This opponent (Lyon) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
0.93
2.07
0.87
1.80
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.00
-
-
1.50
2.00
vs Similar (10)
2.20
1.20
2.40
1.00
2.00
1.40
vs Weaker (18)
1.83
0.67
1.90
0.80
1.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Brestois 29) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.6%
Under 1.5
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.8%
@ 1.39-1.5%
Under 2.5
33.2%
@ 2.99+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
45.0%
Under 3.5
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.6%
No
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.6%
1-1
9.5%
0-2
7.9%
1-3
7.2%
0-1
6.3%
0-3
5.9%
2-2
5.9%
2-1
5.3%
Stade Brestois 29 goals ↓
Lyon goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
6.3%
7.9%
5.9%
3.3%
1
3.0%
9.5%
9.6%
7.2%
4.0%
2
2.4%
5.3%
5.9%
4.3%
2.4%
3
1.0%
2.1%
2.4%
1.8%
1.0%
4
0.3%
0.6%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stade Brestois 29 goals (down), columns = Lyon goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lille
2.18
Paris Saint Germain
2.16
Monaco
2.05
Lyon
2.00
Marseille
1.58
Rennes
1.53
Lens
1.50
Montpellier
1.42
Nice
1.37
Metz
1.24
Saint Etienne
1.21
Bordeaux
1.18
Angers
1.16
Reims
1.11
Strasbourg
1.11
Lorient
1.11
Stade Brestois 29
1.08
Nantes
1.05
Nimes
0.92
Dijon
0.55
Stade Brestois 29 is 0.92 points worse than Lyon in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.26
Lyon
2.13
Monaco
2.00
Lille
1.68
Montpellier
1.58
Lens
1.45
Marseille
1.42
Rennes
1.37
Nice
1.32
Stade Brestois 29
1.32
Lorient
1.32
Strasbourg
1.29
Nantes
1.24
Metz
1.16
Reims
1.11
Saint Etienne
1.11
Bordeaux
1.11
Nimes
1.05
Angers
1.05
Dijon
0.66
Stade Brestois 29 is 0.82 goals worse than Lyon in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 2.13).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lille
0.61
Paris Saint Germain
0.74
Rennes
1.05
Monaco
1.11
Lyon
1.13
Marseille
1.24
Metz
1.26
Reims
1.32
Nice
1.39
Lens
1.42
Saint Etienne
1.42
Nantes
1.45
Bordeaux
1.47
Angers
1.53
Strasbourg
1.53
Montpellier
1.63
Stade Brestois 29
1.74
Lorient
1.79
Nimes
1.87
Dijon
1.92
Stade Brestois 29 is 0.61 goals worse than Lyon in terms of goals conceded per game (1.74 vs 1.13).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stade Brestois 29
For 4.5 · Against 4.2 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 12.4 · Total 24.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lyon
For 6.5 · Against 3.7 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 11.9 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stade Brestois 29
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.0
10.1
3.6
3.7
3.4
23.8
23.5
24.1
vs Stronger (11)
10.5
10.4
10.7
3.5
4.6
2.5
23.8
25.4
22.5
vs Similar (28)
9.3
9.4
9.2
3.4
3.5
3.3
23.4
23.0
23.9
vs Weaker (11)
11.3
11.5
11.1
4.1
3.5
4.4
24.9
23.2
25.9
% over line
60%
62%
58%
44%
50%
38%
60%
62%
58%
% under line
40%
38%
42%
56%
50%
62%
40%
38%
42%
This opponent (Lyon) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
11.2
8.9
4.2
4.3
4.1
24.5
23.8
25.2
vs Stronger (3)
10.7
13.0
9.5
3.7
2.0
4.5
22.3
14.0
26.5
vs Similar (16)
10.4
11.6
9.2
4.8
5.0
4.5
25.2
24.9
25.5
vs Weaker (31)
9.8
10.9
8.6
4.0
4.1
3.9
24.3
23.8
24.8
% over line
46%
56%
36%
62%
60%
64%
76%
64%
88%
% under line
54%
44%
64%
38%
40%
36%
24%
36%
12%
This opponent (Stade Brestois 29) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bordeaux
10.6
Nice
10.5
Metz
10.4
Dijon
10.2
Paris Saint Germain
10.2
Montpellier
10.0
Lyon
10.0
Stade Brestois 29
10.0
Nimes
9.8
Angers
9.7
Lorient
9.7
Marseille
9.7
Nantes
9.6
Monaco
9.5
Saint Etienne
9.4
Reims
9.3
Strasbourg
9.1
Lens
9.1
Rennes
9.1
Lille
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Marseille
5.1
Lens
4.9
Nimes
4.8
Montpellier
4.7
Monaco
4.6
Saint Etienne
4.5
Nice
4.4
Nantes
4.4
Bordeaux
4.3
Lyon
4.2
Rennes
4.2
Lorient
4.2
Lille
4.1
Reims
4.0
Paris Saint Germain
3.9
Metz
3.9
Strasbourg
3.8
Angers
3.8
Dijon
3.6
Stade Brestois 29
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Lens
29.8
Rennes
27.8
Montpellier
27.8
Saint Etienne
27.2
Nantes
26.8
Nimes
26.7
Lille
26.7
Bordeaux
26.1
Marseille
26.1
Dijon
26.0
Reims
26.0
Lorient
26.0
Metz
25.8
Monaco
25.7
Strasbourg
25.1
Angers
24.8
Nice
24.6
Lyon
24.5
Paris Saint Germain
23.9
Stade Brestois 29
23.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
48.5%
Under 9.5
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
57.0%
Under 3.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
74.8%
Under 21.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stade Brestois 29
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.80
1.36
0.79
0.38
0.81
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
0.67
1.67
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (20)
0.90
0.90
1.40
0.80
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyon) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.47
1.27
0.40
0.80
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
-
-
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (10)
1.50
0.70
1.80
0.40
1.20
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
0.83
0.28
1.00
0.40
0.62
0.12
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Brestois 29) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stade Brestois 29
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.87
0.57
0.93
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.80
0.50
1.00
0.70
0.60
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyon) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.47
0.80
0.47
1.00
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.50
0.60
0.60
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (18)
1.00
0.39
0.90
0.40
1.12
0.38
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Brestois 29) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Stade Brestois 29 · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Romain Del Castillo27%
Ludovic Ajorque22%
Remy Labeau Lascary21%
Julien Le Cardinal17%
Kamory Doumbia17%
Junior Dina Ebimbe15%
Mama Baldé11%
Joris Chotard6%
Lucas Tousart4%
Daouda Guindo4%
Pathé Mboup4%
Brendan Chardonnet3%
Hugo Magnetti3%
Grégoire Coudert0%
Kenny Lala0%
Radosław Majecki0%
Soumaila Coulibaly0%
Bradley Locko0%
Michel Diaz0%
Luc Zogbé0%
Hamidou Makalou0%
Raphaël Le Guen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ludovic Ajorque28%
Kamory Doumbia25%
Michel Diaz24%
Brendan Chardonnet23%
Pathé Mboup21%
Soumaila Coulibaly19%
Julien Le Cardinal17%
Daouda Guindo15%
Hugo Magnetti15%
Kenny Lala15%
Junior Dina Ebimbe11%
Grégoire Coudert8%
Remy Labeau Lascary7%
Romain Del Castillo6%
Joris Chotard6%
Lucas Tousart0%
Radosław Majecki0%
Mama Baldé0%
Bradley Locko0%
Luc Zogbé0%
Hamidou Makalou0%
Raphaël Le Guen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ludovic Ajorque22%
Kamory Doumbia17%
Romain Del Castillo12%
Mama Baldé11%
Brendan Chardonnet10%
Kenny Lala9%
Bradley Locko9%
Daouda Guindo4%
Remy Labeau Lascary4%
Hugo Magnetti3%
Joris Chotard3%
Lucas Tousart0%
Grégoire Coudert0%
Radosław Majecki0%
Julien Le Cardinal0%
Junior Dina Ebimbe0%
Soumaila Coulibaly0%
Michel Diaz0%
Pathé Mboup0%
Luc Zogbé0%
Hamidou Makalou0%
Raphaël Le Guen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ludovic Ajorque19%
Julien Le Cardinal17%
Mama Baldé16%
Kamory Doumbia8%
Remy Labeau Lascary7%
Pathé Mboup7%
Romain Del Castillo6%
Joris Chotard6%
Junior Dina Ebimbe4%
Brendan Chardonnet3%
Lucas Tousart0%
Hugo Magnetti0%
Grégoire Coudert0%
Kenny Lala0%
Radosław Majecki0%
Soumaila Coulibaly0%
Bradley Locko0%
Daouda Guindo0%
Michel Diaz0%
Luc Zogbé0%
Hamidou Makalou0%
Raphaël Le Guen0%
Lyon · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Loïs Openda40%
Noah Nartey33%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles25%
Ernest Nuamah20%
Tyler Morton17%
Malick Fofana17%
Clinton Mata0%
Corentin Tolisso0%
Abner Vinícius0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Pavel Šulc0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Noah Nartey33%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles25%
Loïs Openda20%
Abner Vinícius20%
Clinton Mata0%
Corentin Tolisso0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Pavel Šulc0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Tyler Morton0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Ernest Nuamah0%
Malick Fofana0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Corentin Tolisso33%
Pavel Šulc33%
Zachary Athekame33%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles25%
Clinton Mata0%
Loïs Openda0%
Abner Vinícius0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Tyler Morton0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Ernest Nuamah0%
Malick Fofana0%
Noah Nartey0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Loïs Openda40%
Corentin Tolisso33%
Malick Fofana33%
Kaïl Boudache20%
Tyler Morton17%
Clinton Mata0%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles0%
Abner Vinícius0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Pavel Šulc0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Ernest Nuamah0%
Noah Nartey0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
NIC (28)
€152m
SE (30)
€93m
LOR (24)
€87m
NAN (25)
€82m
ANG (23)
€73m
REI (30)
€72m
SB2 (20)
€64m
MET (26)
€43m
MON (24)
€29m
DIJ (20)
€5m
Stade Brestois 29's squad is €230m less valuable than Lyon's (€64m vs €293m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
SE (10)
€54m
LEN (8)
€52m
REI (12)
€38m
NAN (8)
€31m
ANG (9)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
LOR (8)
€20m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
DIJ (7)
€1m
Stade Brestois 29's attack is €97m less valuable than Lyon's (€25m vs €122m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
REN (5)
€44m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
LEN (5)
€24m
SB2 (6)
€20m
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
REI (6)
€13m
ANG (3)
€11m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
DIJ (6)
€2m
Stade Brestois 29's midfield is €63m less valuable than Lyon's (€20m vs €82m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
NIC (11)
€60m
LOR (11)
€35m
NAN (10)
€34m
ANG (11)
€32m
SE (13)
€28m
REI (12)
€21m
SB2 (8)
€19m
MON (10)
€12m
MET (10)
€8m
DIJ (7)
€2m
Stade Brestois 29's defence is €70m less valuable than Lyon's (€19m vs €89m).
France: Ligue 1 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Lille
Paris Saint Germain
Monaco
Marseille
Rennes
Lens
Montpellier
Nice
Metz
Saint Etienne
Bordeaux
Angers
Reims
Strasbourg
Lorient
Nantes
Nimes
Dijon