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Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Bellinzona Result & Analysis

Date: 09/05/2025
Time: 17:30
Final 1-1
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Vs
56%
24%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Bellinzona
Bellinzona
Switzerland: Challenge League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win✗ Miss
56.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bellinzona win✗ Miss
19.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Stade Lausanne-OuchyStade Lausanne-Ouchy

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W12L01L10W30W22D32W00D01L21WH·FC 28/02A·FC 09/03H·FC 15/03A·FC 28/03H·FC 31/03A·FC 04/04A·FC 11/04H·NEU18/04H·STA26/04A·ÉTO02/05
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.231.671.131.401.33
vs Stronger (3)1.671.002.000.501.002.00
vs Similar (23)1.391.221.361.181.421.25
vs Weaker (4)2.251.503.001.501.501.50
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Bellinzona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BellinzonaBellinzona

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-711D03L13L03L11D07L31W21W22D31WA·NEU02/03H·FC 08/03A·FC 16/03A·STA28/03H·FC 31/03A·ÉTO05/04H·FC 12/04H·STA18/04A·FC 27/04H·NEU03/05
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.671.271.271.202.07
vs Stronger (7)1.001.570.671.671.251.50
vs Similar (23)1.301.701.421.171.182.27
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%014%124%222%316%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.1%
Under 1.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.2%
Under 2.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.8%
Under 3.5
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.1%
No
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
11.6%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.5%
1-0
9.0%
0-0
6.4%
3-1
6.2%
3-0
6.0%
1-2
5.5%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy goals ↓
Bellinzona goals →
01234
06.4%4.5%2.9%1.0%0.3%
19.0%12%5.5%1.9%0.5%
29.5%9.9%5.2%1.8%0.5%
36.0%6.2%3.3%1.1%0.3%
42.8%2.9%1.5%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stade Lausanne-Ouchy goals (down), columns = Bellinzona goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Thun
2.00
FC Aarau
1.69
Étoile Carouge
1.50
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.47
FC Vaduz
1.42
FC WIL 1900
1.39
Bellinzona
1.31
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.14
Stade Nyonnais
1.00
FC Schaffhausen
0.78
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is 0.17 points better than Bellinzona in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 1.31).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Thun
1.94
FC Aarau
1.75
Étoile Carouge
1.61
FC WIL 1900
1.61
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.58
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.50
Bellinzona
1.33
FC Vaduz
1.33
Stade Nyonnais
1.22
FC Schaffhausen
1.11
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is 0.17 goals better than Bellinzona in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Thun
1.08
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.19
FC Aarau
1.25
Étoile Carouge
1.31
FC Vaduz
1.36
Bellinzona
1.58
FC WIL 1900
1.58
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.81
FC Schaffhausen
1.92
Stade Nyonnais
1.92
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is 0.39 goals better than Bellinzona in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.58).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Stade Lausanne-OuchyStade Lausanne-Ouchy

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W00D00D00D10W20W30W00D00D01LH·FC 28/02A·FC 09/03H·FC 15/03A·FC 28/03H·FC 31/03A·FC 04/04A·FC 11/04H·NEU18/04H·STA26/04A·ÉTO02/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.470.870.400.600.53
vs Stronger (3)0.670.001.000.000.000.00
vs Similar (23)0.740.570.910.450.580.67
vs Weaker (4)0.750.250.500.501.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Bellinzona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BellinzonaBellinzona

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D02L02L02L11D02L10W10W01L11DA·NEU02/03H·FC 08/03A·FC 16/03A·STA28/03H·FC 31/03A·ÉTO05/04H·FC 12/04H·STA18/04A·FC 27/04H·NEU03/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.870.600.600.401.13
vs Stronger (7)0.430.860.331.330.500.50
vs Similar (23)0.520.870.670.420.361.36
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bellinzona over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bellinzona over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bellinzona over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Stade Lausanne-OuchyStade Lausanne-Ouchy

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D12L01L10W20W02L02L00D01L20WH·FC 28/02A·FC 09/03H·FC 15/03A·FC 28/03H·FC 31/03A·FC 04/04A·FC 11/04H·NEU18/04H·STA26/04A·ÉTO02/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.770.800.730.800.80
vs Stronger (3)1.001.001.000.501.002.00
vs Similar (23)0.650.650.450.730.830.58
vs Weaker (4)1.501.252.501.000.501.50
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Bellinzona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BellinzonaBellinzona

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D01L11D01L00D05L21W11D21W20WA·NEU02/03H·FC 08/03A·FC 16/03A·STA28/03H·FC 31/03A·ÉTO05/04H·FC 12/04H·STA18/04A·FC 27/04H·NEU03/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.800.670.670.800.93
vs Stronger (7)0.570.710.330.330.751.00
vs Similar (23)0.780.830.750.750.820.91
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bellinzona over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bellinzona over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bellinzona over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.1%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ismael Gharbi21%
Alban Ajdini19%
Vitalie Damașcan12%
Mischa Eberhard12%
Elies Mahmoud12%
Ibrahim Diakité10%
Liridon Mulaj10%
Mergim Qarri9%
Gabriel Kyeremateng8%
Lucas Pos7%
Florian Danho7%
Giovani Bamba5%
Ryan Kadima4%
Sahmkou Camara4%
Dylan Ouedraogo0%
Abdallah Ali Mohamed0%
Lamine Gassama0%
Ogou Akichi0%
Jeremy Vachoux0%
Romain Bayard0%
Dany Da Silva0%
Linus Obexer0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Charles Abi0%
Zachary Marvin Hadji0%
Lavdrim Hajrulahu0%
Nathan Garcia0%
Emmanuel Essiam0%
Michael Heule0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Linus Obexer33%
Ogou Akichi32%
Giovani Bamba32%
Dylan Ouedraogo31%
Valon Hamdiu28%
Lucas Pos25%
Mischa Eberhard25%
Ryan Kadima24%
Mergim Qarri24%
Elies Mahmoud22%
Florian Danho20%
Sahmkou Camara20%
Abdallah Ali Mohamed19%
Ismael Gharbi17%
Jeremy Vachoux16%
Lamine Gassama15%
Emmanuel Essiam14%
Vitalie Damașcan12%
Romain Bayard10%
Alban Ajdini8%
Michael Heule8%
Nathan Garcia7%
Liridon Mulaj6%
Lavdrim Hajrulahu3%
Dany Da Silva0%
Charles Abi0%
Zachary Marvin Hadji0%
Gabriel Kyeremateng0%
Ibrahim Diakité0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ismael Gharbi21%
Elies Mahmoud16%
Mergim Qarri15%
Lamine Gassama10%
Gabriel Kyeremateng8%
Florian Danho7%
Liridon Mulaj6%
Vitalie Damașcan6%
Alban Ajdini6%
Ryan Kadima4%
Abdallah Ali Mohamed4%
Ogou Akichi3%
Dylan Ouedraogo0%
Jeremy Vachoux0%
Romain Bayard0%
Dany Da Silva0%
Lucas Pos0%
Linus Obexer0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Charles Abi0%
Zachary Marvin Hadji0%
Lavdrim Hajrulahu0%
Giovani Bamba0%
Nathan Garcia0%
Mischa Eberhard0%
Emmanuel Essiam0%
Michael Heule0%
Ibrahim Diakité0%
Sahmkou Camara0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Florian Danho33%
Alban Ajdini14%
Ismael Gharbi14%
Liridon Mulaj6%
Vitalie Damașcan6%
Elies Mahmoud3%
Dylan Ouedraogo0%
Abdallah Ali Mohamed0%
Lamine Gassama0%
Ogou Akichi0%
Jeremy Vachoux0%
Romain Bayard0%
Ryan Kadima0%
Dany Da Silva0%
Lucas Pos0%
Linus Obexer0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Charles Abi0%
Zachary Marvin Hadji0%
Lavdrim Hajrulahu0%
Giovani Bamba0%
Mergim Qarri0%
Nathan Garcia0%
Mischa Eberhard0%
Gabriel Kyeremateng0%
Emmanuel Essiam0%
Michael Heule0%
Ibrahim Diakité0%
Sahmkou Camara0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (25)
€17m
SL (24)
€6m
FV (26)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
NXF (26)
€5m
BEL (34)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
ÉC (23)
€4m
SN (21)
€3m
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's squad is €1m more valuable than Bellinzona's (€6m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (7)
€4m
SL (9)
€3m
FV (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
BEL (11)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
ÉC (6)
€1m
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Bellinzona have a similar attack value (both €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (8)
€5m
FV (8)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
BEL (8)
€1m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
ÉC (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Bellinzona have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (10)
€8m
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
BEL (15)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
ÉC (12)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Bellinzona have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
5
SL wins
1
Draws
1
BEL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Bellinzona · H/A from SL
DateH/AGameScore
15/02/25ABellinzona Vs SL0-1
19/10/24HSL Vs Bellinzona1-1
24/09/24ABellinzona Vs SL2-1
27/05/23HSL Vs Bellinzona6-0
05/03/23ABellinzona Vs SL0-1
05/11/22HSL Vs Bellinzona2-1
30/07/22ABellinzona Vs SL1-4

Stade Lausanne-OuchyStade Lausanne-Ouchy

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/05/25AÉtoile Carouge Vs SL1-2
26/04/25HSL Vs Stade Nyonnais0-1
18/04/25HSL Vs Neuchatel Xamax FC0-0
11/04/25AFC Schaffhausen Vs SL2-3
04/04/25AFC Aarau Vs SL2-2
31/03/25HSL Vs FC Thun3-0
28/03/25AFC Vaduz Vs SL0-1
15/03/25HSL Vs FC Schaffhausen0-1
09/03/25AFC Thun Vs SL2-1
28/02/25HSL Vs FC WIL 19002-1

BellinzonaBellinzona

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/05/25HBEL Vs Neuchatel Xamax FC3-1
27/04/25AFC WIL 1900 Vs BEL2-2
18/04/25HBEL Vs Stade Nyonnais2-1
12/04/25HBEL Vs FC Vaduz3-1
05/04/25AÉtoile Carouge Vs BEL7-0
31/03/25HBEL Vs FC Aarau1-1
28/03/25AStade Nyonnais Vs BEL3-0
16/03/25AFC Vaduz Vs BEL3-1
08/03/25HBEL Vs FC WIL 19000-3
02/03/25ANeuchatel Xamax FC Vs BEL1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDLW1.22
HomeWLWDL1.21
AwayLWDWW1.23
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%29%35%
AVG goals2.782.712.85
Over 1.5 %74%71%77%
Over 2.5 %56%46%65%
Over 3.5 %30%29%31%
Scored1.321.381.27
Conceded1.461.331.58
BTTS60%58%62%
Clean Sheet16%17%15%
Corners8.538.128.89
Cards4.293.255.22
Bellinzona
Bellinzona
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDW1.16
HomeLDWWW1.36
AwayDLLLD0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%36%24%
AVG goals2.842.563.12
Over 1.5 %86%80%92%
Over 2.5 %62%52%72%
Over 3.5 %26%20%32%
Scored1.261.321.20
Conceded1.581.241.92
BTTS62%56%68%
Clean Sheet16%20%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC ThunFC Thun3672
58%
2.0
7039+31
3.0
83%
56%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
4581.91.1
-
2FC AarauFC Aarau3661
44%
1.7
6345+18
3.0
83%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2131.81.2
-
3Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge3654
42%
1.5
5847+11
2.9
75%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.61.3
-
4Stade Lausanne-OuchyStade Lausanne-Ouchy3653
39%
1.5
5443+11
2.7
72%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3121.51.2
-
5FC VaduzFC Vaduz3651
36%
1.4
4849-1
2.7
69%
50%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.31.4
-
6FC WIL 1900FC WIL 19003650
36%
1.4
5857+1
3.2
89%
67%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.61.6
-
7BellinzonaBellinzona3647
33%
1.3
4857-9
2.9
92%
67%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.31.6
-
8Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC3641
33%
1.1
5765-8
3.4
92%
75%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.8
-
9Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais3636
28%
1.0
4469-25
3.1
83%
67%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.21.9
-
10FC SchaffhausenFC Schaffhausen3628
19%
0.8
4069-29
3.0
78%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
Switzerland: Challenge League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →

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