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 13.4 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Mirren
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.7
10.7
3.3
3.9
2.8
23.3
23.2
23.4
vs Stronger (19)
10.4
10.0
10.8
3.6
4.6
2.7
22.4
23.6
21.3
vs Similar (31)
10.9
11.1
10.6
3.1
3.5
2.8
23.9
23.0
24.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
58%
62%
54%
38%
50%
27%
64%
62%
65%
% under line
42%
38%
46%
62%
50%
73%
36%
38%
35%
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
11.0
10.8
4.2
4.0
4.4
23.3
23.0
23.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
10.8
9.5
13.5
4.3
4.2
4.5
25.3
24.8
26.5
vs Weaker (44)
10.9
11.2
10.5
4.2
3.9
4.4
23.0
22.6
23.3
% over line
62%
58%
67%
62%
58%
67%
66%
62%
71%
% under line
38%
42%
33%
38%
42%
33%
34%
38%
29%
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Celtic
11.7
Dundee
11.0
Rangers
10.9
Dundee Utd
10.8
ST Mirren
10.7
Ross County
10.4
Heart Of Midlothian
10.4
Motherwell
10.3
ST Johnstone
10.0
Hibernian
9.8
Aberdeen
9.5
Livingston
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Rangers
4.2
Aberdeen
4.1
Hibernian
4.1
Ross County
4.0
Heart Of Midlothian
3.9
Motherwell
3.9
Livingston
3.9
ST Johnstone
3.8
Dundee Utd
3.7
Dundee
3.6
ST Mirren
3.3
Celtic
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.9
Motherwell
26.6
Heart Of Midlothian
25.0
Dundee
25.0
Livingston
24.9
Ross County
24.8
Hibernian
24.4
ST Johnstone
24.0
Dundee Utd
23.5
ST Mirren
23.3
Rangers
23.3
Celtic
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
67.3%
Under 9.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
63.1%
Under 3.5
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
63.1%
Under 21.5
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ST Mirren
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.63
0.29
0.43
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.29
1.29
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.35
0.25
0.25
0.78
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.57
0.88
0.38
1.00
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.33
1.67
0.50
1.00
0.00
3.00
vs Weaker (27)
1.00
0.44
0.93
0.29
1.08
0.62
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ST Mirren
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.50
0.50
0.44
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.92
0.67
0.50
0.29
1.29
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.65
0.38
0.50
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.30
1.06
0.31
1.07
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (27)
1.15
0.33
1.14
0.36
1.15
0.31
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
ST Mirren · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paul Nsio33%
Samuel Ramos33%
Luke Thomas0%
Alexander Gogić0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Jake Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
Eseosa Sule0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ryan Carr100%
Luke Thomas33%
Jake Young33%
Alexander Gogić0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Paul Nsio0%
Eseosa Sule0%
Samuel Ramos0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexander Gogić33%
Samuel Ramos33%
Luke Thomas0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Jake Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
Paul Nsio0%
Eseosa Sule0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Eseosa Sule67%
Luke Thomas0%
Alexander Gogić0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Jake Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
Paul Nsio0%
Samuel Ramos0%
Rangers · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Thelo Aasgaard33%
Lawrence Shankland20%
Ryan Don Naderi20%
Cameron Devlin0%
Ivor Pandur0%
Dan Neil0%
Dujon Sterling0%
James Penrice0%
Daisuke Yokota0%
Emmanuel Fernandez0%
Djeidi Gassama0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Olwethu Makhanya0%
Findlay Curtis0%
Vanja Dragojević0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dan Neil50%
Dujon Sterling50%
Vanja Dragojević33%
Cameron Devlin25%
Lawrence Shankland20%
Emmanuel Fernandez20%
Findlay Curtis20%
Ivor Pandur0%
James Penrice0%
Daisuke Yokota0%
Thelo Aasgaard0%
Ryan Don Naderi0%
Djeidi Gassama0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Olwethu Makhanya0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daisuke Yokota25%
Cameron Devlin0%
Ivor Pandur0%
Dan Neil0%
Dujon Sterling0%
Lawrence Shankland0%
James Penrice0%
Thelo Aasgaard0%
Ryan Don Naderi0%
Emmanuel Fernandez0%
Djeidi Gassama0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Olwethu Makhanya0%
Findlay Curtis0%
Vanja Dragojević0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thelo Aasgaard33%
Vanja Dragojević33%
Djeidi Gassama20%
Cameron Devlin0%
Ivor Pandur0%
Dan Neil0%
Dujon Sterling0%
Lawrence Shankland0%
James Penrice0%
Daisuke Yokota0%
Ryan Don Naderi0%
Emmanuel Fernandez0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Olwethu Makhanya0%
Findlay Curtis0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
ST Mirren's squad is €129m less valuable than Rangers's (€8m vs €136m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
ST Mirren's attack is €37m less valuable than Rangers's (€1m vs €38m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
ST Mirren's midfield is €41m less valuable than Rangers's (€3m vs €44m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
ST Mirren's defence is €50m less valuable than Rangers's (€3m vs €54m).
Scotland: Premiership 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Heart Of Midlothian
Livingston
Dundee Utd
Motherwell
Hibernian
Aberdeen
Ross County
ST Johnstone
Dundee